USCAPEWEATHERAF

Its snowing about 1000 feet here, but the surface is a bit dry

Lightning Explorer real time Lightning is being observed all over the western Atlantic Ocean over the Gulf Stream. Our storm is down to 1010mb or less. Storm is likely to explode in the coming hours. Bombogenesis was expected, but this storm seems to be organizing faster than modeled and closer to the benchmark. Watch as the booming comma-head develops it will inch westward until the bombing starts and the precipitation shield shrinks. Models were lazy on the development phase happening right now, with NYC receiving less than an inch of snow.

8:30 pm update - Harwich, MA flurries began, temp of 36F

Hey Paul, I think you can get some accumulating snows tomorrow!

Will what do you think about this shortwave tilting negative quicker on the latest model trends? I mean every piece of guidance has trended towards a quicker tilt negative like before NYC and a stronger surface low that develops now west of the benchmark? However the models I think are too far south with the system!

I don't know if they are handling the shortwave accurately!

Hey Will is it snowing where you are, observations say it is snowing there right now! Man I am liking the look on the latest HRRR and RAP.

Hey Tip, I am sorry, your hood is not in line for anything weather wise the next seven days, but that does not mean the southerners in the region won't get impacted. The coastal storm is close enough that I am going to monitor the latest and Worcester is getting snow showers right now.

Hey Bob, should we put together a separate observations thread since it will be snowing for places the next three days?

That is a good question, but the imagery on water vapor looks quite decent. Judging by experience. If you want facts, well it is a discernible piece of energy on all guidance!

Will, that is an intense shortwave moving through the northern stream over WI and MN right now. Models have been trending towards a stronger vort max and a faster in timing negative tilting shortwave trough. If it tilts before reaching NYC, we are in trouble and could see a hefty band of snow!

I don't know Kevin, persistence lasts only so long. The NAM has been struggling with this system still. It only takes a slightly faster negative tilt and our region sees more snow. the HRRR model keeps updating with a better scenario at H5.

kevin your hood could see a few inches tomorrow afternoon/evening. This arctic air that is coming in is quite deep, 850mb temps near -12 to -18C, this will help spark cyclogenesis on a faster clip south of Long island as the negative tilting H5 shortwave reaches the ocean! Newest 18z models are showing a faster deepening, closer to New Jersey, like the last few cycles of the RGEM have been showing. Also the 18z HRRR is trending with a stronger initial band of snow moving through!

No problem, I think the EURO is on to the event, but the QPF is paltry. The NAM seems to be less bullish then most of the guidance. The 18z NAM is coming in with a faster negative tilt. System seems a bit more north!

Ray parts of central and southern CT, Ri and South Coast of MA including the Cape and Islands look to be in for a few inches tomorrow evening on the 18z HRRR

I am telling everyone on here, this clipper/miller B that was recently modeled to miss way too far to the east, is now impacting the Cape and Islands and parts of Eastern MA tomorrow. The 12z EURO and every piece of guidance is trending towards a faster tilt negative and a faster development to the surface system as it exits off the NJ coast and tracks south of Long Island. I think parts of SE MA will at least see an inverted trough develop.

Tomorrow has a good chance to drop a few inches in spots east of the CT River Valley. My guess is that the models continue to trend towards a faster development closer to 73W instead of 70W near 39-40N latitude. Previous days, the models have been too far north and then too far south. The system is currently over the western Lakes.

There are always reasons to be optimistic!

If you ask me, I would rather monitor something like this, then say it is all over for the next ten days! Sorry if I am a little optimistic, I think we all need to be right now and not lose our dignity!

I am telling you Scott, if the NAM is not a fluke run, we could be having something boil up in the next 24-48 hours and within 72 hours!

Need to see a trend before I jump in on the Friday/Saturday storm threat since the 18z NAM is the first run to show what I mean. The southern stream disturbance/ie upper trough and closed upper low over the Baja, CA region previously was caught in the same place and awaited energy further down the line in the northern stream to dive southward and capture the energy, however, the most recent 18z NAM shows by 72 hours that the energy begins to become progressive and moves out ahead of the 22nd northern stream shortwave/closed upper level low that phases with the vortex over central Southern Canada over the next 72 hours and brings with it an intense arctic air mass, 850mb temps below -12C. If trends continue or if this is more than just a blip run on the NAM, we will know at 00z, maybe more sampling of the northern stream energy involved, then this could lead to a potential phasing storm system in the 96 hour window.

I did not mind the 12z EURO, i mean of course the storms missing sucks, but a few adjustments to the large vortex that develops southeast of New Foundland things can trend differently, likely by the next run. However, there is a strong chance the Cape and Nantucket cash in on some accumulating snow with both systems. Ocean effect banding, or at least enhancement of the moisture will benefit the Cape with heavy arctic air present. Delta Ts will finally be sufficient enough for heavy ocean effect snows. We just need the clippers to develop closer to the Benchmark, or a quicker intensification. the 12z EURO almost does it with the WED and FRI systems!

12z EPS and EURO op like the Thursday night/Friday event.

feb 06, i GOT 8"

Tuesday night / Wednesday morning could really produce something, I would say chances at 2" around 15%