LongBeachSurfFreak

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking better on satellite. The eye is more concentric and not so chunky.

I was just about to post the exact same thing. Last frame the eye really looks good. If they were going strictly by DVORK that would up intestity 

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit.

I think we may be seeing some dry air issues. There really isn’t anything screaming weakening right now. Outflow looks good so shear is light and ocean temps are steadily warming. 

7 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed.

I wouldn’t say that’s set in stone yet. It’s going to take a while to slow a storm of that intensity down. And that’s probably a good part of why that wacky turn is not reflected in the NHC forecast. They also cannot windshield wipe with each model run. Florence is going to create its own upper atmosphere environment. It’s extremely rare for a storm of that magnitude to turn SW in the tropics let alone the mid latitudes. Personally I just don’t buy it and I would stick with a landfall around Wilmington 

Just had some tropical type downpours in wantagh which brought the 2 day total over 2” and the 4 day approaching 4”. Definitly a feast or famine pattern we can’t seem to buy a drop of rain followed by extremely wet periods. Another example of the “stuck” patterns we have been experiencing. 

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Old Howard Beach this morning by the subway

More moderate costal flooding with this evenings high tide. More on par with what we usually see with a strong winter nor’easter. 

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Coastal flooding just made it to the moderate level here along the Great South Bay. The lowest streets have some flooding.

 

Definitely moderate as the end of my street was flooded and only does so with moderate events. We lucked out with the timing of the biggest swells from Florence arriving later in the week. Had those swells arrived during a moderate coastal flood event there could have been serious erosion issues.

Not a fun day to be an ocean life guard as it’s one of the coldest days I have ever sat in the stand.  Some swell from Florence has arrived though fairly small owing to distance and decay. 

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cell mergers taking place along the South Shore as the outflow boundary collides with the sea breeze front.

 

Very unusual wind direction with the strongest gusts here, NNE. Not what we usually get with thunderstorms. Could have something to do with being between the two stronger cells

Just had a couple good gusts in wantagh probably around 40mph. 

Thoughts on storms for later? The immediate south shore has been extremely dry, to the point that lawns a brown and perrenials and annuals are dying. 

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Recods for Thu Sep 6 all look safe but could be close in LGA and PHL.

 

ACY: 98 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1881)
LGA: 94 (1983)
EWR: 97 (1983)
TTN: 99 (1983)
PHL: 95 (1983)
JFK: 94 (1961)
ISP:  90 (1985)

I’m assuming that super impressive NYC 97 is from that incredible and sustained heatwave that killed a ton of people. That was the 1800s equivalent of one of our stuck patterns. Unc posted some great stuff on that a couple years ago. I would have to imagine we see something like that but more intense some time in the next few years Northern Europe had that this summer. Where records are just crushed. 

I’ll call it the forky pattern 

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic.  Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding.  Misinformation- I don’t think so.

I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. 

One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it  and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season.

Hawaii has that area of cooler water just to its east that generally protects it. This storm would bypass most of that area. Iniki showed that Hawaii can be hit by a major if the storm is coming from the south. This scenario is kind of a blend of the two. Weakening wouldn’t be compeltly from cooler waters but rather a combo of that and higher wind shear. Even if this does threaten Oahu and Kaua’i its likely as a tropical storm.  

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

it's a phrase. 

there'll be pockets of wind damage...maybe even an isolated area of widespread damage if there happens to be a microburst. Most of the downed trees will probably be rotted trees that Bambi pissed on 

These super wet cells have a pretty good propensity for micro bursts. There will definitely be areas of wind damage 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Balsam fir is relatively short-lived, subject to internal defect, shallow rooted, and with dense evergreen foliage.  What's not for the wind to like?

I agree that foliage was key - by late October on LI I'd guess leaf drop had been considerable on non-oak species, so not only did they have more sail area still rigged but lacked protection from their neighbors.  In addition, oak crowns tend to be wider than those of the other species noted, and that would be particularly true on the sand-rich soils on much of the island.  That wide-branching growth habit may be why oaks in NNJ took some of the worst damage in the NW gales back on 12/31/62 - seeing bare-limbed large white oaks, usually deeper rooted than reds, being tipped out of semi-frozen soil (my temps for that day were 5/-8) was surprising.

What were the winds like during that event. During sandy we had about 6 hours of gusts to around 60 out of the east followed by about 2 hours with gusts to 80 out of the south east.

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

For those 2 species there's probably little difference - perhaps the elm might go first.  Substitute aspen for either and the difference becomes stark.  Aspen wood is far weaker and it's not only a tall species but one with all its foliage near the top, thus maximizing the wind's leverage.  On my woodlot (and anywhere else I've looked), aspen suffers most from wind when leaves are full, balsam fir when leaves have fallen.

Interesting about the balsam fir.  

I did extensive hiking around Long Island after sandy and determined that species acted different then expected. Oaks received by far the most damage. They tended to fully uproot. I was able to locate several full blow downs in a preserve near my house. 100 mature red and white oaks toppled like dominos. Meanwhile red maple, sweet gum, black gum and tulip right next to them where perfectly fine.

My theory on why the oaks took such a comparable beating is due to their folliage. Oak leaves are very robust and thus tended to stay on the tree during the many hours of strong winds leading up to the period of extreme winds that caused the blow downs. Most of the other species had a good amount of their folliage stripped earlier in the storm.   

September 15th

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Shot of the 100ft oak? maple? I dunno, it’s a big tree.  

 

It’s a red maple 

9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Amy Freeze said the city would get 1-3 inch total snowfall at her 8:20 am update this morning.

Central Park reported 4.8 inches at 8am this morning. Sometimes they are so clueless you just shake your head.

She’s a bumbling moron. And I hate talking that negatively about somone. But she’s really that bad. Lee is the best in the business and Jeff smith is also top notch. Bill Evans is meh in my opinion. He’s got a good screen presence for the general public. Amy has none of the other three’s qualities which makes me really wonder how she’s lasted so long. 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's insane.  Probably another 4-6" today but we'll know later with the Stake checks.

It's snowing close to 1"/hr still and seems to have no plans to stop. 

That’s such a classic a radar loop for you guys. The northern spine is doing its thing!!! 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

32" at 3,000ft... about two-thirds of the way up but yeah, that's high elevation total.

25" at the office elevation.

Probably another couple inches since that too.

Glad you guys are getting the goods now too!!! That should help thin out the crowds this weekend. Nothing like a gondola ride up with Stowe locals who headed south last weekend. Stratton broke it’s all time financial record Saturday!!

2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

 I have seen every report they sent in over the past 3-4 years and quietly questioning the total validity of their numbers.  I mean they are always just so outrageous in every single event, like every one. I figured being at the crest there benefits them a ton and it really is an uber weenie spot, but now with you close by you can kind of cross check.   

Although Wilmington VT reported 20" over the past 2 days before anything today which falls kind of line with Woodfords-- before the upslope today.

If you do take their reports as accurate, they have had 93" in the past week or so, which is insane.

I can’t wait to get back up there tomorrow night. The amount of snow has been nothing short of epic. And that was before this event. How did you do in this one?

Moderate snow in nyc right now. You guys are so lucky, just missed this one here 

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bring 6-12 NYC - ALB axis 

Agreed, how many times have we seen the best banding set up well Nw of the forecast!!!

Can someone give a rundown of local on airs for 11pm I do not have access to tv at work