USCAPEWEATHERAF

Does anyone know the new name of the new accuweather forums?

Sounds like a great idea for a three to four hour window where we watch the models role in with a huge storm on the horizon. (within three days), or we can have a weekend zoom meeting for three hours discussing the patterns evolving.

Where is everyone?

Same Anthony

What's up? Anyone interested in joining the call?

Simply put, I am really excited for this winter season. I can see at least two to three legitimate chances for a severe blizzard occurring off the coast of Cape Cod in late December to February. March might be a warm month.

I am in!

Hey Paul, I am in no way saying it will happen. I was just pointing out what I saw in the model as of 00z.

The end of the 00z GFS is shaping up to look very ominous. Teleconnections favor a more amplified pattern as we head into the last two weeks of October. After Friday, the NAO tanks negative and the PNA heads positive. the AO is looking negative as well. That is apparent with the large Arctic vortex over Central Canada. You add an amplified pattern, a major hurricane, and some type of cold troughing heading in the same direction, something big will happen. Not saying we are there yet. Just saying, it is in the back of my mind. Until then, weather looks rather benign.

Graphic shows the temperatures right now http://C:\Users\james\OneDrive\Pictures\10-13-2020 North American H5 pattern paint.gif This link brings you to the mid level pattern at H5 shows you why the temperatures are where they are at your location!

The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS. It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic. The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses. As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will result in a progressive northern branch of the jet stream with frequent cold fronts moving in from Canada and the Great Lakes. With each progression, and determining what the teleconnections favor, frequent clippers will be the main storm type for a majority of the 2020-2021 winter. Whether these systems blow up along the East Coast and Gulf Stream will be determined as I mentioned above, the teleconnections and most appreciably the North American Pacific Pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is determined by the presence and pressure pattern of the Icelandic Low Pressure and Greenland Ridge pressure pattern. Also, the pattern evolving is favoring a transitional period in the pattern across the North and west hemispheres. Snow is showing up on the models across the Great Lakes in the next 7 days, stay tuned!

No not in terms of ACE, but in terms of named systems. The surface low is developing just west of Cape Hatteras, NC on radar. Banding is present.

lol, I love tracking systems, but this seems out to sea due to the troughing over the Eastern USA

Something is festering over the Bahamas, and I do not like it. That water is bath water. Shear is decreasing over the system. Convection has been sustained since DMAX. There is a circulation at least from 500mb to 850mb and developing further at 925 to 850mb.

The last few days has brought some major swings in the overall five to ten day forecasts. A few days ago the ten day was quite wet and crappy, but with the latest data influencing the latest changes, an Omega Blocking pattern has brought a period of amazing weather conditions for the foreseeable future in Southern New England. Noticed greatly by a trough ridge trough pattern on an upper level map, an Omega block slows weather systems down and stalls them to the west, keeping any weather at home dry and clear. Let's enjoy the next ten days with sunshine and warmth as Summer is a month away.

New draft underway, 65,000 words for the new draft is the goal.

My novel draft nine is completed. 100,069 words. over 215 pages ten font. Ready for revising and editing period, begins Tuesday at 9:00 a.m.

Snow Map shows that parts of ACK and CHH could see as much as 6" while the Canal could see 2-4" and the easternmost parts of SE MA could see 1-3" of snow, high wind gusts over 65mph expected east of the Canal and 74mph Plus for ACK.

Well everyone, this one isn't ours once again, models have gone too far east even for major impacts for the Cape and Islands. Good luck next winter, we will need it.

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring. However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm. What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest. We have time to figure out a few issues. Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week. Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US. We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength. We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow. However, this is our first legit shot at something significant. Stay Tuned!

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night. The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W. This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W. Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands. Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours. However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon. Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests. We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation. For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude. -AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential. The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events. The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today. I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm. Stay tuned!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential. A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward. Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past. However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years. Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend. With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England. Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating. However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week. Still a ways to go...