LongBeachSurfFreak

30 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it.

 

This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow.

 

It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City.

I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long.

 

That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

 

 

Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17.

Good thing this is not a super nino. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I highly disagree. All it takes is the right gradient pattern and a stream of storms. It’s a long shot but not impossible.

41 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I believe Jan 10 - Feb 20 is the core this year.

Patience , you need to shake off an amplified p5 and that may take until Jan 10.  ( that`s my start date here ) . 

Good luck to all. 

Exactly my thinking, though I would push it towards the 20th for the big show. Cold will be building in Canada and it will be dislodged. I think there will be nervous times ahead but it will all pay off in the end.

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95-96 is still the gold standard for wall to wall winter snowfall. It was the closest that BNL ever came to a 100” season. BNL had  10” or more every month from December to April which was a first. The late January flood cutter was really the only interruption.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

1995

1996

0

4.5

15.5

23.5

20

11.25

16

90.75

I’m talking NY harbor ice festival type winters. 

95/96 was epic in every possible way. Luckily I was old enough (13) to clearly remember the whole winter. The blizzard of 96 is in my top 10 weather events. And I clearly remember the November snow and April blue bomb. 

I think we have a pretty epic 6 week period coming after the 15th. Luckily this year the peak corresponds with peak climo. Had last March occurred from Jan 15 through feb 15th the coast would have smashed 30 day snowfall records

32 minutes ago, Angus said:

Been waiting for someone to post this here. Snow making pipe failure with water hitting gondola on XMAS eve at Stratton...crazy.

https://youtu.be/Q6PwZB_AK9c

 

I’ll be there tomorrow, I’ll find out the details and let you guys know. I bet they weren’t running the gondola for passengers at the time anyway.

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No lol if it wasnt for that mid November snowstorm we would be shut out for the winter.  Going into January with only a T of snowfall is pretty ominous.  

 

Not really going to plan since no one anywhere that I read predicted we would get shut out in December.  As a matter of fact most forecasts had us with a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy December.  Not a historically one, but along the lines of 2002-03 which was pretty good.

I still think we will have a good winter, but IMO historic is off the table.  I have very high standards for historic and a T in December doesn't make the cut, regardless of what happens later.  IMO NYC can get to 40" seasonal snowfall but I wouldn't bet on anything higher than that.  A very good winter, but not historic.

 

A wall to wall winter is near impossible during our current climate. We have periods of warm and boring bookended by cold and stormy. Even 95/96 had meltdowns. Prior to 1930 maybe. 

27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

You`re an idiot , he predicted a warm 20 day period starting on Dec 13- Jan 2 over a month ago. 

He has been spot on. 

I wouldn’t even bother replying. The guys MO is CFS regurgitate, corny joke and repeat. 

Things are delayed, but they will not be denied. This place was a funeral at the exact time of year in 2014.

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

if I had money I would have invested in oil when it went below 30 dollars   I was so sure it would rise again...I would have tripled my money...If it goes into the 30's buy...

I would think it would be a long term investment. While it will definitely go back up it may stay low for a long period.

Merry Christmas everyone !!!

34 with now all snow in wantagh. I was not expecting this

Rain snow mix in wantagh, surprisingly mostly snow

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our longest “the big  snowstorm is just a week away pattern” in a while. It all started with the suppressed smowstorm back on the 11th.

Euro 12z Nov 30 run

The last time that continued for a longer stretch it lasted for the entire winter. 11/12. That would be an epic bust for long range forecasting. It’s not entirely out of the range of possibility. We have seen patterns lock. What we do not need is the pattern we do want finally coming back In March again. 

6 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It wasn't that hard down my way; the greenery is parsely. The sage finally gave out. 

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm at 1200'. Current temp is 33°

Nice, 1200’ should be fine. Really anything over 1000’ for more then a slushy coating.

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Latest NWS forecast for my area upped accumulation to 1-3" for tonight. 

What’s your elevation? I would want to be as high as possible to overcome the marginal temps and warm ground. Looks like a Mt. Pocono special 

On 12/21/2018 at 8:16 AM, LibertyBell said:

It's basically cutting out 1/3 of winter.  So we have January and February left and they'd better be great lol.  We've had some snowy Marches lately, but I dont think NYC has seen a 12+ March snowstorm since the 60s.  I know we haven't here in western Nassau County.  December however has seen two 12+ snowstorms, including the 20" Boxing Day Blizzard.  It's prime snowstorm month, much moreso than March is, so wiping out December hurts.

 

I had 14” in wantagh with the 3rd March storm, and I’m south central Nassau. So you were with very close or made it. 

This weather is killing me. The November storm happened during my regular shift so no snowvertime. My management uses it as carpet that they dangle in front of me. “You guys do so well with snow”. Obviously it’s not something to be relied upon at 40 north. Eventually the dreaded snowless winter will come. I just hope it’s in the 60s when I’m retired. 

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Overall the winters are warmer and shorter than they were years ago. I still have greenery in parts of my garden; there has been no lasting hard frost, and I have earthworms coming out in rainstorms. While there has been a little more snow if you average it out, in no way could we call the last few winters overly long. Now, cool wet Aprils that can feel like winter is hanging on, if that is what you mean, I grant you that. 

No lasting hard frost? Did you forget the mid teens in November? That killed any and all perrenials. If you have greenery it’s either new growth or something much hardier. 

20 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Now I feel incredibly old, as I was a freshman in college the year you were born...

Haha me too!!! I wouldn’t say we are old though, at least I do not feel old.

the precip shield on radar is epic. As far as coverage this has to be one of the wettest storms of all time for the east coast

I’m really bummed about this Friday. I haven’t been up to Vermont in 2 weeks and I’m planning on staying Friday night through Monday. I think the pack can survive but the real question is does it soak up a ton of water and then freeze up. That’s the ultimate disaster like we saw last presidents weekend.

If we are going to have a major apps runner let’s go all out. The tropical moisture plume is about a legit as you can get. The radar should lit up like a Christmas tree Friday morning. It’s been a while since we have had HWW Se winds. Probably since Sandy and those were more of a ESE.

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

Meaningless? Many major storms have come as signals at this lead time. 

9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I like the >1.8" PWATs.

Snow pack destroyer for the mountains. Right in time for Christmas week...

I’m in Washington heights right now and there is a good ammount of snow now mixed in

24 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

February 2018 for example.

That was about as thread the needle event as you can get. Yes the current weather is terrible but we have seen worse and still had an epic winter. December 2014 wasn’t exactly stellar and we know how that winter worked out...

There was a storm in the 20s that 4” fall as frozen I believe mostly as sleet. Talk about the ultimate sleet storm!