USCAPEWEATHERAF

Hey Scott, do you think the south trending models of the 12z and 18z runs are full of it and Cape Cod gets nothing, or do we cool enough for evaporation cooling and we get an all snow event. Latest models show intense lift of -20 to -24 units of omega in the snow growth zone. That lasts for a good four to six hours.

It appears that March 11/12th in five days is our next real threat at something decent. We got a healthy shortwave that appears to be going through a neutral to negative tilt as it swings through. Models are a little weak with the system, I just find it to be our next threat. I was really wrong about this superstorm, I seemed to only have gotten 1.5" of snow.

Snow Map shows that parts of ACK and CHH could see as much as 6" while the Canal could see 2-4" and the easternmost parts of SE MA could see 1-3" of snow, high wind gusts over 65mph expected east of the Canal and 74mph Plus for ACK.

EURO was step in the right direction with a more amplified northern stream trough, we need better trends only 54 hours out

Did the 12z EURO show any precipitation falling across SE MA?

Dendrite, EURO is better at H5, regardless of what the surface shows right now, that is a good trend in the right direction.

The 12z NAM improved tremendously at H5 compared to previous runs. I would not pay attention to the surface until the pattern at H5 is resolved, that could be until 12 hours away. I was told by someone wise one day that the surface is the hardest area for the models to see, go with the H5 level until that is resolved, the surface will be what it is, it just doesn't make sense to be that far southeast with at least a partial phase ongoing as the northern stream continues to dive to the south and southeast more and more each run. The 18z 3 KM NAM had the clipper and northern stream energy as far northeast as Upstate NY, now it is diving across southwest MI.

Ray, for so long, I wanted us to collaborate on a novel together, I had no idea you were never ready for such a task. I am sorry I bothered you so much over it. This winter only tests us if we give it power over our emotions. We give someone else the power that belongs to us, how are we ever going to make the right decisions in life? The only power we have is over our behavior and our emotions when we decide to fight the demon when it attacks. Head-on, for me the best defense is praying to God, and also going to therapy.

Ray, my struggle with my inner problems has been well documented on this forum, as over the years I have learned the best way to relieve the anger I feel inside and the self-doubt, self-anger and the reason for the issues in the first place was to drink alcohol and get drunk, not to be socializing and having a great time with friends, but to drown my emotional pain of depression in the inhibition free world of being drunk and without shame. Ove the past nine years, since December 2011 I have dealt with depression to the point of where I thought my life was in jeopardy, I almost tried to end it all. In that moment, I would not have had the inner discipline or strength to go on in life any longer. I wanted to take the short cut and no longer deal with the pain I was feeling. I was at the point of no return. I was relying on how other's felt about me to make myself feel great again, it was the wrong of all wrong ways to live a life as 21 year old Airman in the USAF. I had my whole life ahead of me, whatever road blocks life could throw my way, I had it all ahead. The day I wanted it all gone, a strong inner voice struck me and told me to go back to sleep, I had a late shift that day, so I slept late during the early afternoon hours. I went to sleep and I couldn't end it all, because that voice, it wasn't mine. Hell I couldn't have had the inner strength myself to pick me up and stop that thought from destroying my life. That moment and afterwards I realized, that the only way that I could listen to a voice like that, was it was the divine intervention from God Himself. I will never doubt the power of God and the love He shows for us in the clearest of ways. I will always owe my successes in life, if I am as lucky as I believe I am that God looked after me and told me through that voice that there was something about me worth saving. Death is inevitable. I now know the grace of life and how short it can be for all of us, I am almost fully recovered from my emotional turmoil and inner demons. I have renewed sense of faith, hope and love. It is the dear foundation of why I am positive all the time when I discuss storm chances, because I know what negative thoughts can do. Believe me Ray, I don't know what it is like to lose my father, my grandfather was 30 years sober, he died later on from his addictions to alcohol, I am eight years sober, because I couldn't live with myself if I could prevent such a health crisis. I have type one diabetes as well, it is auto-immune and genetic caused it. Today I want nothing to do with the illness causing me to die if I had something to say about it. I have been on a low-carb diet for the last six weeks, my sugars are behaving, I am trying everyday to prove to myself I am worth every sacrifice and my life decisions are over in the past, and only to look at the present and make the best ones from here on out.

Wow, Ray. I pray for you my man. May you live life to the fullest, knowing what you have been through and knowing what lies ahead, we can only pray for the power of God, or whoever that inspires you in life, to be the best version of yourself throughout the rest of life. You are a strong man, Ray, don't forget that you have that power inside to make a difference.

The southern stream is more progressive while the northern stream is taking its slow time phasing in, this system is garbage for our region, we will miss it by about 103 miles to far east.

Our storm begins to phase on the 18z NAM at around hour 66, which would be hour 60 on the 00z runs. That is our first window.

Well everyone, this one isn't ours once again, models have gone too far east even for major impacts for the Cape and Islands. Good luck next winter, we will need it.

Lol, we posted at the same time.

Any updates on the latest 18z EURO and its ensemble mean?

Honestly we ran out of time in late January, when nothing but rain occurred. I would like a 75 mile shift west and we get 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions.

The majority are leaning west of the mean

Lol it is four millibars stronger as well, and it looks minimal at best.

Through 65 hours the jet streak over New England is weaker and further north than the 12z run.

ICON Is much better than the morning runs.

36?

Man I knew it was too good to be true, she gone!

12z GFS is better than the 00z and 6z for the Cape and Islands, more snow, and a much stronger storm, just need it 150 miles west, that can correct in 4 days.

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring. However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm. What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest. We have time to figure out a few issues. Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.

Man that +PNA Rockies Ridge is a beast, that is why this has a shot. Again not optimistic or ready to go half in, but it has potential.