USCAPEWEATHERAF

I think the slight risk should be expanded where the marginal risk is right now, for the 5 percent tornado risk. It is becoming clear that there is a strong threat for slight risk worthy graphics over the southern half of southern New England!

I think there may be more of a tornado then damaging gust threat given the marine influence!

seems like the 11z HRRR model run shows the height of severe weather impacts on Cape Cod will be around midnight!

Heavy rains will move into Southern New England from south to north in the next few hours and especially overspread RI and Eastern MA just before 11 am EST (16z) this morning. Winds will begin to increase from the south and southeast right after midday and then escalate further throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening. A large and massive in size extra-tropical cyclone with a center of 999mb currently over VA will move northward and begin to occlude later today after deepening another ten millibars to around 989mb near BUF. Models are converging on an intense low level jet overspreading the RI and SE MA area this afternoon with a peak in winds after 9pm EST especially the further east one is located. These winds could max out over hurricane force, and maybe some gusts over 90-mph. Again, with southeast winds off the marine influence of the Atlantic Ocean, there is some data that suggests an inversion will keep the winds off the surface and at 1000 feet above ground level. If convection develops, echo tops should be generally between 25-30 thousand feet, enough to transfer the extreme winds to the surface in any drag processes such as microbursts enhanced by heavy down pours. An intense situation is developing east of Myrtle Beach, SC with a line of intense thunderstorms developing and moving northward towards Hatteras, NC. These could produce waterspouts, damaging wind gusts and potentially tornadoes. This area will move up the East Coast throughout the day in line with the best helicity over 600 m/s towards eastern MA and RI this evening. This will provide the atmosphere with turning of the winds with height, ie shear, and enough to produce mesocyclones. I believe the SPC will upgrade our region to a slight risk. Tornadoes should be positioned at 5 percent risk. Model soundings from CHH suggest a veering wind profile or turning of wind with height in a cyclonic circulation. Winds at the surface from the SE to west in the upper levels over 90 degrees of turning, suggests tornado profile! Stay alert!

There is a chance for a few tornadoes tonight across eastern MA and RI. The main threat remains a heavy wind to damaging wind threat today and overnight. We have a chance to see a few hurricane force wind gusts +75 mph!

Would not be surprised to see a few tornado warnings across SNE tonight!

Models are beginning to show an area of focused vorticity rounding the base of neutral to negatively tilted northern branch of the jet stream trough. Now, energy is over the central North Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands which means the energy is not being sampled properly at this time. However, multi model consensus is beginning to show prudent signs that this trough will be energizing as it moves through which far more productive than a trough that is weakening instead. We have the right trends going as the system ignites over the extremely warm waters relative to average norms for November 30th. While the warm waters are a concern at times, this system will not be driving southeast winds, so the area should remain in a cold environment, enough for snow, I have no idea. Right now, the threat has begun to emerge for Friday December 5th!

okay, inversion probably rears its ugly head with a pure southerly flow

Hey Scott, you think there is a severe component to the weather on Monday night and Tuesday with the cold frontal passage?

Sounds great, Saturday November 21st

Ray, judging by the models Day 10 outlook right now, that Pacific pattern is just ideal for coastal snow accumulation. Again, dependent upon storm track and intensity cold air funneling out of Maine could bring a coastal snow threat. That 1006mb surface low wave will not plow northward into a 1042 mb high in its way. Multi guidance agreement that the ridging out west will indeed be robust as teleconnections swings to neutral slightly negative in the NAO domain and slightly positive PNA domain. Again Day 10 guidance is always ripe for our area. Waiting a legit eight days is torture. However, there is a day 4-6 event window upon us for some mood flakes.

Weather folks love to use the Rocky Mountains and the Continental divide as the spacer between the western CONUS and eastern CONUS. The NOAM pattern looks to be in full reversal from this past work week to the next few weeks. The cold situates itself at peak performance in ten to twelve days. The EURO, EURO ENS, GFS, CMC all show a strong signal towards a large +PNA/-EPO spiking ridge over the rocky mountains and the Canadian Northwest Territories. This incredible ridge spike will create cross polar flow across the Arctic and North American Continent. This flow comes straight southward from the Arctic Circle itself which will poor a strong connection of Sub Zero Celsius air all the way towards the Deep South. This strong Air masses will allow the cold to settle in place across the northern half of the CONUS allowing Canadian Arctic High Pressure centers to move across Southern Canada and Northern USA allowing the NE CONUS to be subjected to multiple nor'easter threats. Our first substantial potential powerful winter storm is Thanksgiving Week, Monday the 23rd, that is the signal at least this afternoon cycle 11/13 12z. Again, there is no confidence in a ten day forecast, but today the pattern is showing itself to be a potential. However, before that setup, a large deep arctic air mass will move overhead this upcoming work week from Monday to Thursday before a brief warmup before the real arctic pattern settles in after the 20th...

EURO operational and ensemble mean shows a change in the 7 plus day pattern from a zonal -PNA to an amplified northern stream branch and a +PNA ish like regime. This offers a clipper midweek next week. Just something to watch for the next few days.

I just want SNE folks to realize and soak up the warmth the next few days, until a second GRT Lakes storm moves through day 3-5 and then brings a powerful cold front through the region. This should usher in very cold, arctic like air mass into the region and the upper level pattern looks to lock into a +PNA at least through the first few days of Thanksgiving Week! Stay tuned, a coastal redeveloping clipper could move through the region as well around the 17th/18th. Stay alert!

As Celtics Nation and the sports world knows, the one player that everyone associates with the Celtics organization for over sixty years has been the one and only Tommy Heinsohn, one of four players ever to be in the hall of fame in Springfield, MA as a player and a coach and as a broadcaster. Tommy earned eight NBA championships with the Celtics in his nine year NBA career and two more as a Celtics head coach in the 1970s and had spend the final 39 years of his wonderful life as a NBA broadcaster for the 17 time NBA Championship Franchise Boston Celtics. Mike Gorman his play by play man side by side for the last 39 years, brought up a tremendous idea that the Celtics players should have his Celtics jersey number 15 retired to be pinned on the players' jerseys during the games this season, then Brian Scalabrine went a step further and said the NBA as whole might want to show continuity as a whole behind the legend of the NBA with his impact beyond the Celtics. Tommy will forever be missed, but we know God has welcomed him to eternal life! November 10th, 2020 a day we will never forget a year which we hope will leave in the rear view mirror for reasons behind simplistic beliefs.

+PNA is the king of cold and snow, while NAO is the king of the KUs

I am not liking the 15-25" snowfall amounts forecasted for Hyannis

I personally do not see actual GTGs happening this year in this State.

We should pick a day of every other weekend or every weekend for a four hour window for a virtual GTG and then within a three day window of a potential 10"+ regionwide snow event for SNE? We should make the rules and lay the ground work to make this a reality!

Perhaps why they found 155-knot surface winds and the upper level winds were much weaker

That is not a question you can answer!

How is this a third world country issue? Please explain?

VDM says it strengthened to 135 knots, 2-knots to category five

Mitch did not hit this same area on this same path as Eta. Mitch went north of Honduras and then turned south and made landfall in central north coast of Honduras and then meandered around.

I thought IRMA was very picturesque