USCAPEWEATHERAF

Will I know lightning has a significant role in these storms. With the explosion over the last two hours, and especially in the last hour, with 200 plus additional strikes every 20 minutes off the East Coast in the warm sector where the instability support has really gotten going today as the secondary low developed and starts to intensify.

You might not anticipate those amounts given the rapid movement of the low, but if we get that band of 6 hours of 2-3" an hour.

This system could produce heavy snow as far west as Islip, NY

Any snow in Fairfield CT?

Our storm is coming in hot!! I think it ends up 20 miles west with the heaviest banding.

Will, I think this might end up 20 miles to the west, look at the pressure falls off the DE and NJ coastlines, they are not out in the ocean, they are just offshore. This suggests there is a westward pull on the surface low track from the upper level energy diving into the trough. We could see an explosion of development as lightning has exploded along the cold front of the secondary low over the warm western Atlantic Ocean waters. Upper-level support is diving towards the DE coastline and once this impinges on the low it will bomb out. We could see huge upswing in amounts.

I am almost 50 miles too far west to get 18-24" according to the UKIE, which is why I have needed to watch the wobbles the whole time with this system.

NAM looked really good from canal east.

The 9z SREFs have snow in NYC metro and Long Island.

I-95 corridor from eastern CT to NE MA - 2-4" SE MA interior includes city of Boston, MA 2-4" Cape Cod Canal eastward to Hyannis 4-6" Hyannis eastward to Provincetown 6"+ Snowfall forecasts for the January 7/8, 2029 Snow event

Our surface low has moved out of TN and is now in western VA.

Not with the cold at 925mb and the dynamical cooling process and the fact that when the 850mb low closes off it cools almost 6-8 degrees Celsius

They aren't high enough, ACK gets over 1.2" of QPF.

I am going to sleep early tonight, long day tomorrow and night.

Oh and with such cold 925mb temps and 850mb temps, dynamical cooling will take care of any BL issues.

Plus this is a month later than the previous storms early DEC, the ocean is a lot colder to the northeast which is where the winds will be out of, not the southeast.

There is no rain with this storm, the GFS is cold through the layer. The model would give ACK 12"+ and CHH over 6", the problem is the band goes NEward not Nward, so it hits ACK but misses CHH by 10 miles to the southeast. Oh and a 1016mb is good enough to track.

The influence from the shortwave we have now dubbed SS is now losing influence and being pushed northeast by the southern jet streak.

Our surface low is now sub 1016mb over SW Interior Tennessee, southwest of Nashville, TN.

I thought we never pay attention to those models, the mesoscale models have been awful with convection developing off the East Coast.

I would say at this point, a slight shift in the SS is a huge shift in the storm track. Satellite still shows a mid-level disturbance the main energy for our coastal is still digging southward. I believe we have a benchmark track of the surface low sub 1000mb.

I am not buying the jump east, the models are following the convection that explodes as the storm hits the ocean off the Delmarva, the Gulf Stream influence. The 00z suite of models are jumping on a faster negative tilt.

Why does the precipitation cut off south of ACK and miss the Cape and then develops to the south of NS?

It shouldn't, look at the amped 700mb pattern and the 925mb low is closed at hour 21 near the Delmarva peninsula. It actually pivots.

How would I accomplish this?