LongBeachSurfFreak
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Posts posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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6 hours ago, Dan76 said:
correct
Big swell headed for Hawaii and the West Coast!!
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20 hours ago, Dan76 said:TodayW wind 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 47 ft subsiding to 40 ft in the afternoon LOL
Where is that? I’m assuming the gulf of Alaska?
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Happy Thanks Giving from work!! (Double time) paying off my season pass for Stratton!!
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Still a ridiculous amount of green leaves in the city. It’s like the major cold shot never happened.
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3 hours ago, snywx said:
Wow.. Looks like he is going all in on a cold, snowy winter for the NE.
That’s below normal temps and above normal precip wall to wall. That would be a 95/96 type winter if it verfied.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
The Bunker commercial fishing restrictions resulted in a big increase in food supply to bring the Humpbacks into our waters.
The bunker schools have been getting exponentially bigger every year. They were so thick at Jones Beach this summer it turned the water black. Absolutely incredible to see in person!!!
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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:
Definitely. Both explain weather phenomenon very well IMO.
Speaking of leaf drop, my neighbors tree (which is almost entirely over our property) usually doesn't shed until after Thanksgiving, sometimes even into December. However, after last Friday's cold and wind combo, they dropped off faster than I've ever seen before. Most other trees around here are either completely bare, or if they do have leaves it is a mix of brown/dull colors. Really not much green left. Unlike last year, I waited to start raking until now, otherwise the leaves come right back.
That’s what I do at home. After the last time I cut the lawn I wait until all the leaves are down.
Here on campus I have to do them every day
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:
Bradford Pears too-those leaves often stay on if they freeze...
Bradford Pears on campus just now
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59 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:
Jeff Smith on Channel 7 is great too.
Yeah they are both Cornell meteorology grads. That’s pretty solid in my book.
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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:
I have green leaves on some trees here that froze in the cold snap.
Yup! Depending on the species some immediately fell off. I have a tulip tree that dropped all its leaves on Saturday. My silver maples are still holding crinkled green leaves.
Forget about Oaks, I expect some of them to hold green/brown leaves that died in place. Could be an issue if we have an early season wet snow storm before the winter winds eventually strip them down.
i have never seen anything like it on campus. We were progressing like a normal fall just a week late. Since the majority of the big trees are oaks it’s almost as if fall stopped. The leaves are all stuck up in the trees!
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Super excited for tonight’s cold. The reason being all the vegetation. I don’t think there has ever been such extreme cold with over 50% vegetation in the city and on the island. I fully expect sensitive trees to dump all there leaves tomorrow night.
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1 hour ago, psv88 said:
I'll take that bet. $20 your location doesnt see a 6"of greater snowfall before Dec 1?
I’ll happily take that bet. He’s in a great spot with the potential pattern!
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They have a pretty funny guess the snowfall thread in NE anyone want to start one here?
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1 hour ago, Dakota said:
Looks like I made the right choice; as some light snow has broken out here with the temp down to 21 F with a very gusty North wind.
Up at the station just outside of Lead / elev. 6070'; its down to 13 F.
You mentioned that being the snowiest station east of the Rockies. How could they possibly beat the UP of Michigan or the Tug Hill? I get the elevation but it’s pretty dry out there
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2 hours ago, psv88 said:
If it gets below 25 like some models are showing I get nervous. Luckily its been warm lately so the ground will keep things above freezing, other than any exposed pipes and maybe the heads themselves
Unfortunately that’s one thing I don’t do. But I can promise you your absolutely fine. The ground is so warm unless we had a mid winter level arctic airmass (highs in the teens) you will be fine. But as PB said just get it done before real winter sets in, it’s not something to mess around with
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On 11/3/2017 at 1:16 AM, Windspeed said:
A new peer-reviewed study in the British Royal Meteorological Society journal Weather is proposing that Super Typhoon Haiyan is likely the most intense cyclone ever observed in the Satellite Era. They believe the center eye pressure peaked near 860 mb.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3045/fullI have always argued that Haiyan remains the most intense cyclone we have witnessed in modern times. Had there been reconnaissance, no other cyclone's intensity data sets would top it. This paper puts that in perspective for me. I had no idea the station reading at Guiuan existed. Recorded 18 miles from center fix and measured to 910 mb, that observation is bloody insane! Even loosely estimating gradient, a center pressure of 866 mb is calculated. The authors settled on 861 mb and rounded to 860 mb based on a few variables. The eyewall had held a steady state in the 30 hrs following the last visible completion of an ERC. The coldest tower tops around the immediate wall were not warming at the recording of that surface pressure. The diameter of the eye had actually decreased slightly. Given Haiyan was positioned against the southern periphery of an amplified subtropical ridge (STR) at the time, imbedded in an above mean surface pressure regime, the pressure gradient most likely was not loose at that obs timestamp. They still did not go with the tightest gradient scenario however.
The following is an excellent write-up by Bob Henson discussing the paper over at underground:
This may all be semantics and the WMO may or may not take this new research into consideration for crowning Haiyan the most intense on record. But at least from a meteorological standpoint, that surface pressure ob is great evidence to support just why Haiyan's satellite presentation at that timestamp has no equal. Had there been a recon flight around that time, in my mind, the windspeeds would have no doubt been the strongest ever recorded in a tropical cyclone. Obviously, this is still speculation, but I believe it was at least 185 kts or equal to Major Hurricane Patricia. But given the surface pressure obs 18 miles from center fix and given the pressure environment, Haiyan may very well have had higher sustained winds. I realize It is difficult to fathom a 190-200 kts cyclone. But keep in mind, even though Patricia had a tiny core, it was imbedded in a surface trough. The hurricane was moving into a weakness by means of an advancing mid-to-upper trough and southwesterly steering regime. Haiyan's synoptic pattern contrasts significantly as the cyclone was imbedded within a moderate easterly steering flow against a strong mid-level ridge and higher surface pressures.
Obviously, we will never know for certain Haiyan's peak windspeeds with the absence of reconnaissance. After considering all these factors and the new paper, however, I am confident Haiyan is the most intense system even if unofficial. To me it remains the Godzilla of tropical cyclones.
I just saw these posts for the first time. I too have been a big proponent Hiayan being the most intense TC ever observed. If Dvorak went to a 10 it would be a 10. We just haven’t seen another storm with a ring of cloud tops that perfectly cold. Colors usually only seen in hot towers encircled the entire eye.
That and the tsunami like surge just put it in its own league.
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38 minutes ago, Isotherm said:
Turned out much better than it seemed it would a couple weeks ago. Maples are mostly past peak here now, but still holding great color, and oaks are now peak. I think we'll see major leaf drop with the CAA event at the end of this week.
Yeah first freeze in the suburbs should finish things off. The pond near my house (Mill Pond) has excellent foliage. Black Gums are first with deep red, they are done. Right now Red Maple and Sweet Gum are at peak and pretty solid. Oaks here are just starting to show some color.
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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:
Places like that taught me to never make a radical maneuver to avoid a critter in the road. I've watched cars fly off the road to miss things that they would have plowed right through and been able to continue on their way instead of having a wrecked car and being stuck out in the middle of nowhere freezing their patooties off waiting for help. A couple of times I've given people rides into the next town because I wasn't going to sit and burn a tank of gas waiting for a tow in the morning. I've creamed deer and once an elk rather than risking my safety to miss it. Thankfully none of the things I've hit disabled my vehicle but I'd rather be disabled on the road than upside down in a ditch or possibly worse, at least if you're on the road you have a chance at maintaining control but once you're off the road it's out of your hands entirely.
I wouldn’t recommend doing that with a moose
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3 hours ago, Dakota said:
Snowing beautifully now at 5:15 PM MDT / 23:15 GMT. Moderate snow / visibility about 1/2 mile. Temp has plummeted to 26 F as some heavier squalls move through.
Ground whitened for the first time this season.
Wind is light out of the east and east / southeast.
As I said yesterday; since everything to My east is downhill; an east wind here should produce a nice orographic lift (upslope flow) and wring out the moisture; while last night's west winds (as most spots to My west are higher) were subject to adiabatic compressional warming & drying.
"The laws of physics do not cease to exist due to a change in venue", to paraphrase my cousin Vinny.
It is nice to see a minor accumulation for the first time this winter; as Larry Hirsch would say when the Devils would score their first goal of the game, "breaking the seal".
Fred Shero and Larry were terrific together on WMCA.
I feel like a little kitten who has found Her mittens; as My mood has swung back to the "Good Side" of the ledger...
Biggest storms there are usually very early or late (by NY standards) I think your in for a very cold dry winter there
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22 hours ago, Rtd208 said:
NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region.
Nice find, I’m surprised to see the somewhat bullish snow forecasts. This could easily be a clunker
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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:
I remember Halloweens as a kid where most of the trees were bare-this year some remain green, and most are not bare. We blew away 2007's record warm Oct by more than a degree in some cases...
We had a pretty good leaf strip with the storm over the weekend here on the south shore. As in green leaves were ripped off. We are at least 2 weeks behind schedule with color change.
I was sick and have been MIA so what’s up everyone!
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23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
Wtf?
I hope she doesn’t mean what think she means
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1 hour ago, Rjay said:
Pretty insane!!!! Nice find
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I would do anything for a satalite loop of the hurricane of 1938. I would love to know what it's actual structure was at time of landfall in NY
Fall 2017 Banter Thread
in New York City Metro
Posted
Probably just away from the coast in New England. Lower elevation for heat but still access to big storms.