USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF
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What does a strengthening H5 low lead too?
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Scott, do you think confidence is decreasing for the norlun band tomorrow hitting the Cape?
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???
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It is aided by upper level flow, divergent flow
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Its a surface boundary, like a coastal front, an extension from the ocean storm, it gets absorbed in the flow around the storm later today
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Will, would you describe this ocean enhanced snows as a boundary or a surface meso-low along a boundary that gets absorbed by the larger circulation of the surface low ocean storm. It is a convergent boundary!
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NWS is forecasting 4-6" across the outer Cape, from Harwich and Dennis eastward to Chatham and northward to Provincetown.
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00z HREFs golden for the Outer Cape (6-8" on the mean) (12-15" on the max), 12z runs later tomorrow will be fantastic. 2"-2.5"/hour rates on the mean
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Gulf of Maine is running between 5-7 degrees Celsius at the moment and with an airmass at 850mb as cold as -15 to -25C overhead, that puts our delta ts at +20-22 and 30-32C potential differentials. That is extreme instability no matter what numbers you want to use.
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backhanded compliment by Ray, hell I will take it
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yeah it was brief, but the fact is the model is picking it up!
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Like why then do the QPF maps not depict such an outcome?
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In simple terms Will, spell that out for me?
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Someone mentioned earlier that dangerous lightning with snowfall rates of 6-10"/hour, that would be pure insanity.
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How the heck do we get that type of lift? Would that be rates over 5"/hour? 3KM NAM produces max 10M winds of 60-70mph over the Cape
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NWS BOS is finally getting on board with their snow map and probability maps. Currently forecasting 2" for CHH, their higher snowfall map 1-10 map shows 5"CHH and 4"PVC while the 6-8" color is just nicking the National Seashore.
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NAM 3km brings hurricane force winds at 850mb as the mesolow and snow band moves through the Cape.
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Scott, Will. did you see the mesolow on the 40-48 hour HRRR 18z run?
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Scott, Will, if the soundings of the models shows lightning potential, why doesn't the graphic on the model page show it? The flash density product on the NCEP site?
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Where this band stalls, models are showing insane amounts, the UKMET 12z run today showed a 42" spot just west of Western shoreline of Nova Scotia.
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Will what about east of Hyannis, MA from Yarmouth to Chatham and north to Provincetown?
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Kuchera maps might be the best bet for accurate snowfall amounts as the arctic air is involved leading to a lower DGZ.
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There is a little sweet spot when the surface low develops near the western shore of Nova Scotia where the models are just dumping a huge amount of snow, likely where the band begins to develop because it stalls for a time, the UKMET brings up to 42" in this area. The models all have a similar jack zone. Man I would love to have 42 inches in a 12 hour period!
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What about the Cape?
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Yeah I ended up with 3.5" at the end, it was more than I thought I would get. The last band produced! Bob, I really think this band is going to crush the eastern part of the Cape, east of Hyannis. Could be a ten mile difference between crushed a mediocre!
