USCAPEWEATHERAF

I believe the models will continue to trend with a stronger negative tilt to the Thursday shortwave and a trend further south as the west coast to rocky mountain ridging.

GFS goes ridge out west into nuclear form, the ridge is amplified so much it reaches the Arctic at hour 168

I just think we shouldn't rule it out still given the trends in the guidance. the weekend low has trended colder and the primary low is over Cape Cod and not interior NYS.

I knew it was colder this run, the 00z GFS has the low tracking over Cape Cod and not over the far interior like the previous six runs. Perhaps the -EPO/+PNA ridge is developing sooner.

The 00z GFS tries to get the shortwave to close off, but it does it 12 hours late and hundreds of miles too far east. A few more changes at H5 can get that shortwave to dive in the right location. That SE/western Atlantic Ridge needs to move faster to the west and combine with the Rockies ridge.

Unfortunately the Atlantic Ocean is still a flat zonal speedway.

The main factor for the Thursday system and whether or not the shortwave can trend southward over New England is the evolution of potential west coast ridging as a trough amplifies slows and stalls, allowing heights over the Rockies to amplify and rise.

If the NAM was extended to hour 108 or so, it would have a similar situation.

Nothing of that caliber, the only ones that huge for me were the Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard of 2015 (JUNO)

well with such a large surge north with heat we have had, it has to be released in the form of multiple storm systems moving off the East Coast. I have seen this in the past.

This 72-96 hour event has legs for SNE too. Model teleconnections show the strong potential for a mini collaboration between the NAO and PNA regions heading to a -NAO/+PNA couplet in this 15/16th period. The models all show a strong dip in the NAO and a strong rise in the PNA. There is a strong possibility that the rise and drop in the teleconnections have a bigger role in the storms intensity/location/duration for areas above 40N latitude east of 75 west longitude. A lot of people believe that the transition phases could have more impact on SNE than the Mid-Atlantic and Northern New England regions. Since during strong -NAO patterns, the Mid-Atlantic gets the storms, while a weaker -NAO to neutral stage allows SNE to get in on the goods. However, with a cooperating PNA pattern in the western CONUS this could provide a better chance for snow in the upcoming week ahead. Just a thought.

I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates: 15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow. As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box. Weather forecasting is the same basic idea. The difference and is a major difference is that that puzzle is constantly changing in every direction, every piece is changing, and every place that piece is supposed to be is changing. The weather is a puzzle in constant flux. The idea of weather systems is the transferring of heat from tropics to polar regions. A major storm develops along the boundary between extreme heat and extreme cold. It is meant to transfer that heat to the coldest reaches of the world. The world is constant balance, and needs to remain in this constant balance to sustain life and the human race and everything it encompasses. It is such a perfect design the weather makes no mistakes. However, since human error is a major problem in our lives and since it is all over the place, errors will always happen. We are not perfect. Avoiding going into a religious diatribe, I will go back to the next three events. Right now, the pattern appears to favor EPO ridging combining with the PNAP ridging present. With ridging potential in both locations, we could have a major push of cold air into the eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS in the 15/16th period. The pattern is in flux and there is hardly any agreement overall on the H5 pattern aloft. Some guidance suggests the pattern transitions from a +EPO/-PNA to a -EPO/+PNA then back and forth for these next three events. So it could be a snow event followed by rain event and then back to snow event for SNE. Right now, a lot can change even for an event in the next 72 hours. I will have more tomorrow evening. Unless something big changes.

I think there is the potential for the 15/16th system to come more southward with time, models are still up in the air with the pattern aloft across EPO/NAO regions, this will fluctuate for the next 24-36 hours. This will have a major impact on the next storm period. I am waiting to see if the models come into agreement on the synoptic pattern before I worry about the surface details.

Because it is a resource and we are obsessed.

Just to update the area, with another day tomorrow at least 10 degrees F above normal expect temps to drop throughout the week. Snow returns next weekend. Not until then, the threats for this week are rain at this point in SE New England.

Not sold on anything cold here in SE New England coastline before the 21st

With three inches yesterday morning, we are now up to 6.2" of snow on the season, our first major snowfall usually occurs late January, after the 20th.

yeah oh well

There was an incredible amount of lightning last night

I got 3.0" final

One last observation, the radar is exploding within the CCB, ACK, MVY and CHH all showing a temp drop in the last observation. Snow should be the precipitation type in the next hour.

Oh I definitely misread that

Latest HRRR model shows the CCB heading over the Cape and Islands overnight tonight with lightning a possibility. Our surface to 850mb centers are closed off this storm should slow down some.

Oh I was looking at the METARS 4z update, showed moderate snow