USCAPEWEATHERAF

It likely is, it always has been a bias of the models

H5 looks different, we won't have a clue on the end game until Wednesday evening or Thursday 00z runs!

I have a feeling we won't know the end game for this storm until Wednesday evening!

Icon looks different for the 1/29 storm as well, looks like the s*#t streak north of Maine is gone in the 00z run of the ICON, there is no piece to phase or to interrupt the intensification process!

The good news about the trend is that it is six days and will just as easily reverse!

While the ocean storm passes way to the southeast on all guidance at this moment, I guess I can be satisfied with one of the best ocean effect snow event parameters in place I have ever seen personally on models four to six days out! EURO, GFS both show an extremely long period of NNE to NE winds between ten and thirty knots with delta ts over 20C. This should provide a strong band of heavy snow on the Cape. GFS showed this strong signal on the 6z run, only to lose it the next 12z run. However, the winds and temps stayed the same! This is a highly volatile pattern and I would rather have the intense benchmark tracking nor'easter with a widespread three feet. However, if the OES is the best out of this situation I will still be happy!

It is that random piece of vorticity that rotates around the Maritimes blocking vortex that reaches into New England and knocks down the trough that was entering the Mid-Atlantic States by hour 138. We need that piece to be delayed or sped upwards in timing so it has very little impact on our system.

I will gladly take a day of sunshine and dry and cold weather on Tuesday for glory on the 27-29th period. Glory I mean a legit KU storm ala Nemo (FEB 13) and Juno (JAN 15).

I mean between OES clouds and storm clouds, we do not see a clear sunny day for an 102 hour period, now it will not be snowing the entire time, man that would be awesome and arctic circle like climo. Oh the monster storm that phases too late with the Maritimes vortex actually gets blocked south of New Foundland. A 957mb low is a type of intensity you want 75 miles southeast of the benchmark if you are in my neighborhood given the circulation is monstrous and ocean marine influence might play a factor, unless the arctic high is in position. We can just get this system to phase better and earlier further west, we will see a monster nor'easter.

12z GEM was cloudy on Cape Cod hour 138 through Hour 240

This past NYD?

You know what this period reminds me of, not synoptically speaking, but emotional feeling and somewhat storm positioning is the last week of Jan 16 after Jonas and before FEB 08, 2016 struck the region. Remember how intense that system was and how large the circulation was that it got snow into the I95 corridor and points west when the center was 100 miles plus southeast of the benchmark? I got like a foot of snow!

It has been trending since 00z runs

Oh thanks Ray. Nah I was just saying that is why.

That wasn't what I was saying Ray, I have been on this forum long enough to realize that, and tracking weather since 2004, as a sophomore in High School, I know better. I just meant, that whatever pattern at H5 owning to the more west and northwest positioning of the surface high means a chance for a short term trend to the northwest with our day 7 system!

Will, the orientation of the surface high over the central US and Canada could lead to a trend northwest with the Day 7 system down the road. It is not in the notorious north of the low track position that keeps it shunted out to sea, but instead over central US and Canada and bananas over towards Quebec. It isn't centered over Maine. Also the GFS is leaning towards a potential trend northwest in the latest run as the low is captured by the closed H5 low and tracks northward once out to sea. Just need it captured closer. I mean that low is a bomb, do not want to waste a system like that in the winter with a high to the north.

Just to allow time to pass by without being miserable, I am going through the JAN 15 blizzard pre storm discussion thread 1

Never mind, the 12z EURO is just like the 12z GFS with the Day 7-8 (Jan 28-29th) threat as well. A monster sub 980mb low that gets shoved out to sea because that PV lobe just sits over Southern Canada and the Northern USA border and shreds everything or shunts everything south of our region. Good luck getting a KU with no PNA ridging, and no ridging over the Maritimes ahead of the trough!

Well this pattern has made forecasting easy for New England forecasters. I mean dry and sunny, but cold each day for the foreseeable future. 12z is liking the Day 7 threat that the GFS just shoves southeast into Bermuda!

Lol, "not gonna happen" might as well keep perpetuating that this storm will not happen, like Scott N said for the Blizzard of Jan 15.

i think this becomes a good storm for the Cape and Islands, perhaps our first real all snow threat since last year. Again, still too early to say with any sort of confidence. We need a consistent consensus to develop before I am jumping onto said solution. Learned my lesson with the lack of snow the last few weeks.

Showers are popping all over MA and CT right now heading southeastward. More numerous then I remembered on the short range guidance

Some radar images and satellite images look like the storm is pivoting with the developing CCB portion and other images it looks like it is sliding east too fast!

It looks like the heaviest band sat right over interior SE MA,

Snowing at Otis ANGB right now, visibility within 3 sm