USCAPEWEATHERAF

The 9th-11th timeframe looks to mainly hinge on the interaction between what looks like an polar vortex/arctic jet vorticity lobe that closes off over Ontario, Canada and tries to phase with the southern stream system moving out of the central Plains into the MS Valley and eventually off the NC coastline. There is no run to run continuity and there is no consensus on the eventual track of this system and potential phasing mechanisms. The potential is there for any scenario. If the Ontario PV lobe does end up moving this far south, around 41N or 40N in latitude, then the cold air will be in the picture, the ominous nature of where its origins are and the movement make this setup ominous and anomalous. Therefore, the region this lobe is coming from, my guess until better sampling happens, we will not have any idea on the potential phasing end job that occurs. In fact, the 00z ICON is so far off, there is no system in this time frame I mentioned!

My biggest bust was the March 12-14, 2018 Snowstorm, where I thought legitimately I would get at least 2 feet, but got like 6-8" of snow.

Yes heavier rains, Cape Cod is not the best place on average for snow, yeah, the odds are against you getting snow James, deal with it James, blah blah. Im fine, yes I get excited, but I am not going to cry over another freaking weak sauce winter season of another 10" or less of snowfall.

A large band of heavy precipitation is moving NE towards the islands of Massachusetts right now, Cape Cod is likely to get this band in the next half hour to hour.

Thanks, I just do not buy nothing happens when the H5 low center over PA moves south of Long Island and SE MA and RI get nothing substantial to see from it.

I am always skeptical when the H5 low moves underneath the South Shore of Long Island, NY. Especially when the h5 and h7 lows are closing off and intensifying as it heads south of the Islands over the next 24 hours. I am just skeptical when a low at that level does exactly that and does not produce a flake for the Cape and Islands. It just screams higher potential.

For areas east of the I95 corridor. our best chance comes after 00z Tuesday as the storm intensifies rapidly to the east and produces ocean enhanced banding from Portland to Cape Cod.

The low is only down to 1006 mb, this is not going to be a six to twelve hour storm. It will be a process until near the benchmark before it rapidly intensifies.

Something weird is happening. Goodnight everyone!

I will take 4"

Even with ACK at 13"

For CHH and HYA?

The clever quivers will cease the day you run out of sarcasm

Also the 00z GFS trended southward with the CCB precipitation maximum. I think a quicker intensification can save a lot of the area with heavier snows.

GFS is cold throughout the column, I do not know about surface temps, which it tends to bias towards too warm. However, the mega CCB band is literally miles offshore from CHH and PVC.

00z GFS looks a bit better than the other guidance when the capture and stall begins, a little bit further south and west. Also the surface low seems a tad stronger.

It wasn't the 3km NAM I thought I was looking at, it was the 00z WRF ARW2

Actually I would say the 00z 3 KM NAM is not a miss or a bad run like the 12 KM NAM. In fact, the 3km 00z run came in stronger with the system and a juicier overall QPF shield. Also, the timing is really fragile with the capture and the timing. That has huge implications to what occurs. Looking at the information at hand, I would wait for the 12z runs on Sunday before putting a kibosh on this system in general.

Scott, the low level thermals are not completely accurate, what are the 925mb temps like?

00z runs will show the system's true intentions! I am a bit worried of the developments down near eastern TN and western NC where the surface low is stronger with pressure near 1012mb, and the only pressure falls are occurring in that area. I think we will have a more northwest tracking surface low that will deepen a tad faster moving over the benchmark.

Yeah, Plymouth will be the coastal jackpot location.

I agree Ray, Cape Cod needs more luck, but honestly Plymouth and the north shore do not need that much luck. Plus the models have gone with a upper level closing off southeast of CHH, I do not care if ACK turns to rain, which looks likely no matter the situation. However, current observations suggest that the surface low is stronger over the NC western mountains and the pressure falls are the best there. This is coming more west than the 18z suite.

Because every solution is still on the table.

I am not imagining anything. This has potential, as the 925mb temps dramatically cool as the low deepens below 992mb.

This is not early December, this is early January, prospects are higher, again, not expecting too much at all here, but the possibility is greater the closer to the I95 corridor.