USCAPEWEATHERAF

One thing is for certain during an active La Nina winter season, the ENSO while in the mid cold phase between -1 and -2C below normal, the northern branch of the jet stream will be very active from now until the La Nina relaxes towards the beginning of Spring 2021. This winter should provide a rather volatile change in the three day periods. We will go through changes of warm and cold air masses and active storm tracks either north or south of the region. Cape Cod has always been the benchmark for rain versus snow. For events coming out of the northwest, like Ontario, Canada, we would prefer the low track south of Block Island, RI, while if the storm track is from the southwest, we prefer the track to the south of Nantucket. If the clipper season is active, we should see a few 8-12 inch events from ESSEX to NANTUCKET. The next seven days provide a nice interior event and two potential last minute developers off Cape Cod. Let's see how this Friday system works out.

yeah

Does anyone know the new name of the new accuweather forums?

The second low develops and tries to phase with what is left of the remnants of Zeta. The trough tries to phase in time with the remnants, the differences in the NAM and GFS are exactly tied to the progressive nature of the northern stream branch

I agree Scott.

Scott, otherwise known as a +EPO

Sounds like a great idea for a three to four hour window where we watch the models role in with a huge storm on the horizon. (within three days), or we can have a weekend zoom meeting for three hours discussing the patterns evolving.

Where is everyone?

Same Anthony

What's up? Anyone interested in joining the call?

Simply put, I am really excited for this winter season. I can see at least two to three legitimate chances for a severe blizzard occurring off the coast of Cape Cod in late December to February. March might be a warm month.

I am excited for the puzzles that will come along this upcoming winter. Getting excited with each passing clipper/shortwave that will be the next possible miller B snowstorm. That is the most exciting aspect of the forecast game.

haha, the sub-tropics

Generally speaking, and geographically speaking, if Boston and Plymouth are the coastal plain, what is Cape Cod and the Islands?

thanks Tip

I am in!

What is the latitude and longitude of the NAO/AO/PNA domains?

Hey Paul, I am in no way saying it will happen. I was just pointing out what I saw in the model as of 00z.

The end of the 00z GFS is shaping up to look very ominous. Teleconnections favor a more amplified pattern as we head into the last two weeks of October. After Friday, the NAO tanks negative and the PNA heads positive. the AO is looking negative as well. That is apparent with the large Arctic vortex over Central Canada. You add an amplified pattern, a major hurricane, and some type of cold troughing heading in the same direction, something big will happen. Not saying we are there yet. Just saying, it is in the back of my mind. Until then, weather looks rather benign.

Graphic shows the temperatures right now http://C:\Users\james\OneDrive\Pictures\10-13-2020 North American H5 pattern paint.gif This link brings you to the mid level pattern at H5 shows you why the temperatures are where they are at your location!

The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS. It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic. The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses. As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will result in a progressive northern branch of the jet stream with frequent cold fronts moving in from Canada and the Great Lakes. With each progression, and determining what the teleconnections favor, frequent clippers will be the main storm type for a majority of the 2020-2021 winter. Whether these systems blow up along the East Coast and Gulf Stream will be determined as I mentioned above, the teleconnections and most appreciably the North American Pacific Pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is determined by the presence and pressure pattern of the Icelandic Low Pressure and Greenland Ridge pressure pattern. Also, the pattern evolving is favoring a transitional period in the pattern across the North and west hemispheres. Snow is showing up on the models across the Great Lakes in the next 7 days, stay tuned!

I am concerned that this winter SNE will see many chances at snow, but they are wasted by a progressive natured jet stream without any -NAO blocking present. Also, there will be strong periods of above normal temps. Let's pray that the Greenland block amps upwards this winter and knocks down the SE ridge.

Big storm developing over interior SE MA right now, western Plymouth, eastern Bristol counties! Likely triggered by developing sea breeze boundary

No not in terms of ACE, but in terms of named systems. The surface low is developing just west of Cape Hatteras, NC on radar. Banding is present.

okay good