USCAPEWEATHERAF

I am good. I just found it interesting, the change between six hours.

Come on Tip, there is a big difference between the 12z garbage crap, and the 18z solution out to 84 hours, again the storm is not done, so we don't know the end result.

HOLY NAM! The model is pushed the trough east, less amped, more progressive, but also a better overall structure between the potential phase.

Wow 18z NAM is a lot slower with the northern branch system and allows the southern system to go and move ahead of the northern trough.

18z NAM is more amped with the northern branch disturbance and closes off at H5 at 51 hours. The southern stream energy is also amped and more organized. It is also ahead of the northern branch system, this could be a good run.

No, they are not great, but they do share amplified members, and we can use them for guidance.

12z UKMET is a real good scenario, the 15z SREFs I believe are the current northern outliers and how far the system goes north, the GFS is bonkers. Again, not sold until we get about 30 hours closer. Just interesting to follow the trends. Our disturbance in question is coming onshore in coastal British Columbia, Canada.

Yeah, it was used a ton during the week before the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard. I remember that storm because we rained during most of it here. I also was heading to Basic Military Training for the Air Force two weeks later. I missed the January 11th 2011 storm and ones after that. However, I heard the January 10/11th storm was rain here on the Cape, while my flight was postponed and I got stuck at O'Hare in Chicago. We had a bad snowstorm there the night of the tenth. I remember in that storm, the days leading up, we were debating about the backside energy entering the long wave trough and whether or not it would catch our main system and pull it west, and it did, too far west, clobbering NYC and Fairfield, CT while SE MA and BOS suffered dry slot issues.

Wow that run is a classic storm for our area, the freezing line is southeast of ACK closest to the surface low. Wow, look at the deformation. 12z EURO looked colder a better phase. Again, I am not jumping in until we get closer to a consensus and the northern branch disturbance is better sampled.

I wouldn't say that system worked out at all, I rained and rained for 36 hours. It was awful and we had fog Monday and Tuesday.

I would wait another 24 hours. Not real confident on this system until that northern branch disturbance makes it closer to the US/Canada border in MT. I would give it 24 hours, 12z tomorrow.

Oh well, we have at least another 2 days before the models get a clue as that backside energy will help determine the outcome at the surface. That northern stream h5 low that dives through the Midwest and Northern Plains into the backside of the longwave trough will help determine where we end up, the intensity and timing of that system will help figure out the results. Friday 12z runs we should have a better idea and consensus track and intensity.

**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE. Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.** A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US. Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source. I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.

I agree Will, I really like the amped solutions, question is, is there enough of a push southward for the amped H5 low to move south and east of CHH, not overhead or west of CHH.

GFS shows mid 40s for CHH on Saturday, but the cold arrives on Sunday and lasts the next few days. At least according to the 00z GFS MOS guidance.

There is a presence of a ridge out west, far enough west to get an amplified system to move through the region. Problem becomes lack of a cold source and a true arctic source of cold air present for an all out snowstorm.

Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family. Love you all. Hope to a snowy winter ahead.

Happy New Year everyone. Hope everyone has a great and safe night of celebrating. here is to a wonderful new and successful decade of health and fortune.

All I can say to sum up what the pattern looks like the next ten days for coastal SE MA, is "Meh" a good ten day period to write a novel. I will update once something pops on the radar. Enjoy the 50s tomorrow.

At least I won't have to worry about breaking my back if I slip on ice, because there won't be ice to slip on the next few weeks. Rain is at least a safe precipitation.

Wow at the 18z GFS around January 6-8th period, a 936mb low east of CHH

Hope she recovers back to full strength.

The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period. Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year. The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period. Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload of cold air into the Arctic and then unleashed into Canada and then the US. End of the month models are showing several coastal storm threats. Time will tell, the NAO goes negative, the PNA goes positive and the AO goes negative. That supports highly anomalous cold in the eastern CONUS and a high likelihood of snow. Time will tell!

Yes sir, can't wait.

After this reload the next week or so, the end of the Christmas week models are trending towards the trifecta of good teleconnections, the PNA is rising positive, NAO heading negative and the AO is supposed to be neutral to negative. The supposed great H5 anomalies will favor Eastern CONUS cold and sustained cold. -NAO/-AO/+PNA favors the coastal locations for above normal period of snow and cold the first week of January. This change in teleconnections occurs the last weekend of DEC.