USCAPEWEATHERAF

Nah, after 84 hours that secondary was going to explode, look at H5, that energy entering the trough.

I don't mind the 72 hour EURO low position for the Cape and SE MA to get snow out of this. 989mb low east of the BM. That is a good location for the Cape to see at least 3-6"

You know what the models might be sensing is the presence of that upper vortex over the northern Great Lakes stuck in the northern branch flow pattern and just sits and pivots over northwestern Ontario province. That could be leading to a less amplified solution and therefore the flow remains progressive as the upper vortex speeds the flow over the eastern US and western Atlantic until it hits the buckle in the flow as it heads towards Newfoundland. The second trough in the next five to seven days, looks to have legit room to amplify on the Eastern Seaboard, the GFS and CMC might be feeling too amped right now.

They can have this mess, we want the next one, CMC is a bomb, but again too far west, I think that system has a better chance at being a level or notch below blockbuster. That trough is super energized when it swings our direction and it also has more room to go negative.

I am interested in the January 7-9th period, that clipper looks very energetic at H5.

maybe

It is still a piece of the puzzle. However that clipper over the Great Lakes looks very ominous at the surface and at H5.

NAM is a lot quicker in the flow now, with the day 4-5 system right on its heels in the northern Great Lakes with snow breaking out over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by hour 84, that system could become the miller B snowstorm.

I actually like the day 5 threat more for SNE and coastal peeps like myself. Cold air will be established and the trough will be south.

Our northern stream system looks very healthy this morning.

I would say another 12-18 hours before we know the strength of the northern branch system now moving into Alberta Province, Canada. Water Vapor imagery shows this system very well, and the southern stream upper low is moving eastward.

Oh the snow would continue eastward if the 18z EURO went longer than 90 hours.

Thanks Ray, I am trying

We just want the model to be a part of the consensus, doesn't mean we are buying what it is selling.

**Alert Level - Awareness!** Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness. Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period. January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period. We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle. That is all for this moment, another alert level will be issued tomorrow around the same time, we will either continue alert level awareness or upgrade to potential. The next update tomorrow evening.

It does, still not enough separation like the NAM shows. It will be the last to the party if that solution ends up correct.

18z GFS shows more separation between streams, a slower northern branch system is evident

The change bringing the storm south is a slower and more amplified northern branch system allowing the southern branch system to move in tandem or slightly in front of the northern stream. This would allow a better and smoother phase between the branches allowing a stronger surface low to embark south of ACK. This also infuses the cold air to change the rain to snow.

that is the huge difference between the models south of the area with the H5 closed low and those that are north and opened with the h5 trough.

I deserve the criticism, the service of our country doesn't absolve me of that. My enthusiasm needs to be tamed.

The 18z ICON brought the heaviest accumulations to Cape Cod as the changeover occurs the intensity increased as it cooled over the Cape. Something interesting in the dynamics of weather.

EURO and the EPS is also in that group.

The strongest presence of any ridging is way east of Bermuda over the central North Atlantic Ocean. I just find it interesting.

The surface high over the SE US, more towards FL is not strong at all, it is low, for a high, around 1018mb.

RIP David Stern, such a big loss.