USCAPEWEATHERAF

A storm that intense at that latitude will not be intense or as intense in CT as it was in DE, and by the time it reaches far enough north in latitude, it will occlude and weaken substantially just like JONAS.

You honestly don't want that location with that intensity. Honestly can't tell you enough that is not what you want. Unless you want to see failure.

The 18z GFS was much closer to a full phase interaction.

I have sacrificed a ton of rain this winter, I am done, but I don't have a choice. I wish I could have control, but it doesn't work like that in life.

Phasing also begins around hour 84 on the 00z models

Snow develops over the mountains of WV, western NC and VA by the 4th of March, the next two days, will help a lot in determining the final solution. Our southern stream should not have more surprises in the modeling after 12z tomorrow, and then it is all dependent upon the northern stream evolution and phasing interaction. I just don't know if I turn out to be all rain and be sacrificed for the I-95 corridor cities and region, I would hate for that.

Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern?

Ain't happening guys, let's just welcome Spring.

There is the monster negative tilt.

Ray, the 00z EURO at hour 120 compared to hour 144 for the 00z last night shows an appreciable more westward pattern, especially for the +PNA ridging out west.

Man was it warm today in the mid 40s, I even went for a walk in shorts.

Potential for Ocean Effect Snow, could be decent accumulations from HYA eastward. Still a Friday event, need to watch next few days.

It is a little later than my 10-12th timeline, but like one day later, there are two systems in this period.

Wasn't NEMO sub 970mb?

That map is inaccurate for my area, Harwich, we got 17.5" of snow.

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week. Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US. We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength. We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow. However, this is our first legit shot at something significant. Stay Tuned!

We need to watch the period between Monday, FEB 10th to WED FEB 12th for an EAST Coast snow threat as a large +PNA/-EPO ridge is in place out west and we have a stalled front along the coast and a -AO vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada with a juicy baroclinic zone and a strong disturbance in the arctic jet stream diving into the Great Lakes. Amplitude of the arctic short wave trough is unknown and how close to the coast will the wave track and how much cold air should be present, my guess is that we will see the best snow threat of the season for the eastern half of SNE, and that isn't saying much, but a threat for at least 6" is legit.

I would say next week has potential to produce snow on the coast of SNE. A large +PNA ridge out west and a diving Arctic shortwave, something should pop.

This winter is so darn awful that the current TTD snowfall right now is less than last winter, which ended with 11", we are at 7.45" in Harwich right now.

Southern New England needs to watch a clipper over the Great Lakes right now will swing southeastward to the South Coast of SNE tomorrow evening. A few inches is still possible.

I am not wishcasting, I am not saying it will happen, I am just saying wait for another few cycles, nothing is set in stone 48 hours away from the onset of the precipitation.

There is a decent chance the southern stream system turns out to be stronger as it swings up the East Coast as the disturbance that shifts it up is still over the Arctic Circle and our southern stream system is over Mexico.

Yeah it gives my area at least 12" of snow. the band of 2-3 feet is literally 20 miles to my southeast.

Why do you post in this storm thread if it is nothing about the storm at all? Post it elsewhere, including the negative crap most people post.

Yeah for your area, not for mine, I give about a 35% chance for at least over 3" of snow in CHH to HYA.