LongBeachSurfFreak

The city is a disaster!!! Busses stuck everywhere 

ripping right now with about 5”

About 3-4” and ripping on the uws tiny flake size too

Up to moderate snow now on the UWS. Instant accumulations 

Light snow UWS

Just now, CarLover014 said:

Pretty much tough year round. Very hard to get an all snow event. Usually will turn to sleet at some point.

Yeah, your the one poster on here that most likely sees no snow. 

9 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Toms River, NJ. Already spitting rain.

Ohhhh, makes sense, I thought you were on eastern LI. Even a NE flow is onshore for you. Tuff place for early season snow!!!

7 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

Dude we’re colder and more north this isn’t a coating for Central Park mark my words. I’m in Central Park today and I will personally go and measure and show you guys

It doesn’t matter how far north you are with an east flow in November, your missing the point. In this case west is best.

And go back and re-read my post I said 2” at 120th and Broadway. I’m only about 2 miles from where they take the snow obs in Central Park. 

28 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

36 now. Dew point at 30. That East wind is killing me

What’s your exact location? Wantagh meso which is right on the water is 32.

low of 30 with a forecast of 25

2 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

DC is getting it good right now.

They are much further west then us and away from the ocean. I remember an early season event in early December about 10 years ago where they snowed and we rained.

I still like a coating for the coast and 2” for the far Uws where I work (120th and Broadway)

42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You have all the main ingrediants needed for a good snowstorm. Sun angle is a non issue. Really only problem is the warm air push aloft which would have been there if this storm was 6 weeks from now.

It would be 17 -10 with this airmass 6 weeks from now. This would be a major ice storm then for the city Nw. I agree though, the island would change to rain even then.

im going with 2” here on the Uws with a combo of snow and sleet with a glaze. Coating at home then to plain rain

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal was posted on their free site which originally came out on November 5th. It continues this late November -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern right through March. This looks like it may be the latest version of 2010's patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods of time.

If it’s going to get stuck, that’s exavtly how we want it.

My confidence in a big winter is increasing. I just told my director this yesterday and his reaction was huh? 

Spent the daylight hours in the 30s today. Pretty amazing for mid November 

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm a bit more pessimistic about snow chances than I was yesterday. The surface low has trended stronger which keeps the flow more easterly at the mid levels while the low levels have trended colder thanks to CAD. Models almost always under forecast low level cold air so it's really not a surprise. Think a safe bet is a coating to an inch in the usual highly urbanized areas in and around NYC with 2-4" for the NW burbs and the Hudson Valley. Not thinking much for Long Island at this time but I could see the North shore of Suffolk accumulating some. Overall think that the biggest threat will be with freezing rain and sleet. Some areas, especially North of Rt 80 and West of the Hudson river may not get above freezing at the surface until well after midnight on Friday morning. Even the GFS which is terrible for temperature profiles has those areas hanging onto freezing rain at 06z Friday. 

Still think there is a chance that we snow on Friday morning as the ULL swings through. 

I think this is pretty spot on. Anyone near mid 50s water hoping for accumulating snow on an east flow is in for disappointment. If it were February with upper 30s water temps it would be a different story. Our big November snows on the coast have come with a typical benchmark track and a strong CCB that’s able to inject cold on a strong northerly flow.

i think this is a coating in the city and over to plain rain. 

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done.  I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them.

Up by you, yeah for sure. Amazing amount of tree damage up there last March. The last decade has been horrendous for local trees/forests. 

46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to be a very wet system. Some guidance has over 2" LE. 

Could be a pretty bad situation with heavy wet snow followed by heavy rain (Roof collapses and tree/powerline damage).

Hope that the gutters are cleaned out and that most of the trees are bare.

Easily over 50% of leaves still in the trees here in Manhattan. Any heavy wet snow will be a big issue. Even if it’s only a couple of inches. 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Hit 28.7 the other night.

1.30" from this storm

Wantagh mesonet 1.21"

Ended with 1.40”. Another good soaker. 

18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah. Need to cash in on WAA before dry slot. I'm intrigued.

Any and I mean any east flow and it’s curtains for snow potential on the coast. Definitly not the setup you want for mid November snow potential at sea level with mid 50 water temps. You need a CCB with a strong northerly flow to get it done. I highly highly doubt anyone less then 50 miles inland sees accumulating snow

23 minutes ago, rclab said:

I was an “ I will get it done when it stops” kind of guy. I would tell my beautiful late wife that if it was up to her I would be waiting outside, with the shovel ready, to catch the first snowflake. Now that I’ve lost her and the house is my responsibility, I understand what my love was talking about. It took almost 45 years to get it right but some of us are slow learners. Now, when the occasion arises, I will be out several times enjoying the shoveling, the snowfall and, of course, remembering her.

Sorry for your loss buddy. I work at a place where they want every flake removed as it falls!

29 at the wantagh meso for the first official freeze. Very heavy frost as well. Veggie garden is done!

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a nice downpour for November here in SW Suffolk. 

It was actually a pretty good hit rain wise. Almost no wind though. I just drove through it out to Amityville and there was flooding every where from the leaves.

Just had my satellite tv go out with this squall line. Before any heavy rain started. Interesting as that usually only happens during the heaviest of rain events.   

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models have our next chance of 50 mph or greater wind gusts  and heavy rain with the Friday night convection.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s see if we can get the timing right with the convection. Also this one should have Long Island in a more onshore flow as opposed to a sideways flow with the last event. In that event we saw the highest winds on the Far East end jersey shore where winds were right off the ocean. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see higher gusts this time for the rest of the island. 

20 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Whats the over/under...

It’s gotta be. The writing style is a dead give away. I like the curve ball with the neighbor and the dead tree too. Classic!!!

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Don't forget the day before T-giving 2014. I had a foot here. 

Hence my NW of the city. Late season storms are much more common then early for the coast. It’s really simple, the offshore waters are still warm in November. Just look at October 11 with SE queens getting more snow then the north shore hills of Nassau which average close to 10” more a season. 

1 hour ago, rclab said:

“Wow” as always ............, Rich

One of Pam’s best...

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

we want storms-that's what's important right now-some of our snowiest winters had a parade of November cutters....

Exactly, that’s why we have had how many big November snow storms in most of our life times? The Thanksgiving storm in the late 80s and the post sandy storm. Maybe above 1k NW of the city there have been a couple more. The fact that we have some cold air in play is a good sign.