USCAPEWEATHERAF

A band of precipitation likely from surface boundary moving around the Maritimes low pressure will reach the coast around 2 am and last for an hour in most spots. Nothing significant!

Once the pattern changes to the longwave, we have the potential for a major Eastern 2/3rds of the US storm, perhaps biblical for spots east of the MS River.

Huge longwave trough develops on January 15h, with a strong to intense - EPO/+PNA coupled with the -AO/-NAO regime. Big storm potential between the 15-19th EPS likes the storm next week!

00z GFS is the quietest 6 day outlook I have seen for winter. A lot of wave interference. Everything in the southern stream gets stretched and phases with the northern stream over New Foundland not southeast of ACY.

I really wonder if the system that misses out to sea this weekend will actually begin to morph into an inverted trough/norlun trough, as upper energy pivots southward around the periphery of the large 50/50 Maritimes low. Also another shortwave in the pacific jet hits the coast Sunday/Monday. Any of these phase, and we have a storm pop out of nowhere.

Weekend threat is dead

EURO was north with the upper low.

Ray, I love miller Bs, they tend to work out more often then not for the Cape and Islands. Especially the Jan 05 system and to a lesser extent the Jan 15 system which was a digging miller B event. Miller Bs are the best for my area. We have to wait another ten days, the wait is killing me for a great Cape Cod storm. I would not be surprised to see this weekend begin to pop back up to a Cape Cod special down the line. Models have a different solution every run, there is no continuity and no consensus.

Huge potential and yet very far away from happening. We have a pattern characterized by a building +PNA, a budding -AO and a substantial -NAO block like pattern. One issue in the pattern is the strongest PV like low is over the Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada. This entity is causing a massive southern dislodge of a streak called confluence. Confluence is the property of the atmosphere where the jets are coming together, like convergence. This supports a strong area of surface high pressure, since convergence at mid to upper levels promotes sinking air to the surface, while divergence promote lift i.e. precipitation and moisture. What we have hear are three systems influencing one another and mucking the other's potential. We have an arctic jet vorticity maximum rounding the western circulation of the PV (50/50 low) into Northern and Central New England by 3 1/2 days out. Models also have multiple southern stream disturbances over the Central Plains. Now with several energetic systems in play, there is the question of timing and phasing. Again, we will not know until within 18-24 hours from onset of precipitation. Again, a lot to process.

The major change in the last 24-30 hours has been the digging of the southern branch and how close to the Gulf Coast the surface low gets before moving northeastward towards the NC coastline. Also, this allows the northern branch 50/50 low over eastern Labrador, Canada to move out more before the system phases with arctic energy leftover. Again, a big nor'easter potential, if it were to happen, needs the arctic vorticity max to round the 50/50 H5 low circulation and further southwest than modeled, or it moves out just a bit quicker and allows the system up the coast while providing a cold air mass.

Major change in the 18z EURO was how much slower the storm movement has become in the southern stream branch. I mean the system has barely moved off the NC coastline at hour 90.

While we did not see the end results we would have liked to see for a more confident forecast and therefore a stronger storm signal on the 00z runs, the EURO did show a more substantial change to the evolution at H5. Interesting regardless of what ends up happening in the end. We have a good 96 hours until the low hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Very interesting setup at hour 108 on the 00z EURO for the Saturday nor'easter/ocean storm potential.

00z EURO is leaning towards the 00z UKMET in their own group with no sign of an arctic vorticity max rounding the 50/50 low and instead a large ridges sits over the trough acting as a block sending it east after it hits the wall of the 50/50 low and Ontario, Canada Ridge zone of confluence. The other models are not yet on board, and yet the EURO and UKMET are in one group of their own.

The typically quick and progressive NAVGEM is one of the more amplified and western based models for this weekend.

The 00z GEFS mean is leaning west this run. Strong spread to the west of the mean surface low track. Interesting to see how the CMC, UKMET and EURO and ensembles play along tonight

I am confused Tip?

Ray, all I was commenting on, was that there is a few days left to determine how the streams will interact and how if any phasing occurs and the timing of the phase. Models all show some type of phasing between the surface and 700mb until it is near 40N/65W when the phasing begins at H5. No one knows what will happen. Right now, best guess is we won't know until 24 hours out.

Man go do that Ray.

Oh this is 84 hours out, system for our area is less than 5 days out now.

NAM and GFS are handling the arctic shortwave vorticity lobe differently in the 00z run then the previous several cycles. Also there is a strong southern stream shortwave/upper level low closed off in the Southeast/Gulf Coast states. The NAM is simply over amplified with the southern stream and the arctic vorticity maximum.

odds never favor a massive storm. So with that in hand, no we will likely not see a massive hit. Just wait and see how this plays out, odds are the shortwave will not go where it needs to go for the area to get a widespread event.

Yeah that one was not the case here, and I was at boot camp, at least headed to San Antonio, Texas for Lackland AFB, Air Force Basic Military Training!

That area of upper level low pressure is an arctic jet vorticity lobe that tries and phase with the 50/50 low and then into the southern stream trough that develops our coastal/ocean storm for Friday. This low brings very cold air into the region, so if there is a phase, cold air is not an issue.

UKMET is at a great location right now