USCAPEWEATHERAF

I don't know, I hope none.

Although my love for extreme weather will never dwindle, no matter how many tornadoes I will have to face in the future, I love these type of systems where the questions will always exist until the storm is 150 miles northeast of Provincetown, MA and the dry northwest winds prevail. The puzzle is as interesting as anything. The puzzle where the pieces are always moving and evolving. The suspense and mystery is where the fun is. The anticipation before the snow starts that is the fun. Also storms like Juno, Neptune, NEMO and Blizzard of 2005 are all awesome to witness. My dad was plowing that Sunday afternoon in Jan 2005 Blizzard, and I told him with about 18" of snow on the ground, I told him another 18 was on the way.

Bob, that is more likely than moving that shortwave out of NNE.

00z NAM is slowing the main shortwave, digging the secondary northern stream energy over Central Canada and the western Lakes region. This allows for a better phase to occur earlier, off the VA Capes instead of off the Delmarva coast. We got a trend in the right direction.

NAM is looking a lot better with the northern stream lead shortwave and the primary disturbance in the southern stream at 33 hours. A much more amplified 500mb pattern aloft, with a stronger western ridge and a weaker pacific west coast kicker disturbance. This is all leading to a more amplified storm for Tuesday/Wednesday.

Yeah, the northern stream lead shortwave is further north and less in the way of the main shortwave that provides our coastal storm energy so that it will amplify more and come west, at least it is better in the firs 24 hours of the run.

If the phase happens sooner, it will be because the northern stream is faster allowing the sooner phase, also the phase happens soon enough if it tilts negative first before hitting the coastline. It is dependent on the northern stream

That is where I am from, Outer Cape

Brian, I would take your scenario over Will's to be honest, but either one works, I just think the models have less of a case with the phase then they would with the lead shortwave moving. The potential for a phase is still present, 60 hours out is enough time, plenty of time for the guidance to swing in the other direction, we need a benchmark position with a sub 985mb low. Anything about that intensity will not get us the banding intense enough to get the needed rates for a 6"+ amounts, but if the storm ends up blowing up before the benchmark and is sub-980mbs we will get a huge impactful storm. That disturbance that dives into the trough and tries to phase with the southern branch system is still over the British Columbia, Canadian province. There are less RAOBs out there to get a good enough sample on the system.

You don't think there is a phasing component still? I mean there are two branches that end up interacting off the East Coast and Western Atlantic, but again timing is really off.

I believe Juno was a last second 48 hour forecast change by the model guidance.

The problem is not the progressive nature, but rather two streams are differing speeds. If both the southern and northern branches of the split jet pattern were progressive in nature there would be a greater likelihood of phasing, but with two streams at odds in speed the potential for phasing decreases. However, I am not seeing the northern branch lead disturbance over the Great Lakes today as a problem for our coastal storm and its track up the coast. In fact, it is the phasing of the two jets. With lack of a strong +PNA ridge in place out west, to slow down the northern stream phasing is reliant on the southern branch and its potential strength and orientation. We have a lot to decide in the next 24 hours.

Scott I am seeing signs on water vapor imagery that the models might be representing the northern stream surge seen over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Huge push northeast.

Water Vapor shows a strong northern branch jet push. There is a strong jet forcing behind the lead northern stream shortwave disturbance. This might be pushing our northern stream lead systems ahead before it has impacts on the 7/8th storm.

To me that amount of energy is intense, there will be waffling with this type of phasing details.

I am giving it time,

Never expecting a monster storm, just a few inches is still plausible

maybe the trend of a better shortwave could offset that northern stream lead shortwave.

Anyone have the latest 12z UKMET model run?

Actually while the 12z NAM was east of the 6z run, it was much quicker in intensifying the low as it passes the Benchmark and then passes ACK. It was very explosive this run, 970mb east of CHH.

00z model cycle continues to improve from the far east runs yesterday of the 12z cycle, with the latest 00z UKMET run now over the BM. I could see further trends towards a more intense low, faster development and higher rates of precipitation.

I hope we start a new thread for the Jan 7/8th threat after the 12z runs come in.

lol, I was wondering if that was a typo

If you are reasonable, then this system will provide, but you think it will be 12"+ then sure it is disappointing. You should never give up on an event 66 hours out with the mess the models have been recently.

Huh???? I have a seen a large tick west with the models as of the 00z set so far. NAM is west, SREFs are west, GFS is west, CMC is fine, ICON sucks, we are waiting on the UKMET and EURO tonight. Other models ticked west and have at least 3-5 inches for the Cape and SE MA.