USCAPEWEATHERAF

lol, the instability is there, wind direction is there, fetch is there, we need freaking moisture, the dry air is killing it.

I know Ray. I am excited for snow, we have had another bad month plus of winter.

Strong Ocean Effect Snow bands developing over the Bay and east of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Convection is developing as instability at the surface increases through Delta Ts over 18C. Differential in temperatures between the 850mb level and the surface of the ocean. With a -15C 850mb temp and a sea surface temp around 8C, that combination should produce extreme instability with Delta Ts over 22C. Cold Cloud tops cooling suggests there is no real inversion layer and there is strong humidity levels between the surface and 700mb. Winds align through the column later this morning into the early afternoon. Not sure if accumulations can occur given the dry air at the surface.

Whatever Ray,

Strong banding developing over Cape Cod Bay and east of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Infrared imagery shows developing vertical growth in the clouds as the cloud tops continue to cool. Instability is quite high now over 18C delta Ts present with a NNW wind currently. Bands developing all over the Cape right now, even favoring mid-Cape. However with the arctic air mass in place, comes very dry air too. Relative humidifies are just below 70%, which is not currently ideal.

Ocean Effect snows could give a few inches from HYA eastward to Provincetown from 1 am to noon

3 feet of snow with hurricane force winds, not bad

Steven, Scott, there is something odd happening over SE MA right now. Tim Kelley said its snowing in Weymouth, MA right now. What is happening?

what was the final totals from the blizzard?

Anyone watching the system moving through right now? The upper level vort max is over western MA and CT right now, but a large area of moisture is developing just southwest of Martha's Vineyard and ACK. Anyone think the backend of the precipitation shield can back into Cape Cod and ACK?

We have radars down right now.

1.0" for Harwich, MA from yesterday's January 18th event. Total of 7.45" of snow total this YTD.

Interesting overnight weather tonight for the Cape and ACK. A shortwave over NYC swings through quite robustly with a surface system developing off to the east. A front swings through and there could be some decent precipitation rates for an hour as it passes through. Also models show abundant moisture between the surface and around 800mb through tomorrow evening for CHH. This will likely lead to some cloudy weather and perhaps a few snow showers. HI resolution models show potential for sustained northerly winds tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday, this could lead to a better event, just don't know if the snowfall rates will be there.

WE are getting that fine type of arctic sand snow that sucks at accumulating quickly. No dendrites.

Snow started 18 minutes ago, Harwich, MA temp of 28F

Still dry here, with a temp of 27F

It is colder too with the secondary low.

It takes unbelievable weather conditions to shut a place like that down.

Yeah 3'+ right now

The arctic tries to impact the pattern next week. You can see the factors at play for the beginning of next week on the 00z NAM through hour 57. A large wave breaking ridge tries to setup over Alaska and the western parts of the Arctic Circle. This tries to disrupt the polar vortex over the arctic and pushes the arctic jet southward, right now the models are too far east with the overall trough axis center east of Hudson Bay, Canada. The overall consensus in the models is east with the center of the axis. We could only see a westward retrogression in the pattern if we can get a transient ridge towards Greenland.

Oh I have no expectations, I won't be sad if nothing happens.

I think east helps us out this time, our longitude around 70W instead of 72W

I think our low is tracking south, satellite imagery and observations as of 03z shows us the low is tracking eastward not northeastward.

I am down to 29F

Oh and GMT = -4 EDT so 00z = 8pm EDT