LongBeachSurfFreak

Actually had a decent sized branch break in today’s gusty winds. I’m the winter they would be  run of the mill but with trees in full leaf here they are impactful.

im starting to get excited for nexts weekends storm. Obviously not from a winter perspective but for a good wind and coastal flooding event.

12 hours ago, Professional Lurker said:

Have fun guys.  Be living (skiing) vicariously through you all this year.  Post tons of pics!

I’ll post a ton of pics from Stratton. I did 30 days last winter and I’m shooting for 40 this year!!!

37.0 at the wantagh meso which is a little exposed on the top of a man made hill. First frost on some of the roofs in my neighborhood so it was probably a couple degrees cooler in more sheltered areas.

43 in wantagh. Might have a shot at some frost in the morning 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it was horrendous, and in Mass they had 30" of snow! In October!

 

Did you get anything out your way?  in SW Nassau we had 1.5" or so could have gotten more but the precip fizzled out with the temp hovering around 32-33 lol.  The 6" line made it to the Bronx which was amazing and NYC was under a Winter Storm Warning in October!  That's like being under a Winter Storm Warning in May lol.

For us though the event the following year, after Sandy, was bigger, 8.5" of snow in the first week of November- the trees that got weakened by Sandy but didn't go down went down in that one.

 

Funny thing with these early season events the south shore does better than the north shore because we have an offshore wind from the North while the north shore is warmer because the wind comes off the Sound for them.

I was living in long beach at the time and we got a slushy coating on closer surfaces. Same in wantagh where I live now. I drove NW to see the snow and there was def a line in queens where it went from a coating to a legit snow event. The north shore had nothing as you said. That was a truly incredible event followed by an awful winter 

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep and in the mountains just north and west of Allentown a lot more, my sister in Albrightsville had 20" with lots of thundersnow during the day and plenty of tree damage!

The tree damage in NW CT was incredible. Especially with oaks which drop their leaves late. The same reason oaks suffered during sandy. It looked very similar to the damage in the Montreal area after the 98 ice storm. Whole canapys bent down but the trunks remaining.

if we do happen to have a high wind event there will be allot of tree damage here as the trees are behind from the warm September. Hopefully the cold this week and next will speed things up.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS still has the storm for the end of the month. Looks like a system cutting through the Great Lakes with a Gulf Of Mexico low coming up the coast. Main question on intensity is how much phasing will occur.

 

Could be out last shot at a big coastal for a while. I wouldn’t expect any snow at the coast but it could be a blue bomb for areas above 2k in the Catskills and New England. Then afterwards November is notorious for cutters. 

Very windy on the UWS currently. Leaves are blowing every where which definitely adds to the fall feel.

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Holy! Did you see the new UKMET?

It shows the most anomalously cold air on the planet located over the eastern USA during winter 2018-19, a big time trend compared to the previous run. 

Ben Noll

Every model is pointing to a cold and snowy winter for the east. Hopefully it stays like that.

I never like to be in the bullseye this far out. But another 95/96 wall to wall winter would be shangrala for me.

And I like Bluewaves point. A blizzard of 1888 track with today’s much moister atmosphere would be a 50-60” storm for us. Let’s do it before we eventually cross that threshold of not having enough cold air

Winds were strong enough during that brief window this morning to knock down a few small branches in wantagh. Pretty impressive for a storm from the gulf interacting with an early fall front. Michael definitly wound up way north of forecast. The hurricane models did best with its track

2.31” in wantagh with very gusty northerly winds. 

If if it were 2 months later Suffolk would be getting pounded by a ccb with incredible rates 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever. 

I agree but it waxes and wanes so we win some and we loose some. As long as we do not have a repeat of 01/02 where the whole country is wall to wall warmth I’m ok with loosing a couple 

5 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said:

I predict Central Park will get 54 inches of snow this winter 2 inches for November, 18 inches December, 20 for January and 14 for February. March will get a trace.

Based on?

28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

You could say the same thing about PCB if the storms western eyewall had hit there, or 80% of the other major cities on the coastline.

While I agree somewhat, I was referring to point st. Joe not port. Point is that tiny little barrier island. Not all barrier islands are equal and that one looks especially bad. It’s basically just a sand bar. There was one area of Rhode Island that was similar and completely destroyed during the hurricane of 38. It was not rebuilt even back then.

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

The pressure didn’t even fall below 29.2, which means it bottomed out around 990. Way outside the eyewall. 

Exactly, not even close. Just like Andrew all the intense wind was with the core of the eyewall. Intensifying high end storms do this. 

2 hours ago, SharonA said:

It will be rebuilt.  That region is a popular tourist destination and snowbird spot for those who want oceanfront-type activities without paying the prices of Cedar Key and South Florida.  Plus, it's several hours closer than South Florida destinations which for a family driving in from the western side of things, coming down the I-65 corridor, that can mean an extra day or two vacation.

I'd happily buy a big chunk of land there if I had the money to spare. 

 

I wonder is there is anything out of point st. Joe. That, looking at a map is an area that should not be rebuilt. A long barrier island ending in a state park. That rest of it should be added to the state park. 

About as perfect an eye wall you will see hitting land. And I saw the Forrest outside homestead afterwards as a kid. Complete and total blowdown of pines. Maybe 1/100 still standing. 

6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Oh it is.  How far NW will it come though is the question that remains.

Pretty incredible sluge of moisture. If it were February we would be waiting for on for the ages to start 

4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

78/73

Tell me about it, I’m working on a huge terrace project and I’m sick of sweeting.

suns out on the uws. Destabilization time 

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM develops a really impressive sting jet east of NJ when Michael emerges off the coast on Friday.

 

Wow that’s impressive. I thought that was 925 at first 

That first batch definitly had that tropical feel to it. Those super high PWATS are going to dump on somone later. The question is where. Right now I would favor inland areas closer to the front. Michael may scrape the far East end but that’s about it. I’m more looking forward to a nice windy fall day tomorrow. 

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Of that we’re to verify we would have tropical storm conditions on the island 

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp 78/DP 72/RH 76%

Summer continues, for now.

Brutal in Manhattan today. I cannot wait for some legit fall weather to work in. 

I could easily see is being just to far north for the Michael precip and just too far south for the front. Winds should be pretty gusty Friday morning out of the north which will bring down any loose leaves as we have had a lack of even moderate winds lately 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS gets the Michael-associated rain shield pretty close, maybe 50 miles SE of Long Island last run. Can't rule out at all a bump north on that and a slower front. It'll be hauling though so flood concerns should be limited. Unfortunately NC/SC doesn't need another drop. 

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised to see it trend north. There could also be some gusty winds (in the 30s) associated with it as it goes through extra tropical translation and the wind field expands. 

15 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

Sandy was a glorified nor’easter.