USCAPEWEATHERAF

Threat for some ocean effect snow showers on Tuesday.

Haha

The 00z and 12z GFS runs were about as different as possible with timing and dynamics. The 00z was a full on raining event for most in SNE, while the 12z GFS was a full on blizzard once the temps crashed to the coast with a 952mb low east of ACK, but still missed by 50+ miles from a tremendous event, even though I got over 3-4" of QPF from that track. It was the perfect track for me to receive 4 feet of snow, but cold air initially was lacking as we don't have a classic Quebec High.

Without a solid pattern in tact for the next few weeks, any shortwave can become a superstorm and every shortwave can miss harmlessly out to sea. With the volatile pattern aloft, we will not know a storm is certain until a consensus is present 24 hours out.

Man everyone is so down this season that they are being negative just so they don't ever get excited again to have their hopes drained last second. It sounds like everyone on this forum just went through a serious breakup only not to date again because of the pain they feel. We need to trudge onward. At some point this chaotic pattern will deliver a storm we have never seen before.

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential. The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events. The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today. I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm. Stay tuned!

The 2/1-2/3 weekend looks extremely chaotic in the upper level pattern. The 12z and 18z GFS operational runs show the chaotic underbelly of the pattern ahead at least for the 8-12 day period. The ensembles are showing a favorable pattern setting up in the 11-15 days range. Now the transition period could lead to a superstorm like the 12z GFS showed around hour 252. The GFS is chaotic with several trough/Ridge patterns moving through the flow, short wave ridges and troughs. This is not a permanent pattern.

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential. A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward. Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past. However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years. Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend. With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England. Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating. However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week. Still a ways to go...

You know where I am coming from, we deserve average snowfall.

I'm just making a statement.

Yeah so true. 7.45" is much crappier for a 30" season than say a 90" season with an average of 120"

Maybe, that is why it sucks it is so far out. A Super Bowl bomb.

Dryslot, I said a 947mb bomb on the benchmark, I will probably mix with rain at some point, while you are racking up the snow totals. I will see 3 feet and you will see 5 feet.

I mean when my last two winters combined of 17" I think I deserve something my way.

I am pretty sure you had a lot of snow during Juno, Jan 26-28th, 2015. I got 30-32" you got?

Why??? I haven't had more than 3" in a single storm in the last two winters. You had that last storm.

I want a 945mb bomb at the benchmark so bad. Watch the models be consistent this go around and it will be 250 miles southwest of where we need it to be. We don't want it to occlude before it reaches the benchmark. If we have any say, it will occlude after upon reaching the benchmark.

No you don't

The energy for the day 10 bomb comes onshore the western CONUS coast around 5 days out. We will have five days before we have an idea the nature of the energy and the position it enters the US. We have less time than we realize.

I want that monster 100 miles northeast from the 240 hour position. Bring that monster to the benchmark when it goes to town and not off the Delmarva.

Nah, 947mb

Lol, yes that was me being a moron and an emotional weather enthusiast who wants to see amazing snowstorms, but the norm is against that happening especially for my neighborhood. So I should be more realistic in my ideology

Man I am not convinced this winter will be better than last winter here. It is possible that we end up with less snow. However, 11" is quite easy to beat given I am at 7.45" right now. We just need 4" more. I think March will be a snow filled month with several large blizzards.

It looks like garbage.

Sorry guys, not gonna happen. All rain event.