USCAPEWEATHERAF

Lol that map has CHH and Harwich and the rest of the Outer Cape over 60" of snow

Cape and Islands prefer a better pacific pattern than a North Atlantic Ocean pattern. The +PNA ridge provides a dump of true arctic air into the country and the coastline does a better job in +PNA patterns over a -NAO

We get this Tuesday system to develop a bit faster once it hits the ocean and south of Long Island, we might be in business for something a bit bigger, but right now a track into Gulf of Maine does nothing for us!

Yeah like a regionwide 4-8" event or two with 6-12" iso 12" on the coastal plain, Cape and Islands due to their closer proximity to the storm and ocean moisture source

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The 12z GEM and 18z RGEM both show a possible minor event sometime Friday evening, right now it is just too far southeast, but the signal is at least there!

Scott, Ray, I think that area of strong vorticity, within the shortwave trough that arrives over the GRT Lakes between 72-84 hours, depending upon which model you use and which timing is ultimately correct in the end, has a chance to dig more and become a miller B. The question becomes if the trough can tilt negatively at all before reaching the coastline of NJ than it may have a shot at producing snow on the coast. Don't know! However, the 00z guidance is coming around on the overall synoptic scale pattern like a giant H5 low and trough moving into the Great Lakes and central US. This longwave trough is perpetuated by a long wave +PNA ridge that develops in the inter PNA/EPO regions.

There is a miller B potential around the 13/14th period which is Wednesday or Thursday next week. An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday and then off the Mid Atlantic coast around DE on Wednesday/Thursday,. Models handle the system differently. We will have a definite answer in 60 hours as the energy comes onshore the West Coast.

What are we pushing back to ten days? The pattern change is still around on the models for next week Friday/Saturday no matter the type of storm that hits. Cutters are notorious for pattern changing systems. There is a strong amplifying northern stream disturbance over the Midwest around 84 hours that needs to be watched. Seems to be our next weather maker.

Snowing here on the mid-outer Cape, again, flurries to light snow at times!

Then I pray that is the case, because those type of discussions are extremely entertaining with you included in them, plus it is a real threat within four days!

Also miller Bs are a safer bet because it seems for the models we know their schedule, 7 days out we see the storm produce, 4-7 days out we are missing the storm to the southeast, then within 3 days, we have the storm become a monster or it is out to sea, maybe see a NW trend last minute. With the previous pattern that continues today, we have to rely on too much happening for a coastal storm to make the trek up the Eastern Seaboard, a miller B is more certain.

It is showing the pattern change and that is all we want at this juncture, keep showing us the miller B snowstorms I do not care where they are until within 5 days.

Nah, how about an H5 low closed off of Long Island, NY

Ocean Effect Snow Showers are now likely to impact Cape Cod and the Islands east of the Canal tonight throughout tomorrow towards Sunday morning. Large low pressure center with attendant energy at H5 will move southeast by about 300 miles of the benchmark tomorrow morning. Latest guidance suggests that the large piece of H5 energy with the system will move far out over the open ocean but an area of low pressure at H5 will try and develop off of Chatham and cause a trough like feature to bring the flow back easterly over SNE. This entity will try and focus an ocean effect snow event over the Cape and Islands and at times impact coastal PYM county. Right now, ocean effect clouds have begun to develop in the cold and brisk northerly surface low that will only become stronger throughout the day Saturday as winds gust to 30 knots at times out of the NNE or N. Although ocean to 850mb differential or Delta Ts are not as impressive as one would like for strong instability, there is enough of a difference for bands to develop. Again, nothing significant is expected, but that does not mean something unexpected won't develop. Little accumulations are the high end of the potential chart of an inch.

It will lol

The ocean effect processes has begun, with clouds developing over the northern portions of Cape Cod Bay. Winds turning to the NNE at HYA while PVC and CHH at NW winds.

Oh guys, it might have been Neptune, the February 14/15th, 2015 Nor'easter, that mega band of heavy thundersnow that drifted southwest from the NH Seacoast.

Yeah, how far north does the initial banding push into the confluence zone, and does it reach the Islands?

Yes there is, the question becomes how far north does the initial push reach!

Our big trough and upper level low is more amped and isn't budging with the northern stream disturbance nearing the New Brunswick, Canada region. There has been no phasing between the two jets.

The monster +PNA/-EPO coupled West Coast Ridging is the key ingredient to awesome arctic air masses and coastal storms in SNE, that impact NJ to Cape Cod and Maine. The -NAO in conjunction might be able to slow the storm's movement down if a block develops in tandem.

That has been on that operational model for the past 24 hours.