LongBeachSurfFreak

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's amazing how proficiently the post-modern era of Internet western society is at exposing an underlying lapse in the critical thinking ability of the general population.  It's always been this way that lay-folks tend to believe ... but having the hoi-polloi have access to information does provide for an explosion of colorful renditions of reality ... which then go on to become ethotic, whether true or not.

Gee - wonder why 'fake news' ever found a target.

Excellent post. I was just pondering this. 

We have been through this so many times. The only thing anyone should be focusing on at these lead times is, the signal is there consistently and across guidance 

14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks man I am reassessing and applying to a lot of jobs that fit very well with my experience.  I have options for now but not confident folks will hire someone my age.

I would try as hard as possible to not focus on the age thing. Make your look and attitude as young as possible. Act energetic and ambitious. I too have been dealing with a pile of sht. Got my hours cut for the winter after saving my employers butt during the fall. Then 2 days later broke my collar bone. Your a smart guy and will be fine. Just remember it’s not your fault. 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This added a good shot of QPF to the mountain... despite some great fluff during the second half, the high winds packed it a bit.  I bet the mountain added a good 1.75-2.0" of liquid equivalent to the snowpack.

As of Tuesday before the storm I had 26" and 6.5" of water at the 1,500ft elevation.  Be interesting to see the total liquid in the pack during the next survey.  

That's a healthy refresher to finally get us off that ice crust from the cutters during the holidays.

 That ice is the real problem, it’s like hitting cement. Happy that the mountains are back in good condition even if I’m not partaking for a while. The entire spine did well with this event. 

It this range the fact that we have something to track is a good sign. Anyone jumping to conclusions one way or another is out to lunch. 

The is how the 2010s work. Feast or famine. I hope everyone’s hungry

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Eh, colder than before yes. Highs in the low to mid-30s are rather typical for mid-January. I can't remember a snowless stretch this long before. Its been 2 months since weve seen measurable snowfall. Other than the cold wind which arrived today, its felt like spring

It could be worse, you could be in Worcester mass. They avarege triple what we do and have been skunked since November too.  

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I do not see cold & dry at all. Pattern looks very active, we may see several gradient type events. 

Very cold air nearby. I think a heavy snowfall event or two is highly likely before the month ends. It'll get even better in Feb. 

I agree plenty of cold air and there will be moisture. The question at this range is where does the gradient set up. If we can move what Maine has been seeing down to our latitude we are in the goods. Obviously in a gradient pattern you want to be on the edge. Too far north and it’s fridged and sunny, south and it’s rain and mild. 

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the 1919-20 winter was one of greatest winters of the 1900's...I think it was a neutral year but I can't check that...JMA has it neutral...

December 1919:::Temperature hit 60 on the 13th-14th...cold wave drops the temps to -1 on the 18th...2" of cold snow on the 17th...3" of snow on the 24th-25th...2" of snow on the 30th...

Jan:::5 degrees on 1/5...2" of snow 1/16...3" of snow 1/19...2" of snow 1/22...very cold period...freezing rain and sleet 23rd-24th...7 degrees on 1/26...-1 on 1/31...top ten coldest Jan...

Feb:::-2 on 2/1...on 2/4th-7th NYC saw snow freezing rain sleet and even some plain rain for 75 hours...two hours reported nothing...strong winds and glaze...17.5" of snow and ice fell...13" snow depth at the end...4.43" of LE...2" snow and sleet on the 10th...2/16...9 degrees...5" snow depth...4" of snow 2/21-22...6 degrees 2/27...

March:::storm 3/5th-6th...rain to sleet to snow...2.15" LE...3" snow...13 degrees 3/6th-7th...similar storm on 3/13...last inch of snow on 3/19...

a 1920 storm...

 

Wow, that’s more like an incredible winter. Below zero in 3 seperate months! Snow cover days must be near the top as well. 

The February storm was most likely a coastal hugger so I would assume inland there were probably totals over 3’.  

Welcome back 1985. I’ll take another Gloria

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

1913 was an el nino year and was one of the wettest years on record...the winter did not get going until Feb. 8th...the 1913-14 winter...

the first hint of winter came on November 11th with a few snow flurries and below freezing temps...December was on the warm side with a dusting of snow on the 10th...there was a rainy Christmas Holiday...mild and wet before and after the 25th...January 4th had a noreaster with gale winds nd mixed precipitation...coastal damage from the storm...the first cold wave came on January 13th...it got as low as -5 the morning of the 14th...gale winds ushered in the cold...thawing after the cold shot with a dusting of snow...no more snow after that...brief cold shots came between mild and wet days...the benign pattern continued until Feb 7th...after a long series of rain storms it got a lot colder Feb. 8th with a little light snow on Feb 10th...after the light snow another severe cold wave hit...the temperature registered -3 on Feb. 12th...the morning of the 13th was -1...snow and sleet developed late in the day...temperature was 26 by midnight...the snow and sleet got heavy on the 14th...snow and sleet accumulated almost 10"...the temperature maxed out at 34 before dropping back below freezing...8" was on the ground on the 15th...temperature dropped to 12...more snow on the 16th...another 5"...that brought the snow depth to 13"...max temperatures were below freezing the next ten of eleven days...light snow on the 19th...snow depth was 8"...light snow on the 23rd...7" snow depth...the third cold wave of the season came after that...temperatures were as low as one degree on the 25th...the next three days had some thawing with temperatures topping out in the 40's...March 1st 2014 was 38 degrees when the day started just after midnight...rain developed early am hours and became heavy...sleet mixed in as temperatures dropped below freezing...heavy sleet and snow fell all day and into the night when it let up to lighter snow and sleet...the storm ended the next day and when all was said and done the temperature dropped to 17 and there was 13" of snow on the ground again...gale winds accompanied the storm and NYC set a record for the lowest pressure ever recorded...it stayed wintry until March 26th when the first 65 degree day came...March 6th had another 3" of snow...snow depth was 6"...mild mid month but colder and snowier from the 18th-24th...3.5" of snow fell on March 22nd...last measurable snowfall of the season...that brought the season total just over 40"...1913-14 was a slow starting winter that got over 35" from 2/10 to 3/7...two severe arctic outbreaks...two heavy snow and sleet storms...twice the snow depth exceeded 13"..

date...….max...min...precip...snowfall...depth

11/11......39......30......trace......trace...big lake effect snows and gales...flurry in the city...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1913-11-12/ed-1/seq-1/

 

12/10......42......28......0.03"......0.3"....snow showers...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1913-12-11/ed-1/seq-15/

 

12/23......47......35......1.61"......heavy rains...mild...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1913-12-24/ed-1/seq-13/

 

12/25......44......35......0.43"...…rainy Christmas...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1913-12-26/ed-1/seq-5/

 

01/04......38......38......0.98"......0.1"

01/05......36......23......0.17"......1.1"...big storm with coastal damage...mostly mixed precipitation...temps mostly in the mid 30's...1.2" of snow/sleet...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-01-05/ed-1/seq-1/

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55515916/

 

01/13...…..9......-3...…0

01/14......18...…-5...…0

01/15......33......18......0.01"......0.1".....cold wave with gales...then thawing...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-01-14/ed-1/seq-1/

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55521138/

 

01/24......50......40......1.07"

01/25......46......17......0.40".....more rain then turning colder briefly...

 

01/28......58......39......trace....,.mild and damp...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-01-29/ed-1/seq-13/

 

01/30......58......42......trace

01/31......55......33......1.51"...more heavy rain and mild...

 

02/10......37......21......0.05"......0.5"...….trace

02/11......21...…..2......trace......trace.....trace...earthquake then cold wave...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-02-11/ed-1/seq-1/

 

02/12......10...….-3...…………………..trace

02/13......26.......-1......0.29"......1.6"......2"

02/14......34......17......1.59"......8.1"......8"

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030193/1914-02-12/ed-1/seq-1/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030193/1914-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-2/

 

02/16......23......12......0.34"......5.2"......12"

02/17......24......13......0.01"......0.1"......11"

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030193/1914-02-16/ed-1/seq-1/

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53165669/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-02-17/ed-1/seq-1/

 

02/23......25........8......0.07"......1.0"...…..7"

02/24......15...….2......0.01"......0.1"...…..7"...light snow and a cold wave...heavier snow to the south...

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53165905/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-02-25/ed-1/seq-15/

 

03/01......38......22......2.95"....13.5"...….13"

03/02......26......17......0.16"......1.0"...….13"

http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-3/

http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-4/

http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-3/

http://fultonhistory...cale - 1989.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 1990.pdf

 

03/06......37......30......0.29"......2.9"......6"

03/07......42......31......0.04"......0.4"......5"....some more snow but with some melting...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1914-03-07/ed-1/seq-4/

 

03/18......44......33......0.44"......0.2"......rain ending as snow...more snow in the forecast...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-03-19/ed-1/seq-13/

 

03/22......34......25......0.20"......3.5"......2"...last snowfall of the winter...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-03-23/ed-1/seq-4/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1914-03-23/ed-1/seq-11/

13.5” on 2.95” liquid is insane. Must have been a ton of sleet. That would have been a nightmare to clear. Good analog, though I doubt we see anything close to that magnitude of cold.

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not calling it, we can still have a good 2nd half, but it will take some big #'s to get snowfall into the great range (let's say 40 inches or better) 

Ok, that’s reasonable. Trust me no one is more frustrated then me right now. Snow for me is big big money. I don’t think this winter will be a clunker. The 6” November storm was already better then 01/02 11/12. We have a light snow event on the way this weekend. I think feb produces the goods. But yes an A+ is out of the question 

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Still alot of winter to go

Calling winter in the beginning of January is a joke... 

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Euro didn't trend north.  There is more overrunning on this run.

Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios

This has always been an overunning event for us. The main precip Sheild will miss well to the south. Should at least gives us a wintery feel.

2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Looks pretty elevation dependent again(guess not that surprising with this system), doesn't look like a whole lot in the middle of Manchester at 715ft.

 

 

Definitely more "sticky" at my place higher around 1100ft.  Had my wife measure and she said 4" new a couple hours ago. 

 

 

 

 

What an incredibly elevation dependent winter so far. Still sitting on that 6-12” of ice from November at 1400’ on the east side. Meanwhile there has been almost nothing down in the valley. 

Banding so far in this event seems focused just to the south towards the Taconics and Berkshires. I have noticed this occur in the past. Things should fill in later.

Any new model is a good model. High resolution is great for convection in summer and banding in winter.

I have been laying low since I have a broken collar bone from ice boarding but I think we are solid for a light snow event. There is nothing screaming big storm but we have seen allot more moisture in past storms then modeled. I like a general 2-3” across the area. Anything is better then nothing at this point. 

Sleet currently with a slight coating. It will be gone before anyone wakes up, but it happened.

Had a 1.5” had the house at 1400’. 

Well an inch of fresh snow over glare ice is a nightmare. Took the worst fall I have ever had by far and smashed my right side. Snapped my collar bone in half. Luckily it wasn’t worse but I’m out for 6-8 weeks...

No mention of feb 5/6 2010?

that was a mind boggling bad luck storm for us. Has to be the number one dissipointment of all time 

8 hours ago, Jason215 said:

I can’t diss on Stratton. That was my first big resort I ever skied. I also skied there on the March 1993 superstorm. I couldn’t believe they ran the Gondi all day until about 4pm without any wind holds. It was nuts, could barely see the trials. Drove to the Red Sled Motel in whiteout conditions- it was scary. 

Have to agree with you on Okemo, great mountain and I prefer that over Stratton.  

Speaking of Magic- hit that last March after the 4 NorEaster’s. They got about 80” within roughly 2 weeks. It was awesome. Lift lines were 20-25 minutes per run since the black chair was having issues and not operating- but there were zero complaints- the snow was that good.

Plattekill Mountain in the Catskills is similar to Magic, though smaller. On the plus side, the longest line I’ve ever seen there was 5 minutes. Usually it’s between 0 and 2 minutes, LOL.

Jason

Magic has Stratton’s old snow bowl lift now which should help allot.

i don’t get his constant dissing on Stratton. If your coming from down south it’s the first decent mountain. And I would rather the high end feel then a bunch of riff raff. There are plenty of hard core snow boarders still here as it used to be the epicenter of snow boarding and where jake burton took snow boarding main stream. Obviously it has nothing on further north but that’s not feasible for me.

today has some super fun soft spring conditions and again I have the place to myself. If you have all gortex it’s fine.

12 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

33° F and rain at 2,230' elevation from a coastal in early January. Has this ever happened before? Maybe someone can go check the scrolls...

Sure, it's rained plenty of times here in January from cutters, but it's *HOW* we're getting this rain that's disturbing. What a disaster!!!

Completely dumbfounded...  

It’s raining and 35 at the top of Stratton. I had 33 and rain at the house too. But I did see cars covered in ice in the lot. So it’s below freezing somewhere. This is awful

Any thoughts on tomorrow’s event up high? I’m hoping to stay frozen above 2k. Mid level issues in southern Vermont?

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

last year NYC got almost 10" of snow on this date...big snow on this date in 1859...another big snow in 1905...

1859...16" of snow... 

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1859-01-05/ed-1/seq-8/

1905 snowstorm... 

http://chroniclingam...-04/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-04/ed-1/seq-2/

 

http://chroniclingam...-05/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-05/ed-1/seq-2/

If last years storm hadn’t been a rocket it would have been one of the greats. At its peak I had full on whiteout on campus with the 4”/hr rates and 50mph gusts blasting snow between the tall buildings. That only lasted for about 2 hours.

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

1.9" here. Nearest cocorahs to me also had 2.0" at 1800ft east of the spine..so not really elevation or east slope dependent it seems.    Woodford only had 2.5".   The good stuff was further north and east it seems as per PFs 3am radar gif....lol

 

Haven't checked any local ski areas--but wouldn't think any place had much more than 3-4"

Stratton and mt snow with 3” as of the early morning reports. Not terrible and any little bit helps.

Real nice southern Vermont band is probably producing good rates in its core. Going to be a very localized event with not much north and south.