USCAPEWEATHERAF

Will I must be missing something, I see a more amplified trough, the H5 low closes off!

I am leaning towards an average of 10-12" on the Cape, places like Provincetown, Sandwich and Bourne could see 18". I am liking the trend of the SREFs to a more reasonable amounts. I think the deformation band will be wide ranging from the NE PA to NYC to CT to RI and CC and Islands

I am seeing a more amplified H5 trough, it closes off over ILL

He does the Cape weather!

I would like to see that trailing shortwave to either slow down or speed up, either way, shows us your next move! That way the trough will focus more on the lead shortwave, either the trailer phases in with the lead, or it leaves it alone!

CT>RI>SE MA>CC and Islands - 12-18" isolated 18" + in intense banding

Just for you - !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is the best map used for deciding where the model feels the dry slots will be located!

ubars - or Microbars

And lift is measured in microbars, the lower the number, the greater the lift. -10 to -15 microbars are decent lift, while -30 to -34 microbars is extreme lift!

Again the zone of best dendrite growth is wherever the -12 to -18C temps are layered. When lift dissects this zone, that is when ratios are best and snowflakes are dendrites.

500mb is too high for the DGZ especially one in a winter storm that can produce a foot plus! The levels are likely a lot lower between 820mb and 675mb

Tip remember the Blizzard of Jan 15 and the Boxing Day 2010? Both storms a trailing shortwave was forecasted to interfere with the lead shortwave in the overall long wave trough. The JAN 15 storm was forecasted by models seven days in advance, they lost it within the 4-6 day window and brought it back within 72 hours as the EURO caught onto first. The question was the interaction between the lead and trailing shortwaves. The 12z GFS today has improved the western Rockies ridging heights, but the shortwave is already entering the backside of the long wave trough. Again, I am not sold in either direction. There are three clear signs that make sense...1.) strong presence of arctic air in place and locked in by a strong -NAO block in Greenland and Iceland, and 50/50 low, 2.) there is a storm present and a lot of moisture involved, 3.) someone will see over 15" of snow, questions become placement of the track of the low and eventual H5 dynamics as the system passes 75w. Again, there will be a strong gradient in the precipitation shield. Someone will see deformation bands, someone will have a long duration event, and OES will prolong the event!

Every model doing what exactly?

Perhaps leaning towards a more amped, westward leaning pattern!

The storms like DEC 2010 where the band brought a foot of snow to the eastern half of Cape Cod the Monday before the Boxing Day. There are plenty of examples of shortwaves being dampened too quickly, can I name every situation, no I can't. However, that does not mean I am spewing crap off the top of my head. Every situation is different, but today's storm could be a signal that the pattern is more favored to amplification than models would indicate. yesterday the storm for today was forecasted to bring a band quickly through the Cape and then offshore, however, judging by radar, that band is aimed right at the Cape and Islands and is not moving until the backside slides through, currently over western CT. Lean towards amplification.

Look off the top of my head, various nor'easters like Jan 15, Jan 05, DEC 04, FEB 13, JAN 16, were all forecasted at some point within this time range to dampen out, or be suppressed to the south of the region for various reasons. Not one unique reason was the cause for every event. However, there were causes for concern. When the EURO over amped the Jan 15 storm 48 hours out, everyone jumped on its bandwagon and I kept saying Cape Cod will not rain because the pattern screams east. I am saying from the experiences I have seen over the last ten years alone, the ones that do the most swinging back and forth seem to produce the most snows. Jan Bomb Cyclone of 2018 the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2017, these are more types were the swinging was clear. The big one's always swing, except the only real case against, was the Super Storm of 1993.

Look, the models want to close off at H85 and H7 and the H5 level almost closes off on the GFS. Other models close off at H5!

Why do I have to answer your question? Would you answer mine and tell me why you give up on a storm so quickly?

You guys might wilt when a model doesn't show what you want in your backyard, but I don't sway every run that changes its ideas. I have seen instances where this happens numerous times in the past only for the last second nailing. This storm should produce a foot plus south of the Pike, southwest of BOS. Plymouth should see 16"+

I am not buying the dampening shortwave as it moves northeast underneath Long Island. That just does not sit well with me and we could see in the last 48 hours that the trend is for a stronger shortwave as it passes 40N and 75W.

Huge band of precipitation falling southwest of the Cape and over the Vineyard! Almost an inch of precipitation has fallen!

Temp near 36F, dew near 33F. Calm winds, no rain, red sky in the east this morning - sailor take warning!

Considering our storm today was more amplified than the models showed 24 hours out, I would lean towards the UKMET, EURO, CMC and ensembles then the GFS and NAM!

The one thing that the models are beginning to come to a consensus on right now is that a longer duration system with an OES component prolonging the ending of the snow on the Cape with strong NE to NNE winds. The limiting factor to a good event is the 850mb temps which warm later on. However, this storm looks like a powerhouse even if the surface low does not behave accordingly. I will take the UKMET 00z run this morning, even though its resolution is too coarse for the coastline.