USCAPEWEATHERAF

Scott, I have seen the models overestimate this warmth in the past. Again, the winds stay more NE instead of E and especially SE then we stand a much greater chance of a more substantial bust in the positive direction. Now, the biggest question in regards to the track and intensity is where does the big band setup and does it reach the Canal and points west?

I was wrong about the surface low intensity on the 3km NAM. It seems it was still around 990mb. Unless the TropicalTidbits and NCEP sites are off.

Not if the 12z EURO is right and the 12z UKMET

I agree Jerry, a lot of people get caught up in the modeled surface temps during storms where the H925 temps are cooler than -3C. This storm is dynamic, will it cool the atmosphere as long as the track stays southeast of ACK. I am still a bit concerned with the track of the H5 low.

Cape Cod seems to be the best place for a lot more snow. Why? We are the closest to the strongest banding, and dynamics as a H7 low closes off to the south of ACK and then Southeast. The H85 to H925 both dynamically cool rapidly as the surface low bombs out to the southeast of ACK.

It is not about the system that just impacted us, it is about the upper level shortwave moving into the PAC NW states in the next 24 to 36 hours that impacts the potential stall and long duration nature of this system. Which is why the 00z suite and 12z suite for tomorrow is most important. HIRES models show a stronger surface low than the globals. the newest 3km NAM brings it below 980mb.

Wait until that energy that comes ashore in 30 hours is sampled enough they understand the intensity of it until we give up and throw up our hands.

I really do not buy that a band as strong as the guidance shows just offshore of the National Sea Shore of the Outer Cape does not bring dynamics with it to produce heavy snowfall for the Cape and Islands. There is enough cold air at 850mb that if the H5 low does track over ACK or just southeast, we will be in the heavy snows. With the surface low southeast of the BM that deepens below 990mb suggests we get snow with the dynamic flip. Sorry, a strengthening upper level low and a surface low down below 989mb to the southeast of ACK brings snow, not rain. even the NAM came in colder.

Remember I said give it until Sunday 00z or 06z before putting doubt on it. Wait until tonight at the 00z runs.

I see when you put in those terms!

Yeah I meant, the Cape and Islands got screwed with the 1978 Blizzard, we got six inches and the sun came out and turned to rain and 50 F. I mean the winds were ferocious, but I would like at least one time, my area gets the Jackpot of 40"

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call him out Scott! Bologna

I am sorry, but the SE MA and RI areas that missed out on the 78 Blizzard amounts need this one to materialize. It would never be on the 78 Blizzard's level intensity wise, but the models show us every new run that there is a Quebec High present that keeps the northerly component to the surface winds west of the surface low. That should keep the dynamics in play and allow the coastal plain to be heavy snows.

I think last night we saw the trend towards a capture, now we have concrete support the capture will happen, the timing of that capture is the ultimate question and difference between a few feet of snow and a few inches of rain. Cape Cod will end up likely seeing a hefty amount of precip given the capture and when the surface low intensifies, especially if the track is from the benchmark NNE or NEward. We still have another 30 hours until that shortwave that ends up catching our system enters the west coast.

Again, there is an initial NW shortwave that interacts with the upper level low and tries to yank it back to the west, but it snaps back and out east, becoming progressive, we shall see how this all interacts over the next two days, I just find it fascinating.

Are in question that remains extremely volatile for the next two days!

Again, it is paramount, that we do not stick with one solution as the timing of the pacific NW shortwave injection and phase as well as the evident developing -NAO Greenland/Davis Strait super E-W oriented block tries to slam the door on the potential escape timing of the coastal storm.

It is evident in the timing of the second pacific northern branch shortwave at H5, 48 hours still from coming onshore the Pacific NW coast. We have two days still until the models get a clear indication of the phase potential and how it interacts with the main shortwave ie the southern stream trough and upper low. It is that phase potential that turns this into a stalled storm scenario. Honestly, it looks like rain to start at the moment on the Cape and Islands, and snow all interior. I would venture towards an inside the BM track will be the final result, with the goal posts the 39.8 N: 68.9 W to the Canal at this time, this is subjected to change dramatically, but remain even keeled. This is a big storm potential as the stall scenario can prolong the event to the point where we get a GFS scenario and CHH sees 5" of QPF in a 48 - 60 hour period, between the 00z of the 4th to 12z of the 6th.

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Good luck with verification at this point!

Hey wasn't one of the worst snowstorms of March 1960 just like the 00z GFS in terms of snow, except northeast more.

Not all the time, but more often then not

Although admittedly, I am on the edge of the 0" line and the 30" amounts.

GFS literally shows everywhere I get the F-word. I mean seriously, I get a foot of snow, washed away by another four inches of rain. For a total of 5" of QPF, I get one inch of snow equivalent. The GFS can off and............