USCAPEWEATHERAF

Man I wish I knew I was guaranteed snow. I think the OES component and the commahead of the storm could prolong the snow through noon on Friday here on the Cape. Models continuously showed this potential. HRRR snows through the 18 hours on the 22z run with a large portion of the storm still overhead.

Maybe I will do anything i can to stay awake!

Man we need ACKWAVES back here. I need an actual human observation from ACK. While the ASOS station says humidity near 60 percent, the radar says it should be snowing all the way to the surface!

There is no surface low near DC

It is snowing above the surface right now. Above our heads snow is falling out of the clouds just to evaporate in the final 500 feet.

I don't buy turning to rain even here in Harwich, MA, I mean sleet for a bit, sure, but not rain. The entire column cools rapidly after warming slightly above 700mb.

Parts of NE PA, SE NY and NW CT and MA could see a band produce up to and over 36" of snow!

Anyone know what Montauk's Station ID is?

Yes early onset OES

I don't think Ray will be right about the Cape, perhaps the Islands, not the Cape.

Not with a northerly component to the wind

Clouds thickening up, the sky cover is down to 2900 feet, down from 12000 feet earlier this past hour. Temp has dropped to 30F/Td of 18F

It does not happen all the time, but I understand your statement. Our coastal is now taking over at 1010mb just south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Never sold on complete snow, but there is a stronger chance now!

If the DC/BWI region stays colder for a longer duration, then the forecasts can lean colder up here! Cape Cod.

Latest GFS is much colder for KCHH (KCQX) - over a foot of snow, latest 12z run!

This is a true arctic airmass overhead right now. Dew point is at 15F this morning. Ocean induced clouds are forming in the northerly surface winds. Again, winds are light to calm at times, but still out of the north. I find it really hard for the winds to turn easterly and scour out this deep dry and cold arctic air. Winds would have to turn out of the east-southeast or southeast or south for their to be appreciable warming.

Ocean Effect Snow Showers have begun to develop over Cape Cod Bay moving southwestward towards Plymouth County shoreline!

HAHAHA

Models latest snow output maps show that the H5 shortwave actually stays in tact and does not get shredded like they had two days ago!

Models beginning to show less mixing for the Cape and is now just for the Cape if any!

GFS shows us how Cape Cod remains all snow, 10:1 ratios with 1.50" of QPF equals 15" for CHH, latest 00z GFS run. I seriously think the deformation band and dry slot will come further southeast as we get closer to the onset. OES contribution and dry slot issues in hand, Cape Cod could start around 5pm EST later this evening, and end around midnight Friday morning! There is a real chance the comma head could bring some wild conditions. If the region does not dry slot, and honestly with a surface track across the BM and even between the BM and ACK I would not expect a changeover, but the H7 and H85 low tracks are a bit concerning moving overhead. There could be a period of sleet.

GFS was right on the benchmark

GFS is less mixing than the 18z run and every run today!

Also I think Blizzard conditions will be rampant from the coastal front westward by about 50 to 75 miles inland!