USCAPEWEATHERAF

Amazon Author Central - James Nichols

Amazon Author Page My latest information on my novel!

The Awakening Dawn has been self-published on Amazon.com eBook. Paperback will take a few days, but the official release date is January 1st, 2021.

Hello everyone from Americanwx Forums Tonight, I am announcing my official release date for my first novel, "The Awakening Dawn" (TAD)! The release date will be January 1st, 2021 (New Year's Day around noon EST) Hope you enjoy the novel on its release date, official cost ($0.99) Written by, and story created by James Warren Nichols (Air Force veteran - A1C E-3) discharged in 2012.

Wow, now not much in the way of significant accumulations, but the snow showers will have a good intensity if they can become persistent in areas and the duration will be long enough to allow for an inch of accumulation. Map is posted!

WinterWolf the trend is our friend!

The Clipper for Wednesday looks interesting with the latest two model cycles of runs. The 18z and 12z runs are showing a more consolidated H5 disturbance, currently over northern Alberta Province, Canada. It dives southeastward through Lake Ontario and latest trends show the disturbance moving south of NYC and Long Island, and eventually Cape and the Islands. For a decent event, the region needs development to happen right away and quickly south of Long island and not southeast of ACK!

Potential exists for Ocean Effect Snow bands to develop as an upper level low develops to the southwest of the region. Now the evolution of said trough and upper level low remain in question as overall the guidance for 12z 12/06/2020 is still questioning this transition. Newly updated water vapor imagery as I watch, shows the main energy that develops into the upper level closed low is still diving southward with no eastward motion. This suggests it will try and phase with the southern stream system and create a formidable surface storm over the North and South Carolina piedmont region. This low has two avenues of track, one to the ENE and off the coast with little fanfare, or two up the East Coast in more of a NNE track. The latter performs a major impact event for eastern New England, while the former represents little impacts. Ocean Effect Snows will only develop if the ocean storm tracks close enough to the region to veer the flow from an anticyclonic burst of westerly winds, to a more cyclonic burst of NNE to N winds across a very mild Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod Bay. 850mb temps which are found 2500 to 5000 feet above the surface of the ocean, dive into the -6 to -12C range for a good 36 hour period. The winds veer to north-northeasterly at the same time and provide the necessary forcing for ocean effect cloud seeding and developing of snow showers. Again any accumulations will be light!

This coastal/ocean storm for Monday night/Tuesday looks to back the flow at the surface from westerly to northeasterly to northerly for a good 24 hour period and with 850mb temps diving to -8 t0 -10C and ocean temps north of the Cape are near 50 (10-12C), instability should be present and great enough for heavy bands of snow to move through the overnight hours and morning hours across the mid and outer Cape. Again, lift develops and a good to great delta Ts develop and we have a good period of accumulating snow potential. Again, never sold on an even like OES given how mesoscale in nature they are, but the potential does exist for a good band or two of OES east of HYA!

I am not sold on the current projections for Tuesday in the latest 12/05/2020 18z cycle of model runs. I honestly think we have a shot at something. Maybe it becomes all Cape Cod associated Ocean Effect Processes, but right now, the storm is still a hundred miles too far southeast on the 18z EURO

Storm is stronger and more east! Latest surface observations indicate pressure is down to 992mb

The 8th system seems to be a more legit threat then current model runs have shown. I am under the suspicion that the 8th system comes back to the benchmark and ends up delivering our first accumulating snows along the coastal plain.

Honestly, I think the storm next week around the 8th looks more promising for the coast!

I will take the cold hard rain in wind over 60mph from the east or northeast! If the winds are northeasterly the NWS used to say during nor'easters that the northeast wind was unstable and therefore able to mix the hurricane force winds to the surface, like JUNO, NEMO and others!

00z Sounding from CHH shows a cyclonic/veering of the winds from the surface to the upper atmosphere. Curved hodographs! There is rotation in the air!

Is it just me or is there rotation in the storms to the south of the Islands of MVY and ACK?

Hey Wiz, anyway to get the actual observations for the winds off the deck at 925mb and 850mb? Or is it only 12 hour data through the release of the weather balloon?

Gusting up to 29mph now in CHH

It is very warm today, and the clouds are awesome looking. Strong jet increasing over the region!

Moisture transport is strong with PWATS nearing 1.5" entering the South Coast as of 18z. Strong pressure falls underway! Nearing -6mb/3 hours!

I could see a few gusts near 80mph, like ACK and Falmouth. Explosive storm development underway across the western locations within the new tornado watch across the central Mid Atlantic States. Winds gusting to 28mph at CHH.

I think the weekend threats may end up more south than they are currently progged. the NAO is tanking Negative by the 5th and so is the AO, if they coincide, we are getting blanketed by cirrus and snow clouds, while DC and NYC are enjoying their early DEC snows!

Winds or Tornado threat?