LongBeachSurfFreak

One thing that wasn’t blown was the marine forecast. Some of the largest and most powerful waves I have have surfed in Long Beach. Just monster walls of water imploding with a sound like thunder. Waves should increase even further into tomorrow morning. The huge east fetch is really working it’s magic. 

Not the bust we needed here on the island. Only .38” yesterday. The drought continues

Up to .54” of much needed rain on the uws. It isn’t much under normal circumstances but we desperately needed it.

Finally the long duration soaking rain we desperately needed! The prolonged nature of the rain will allow the ground to slowly moisten and begin absorbing the rain. You do not want Short duration heavy convective rain when the Ground is dried to a hard shell as it just runs off.

Winds are pretty meh so far on the island. I was surfing earlier and the waves are increasing. There should be some good erosion at prone locations. Long Beach is going to loose a ton of the dredged sand.

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

one of these years it's going to happen

Not going to be a good time for me, or anyone in the horticulture industry. When it does happen it’s going to have serious consequences for area Forrest’s too. 

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

reminds me of the early January 2018 storm only its rain this time...

It’s a good thing it’s not winter. This one would be tuff to watch. CC gets 3’ and the city has blowing pixie dust

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh my bad, I thought you meant wave heights.  How surfable were the waters around here during the Dec 1992 noreaster?

 

I was way too young but from the story’s I have been told it was the storm of all time. I know a guy that surfed rockaway and said it was 20’ clean and ridable. He got injured after washing over a jetty. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

There might be some good surf on the Jersey coast with this!

 

Winds will be onshore in NJ, resulting in sloppy unsurfable waves. Offshore on li

16 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

The seas are dreadful with 10-15 foot rollers being forecast and gale force east winds. Can't remember such a run of bad conditions this time of year. 

It’s all about your perception: I think this fall has been incredible so far. Hurricane swell after hurricane swell. Followed by a solid nor’easter. A surfers dream. This one will not work out for New Jersey but there are spots on Long Island that will have world class waves this week. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I agree- thats what it takes for power outages around here.

I think this storm over preforms wind wise. These October pressure gradient driven storms tend to do so. I think it has to do with the more convective nature of storm being able to mix down higher winds. October 1996 comes to mind, we had 70+.gusts and tree damage with that one.  

I could see some areas also over preforming precip wise as well. There will likely be bands of of heavy rain that sit and dump. Where they setup and how far west they make it, is the big unknown at this point 

Going with a full Icon this year. Based at Stratton as that’s where my house share is. My friends in the house are all on the ski patrol so they aren’t leaving Stratton ever. The good thing for me this winter is I’ll be able to get out and explore. Planning on doing killington a bunch and a late season sugarloaf expedition. That mountain is big on my list of places to ride. I’m also doing my first out west trip to aspen for spring fling in April. 

Heres to hoping we have an ice free winter!!!

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Even that NAM has about 1.5" of rain here.

1-2" of rain with 50 mph winds would be quite the storm!

 

We haven’t had anything like that with trees in full leaf in a while. There aren’t nearly as many trees as pre Sandy/Irene on the island but I would still expect some tree damage and power outages. That’s if we get gusts to 60+. 60 seems to be the threshold.  

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The heaviest could easily end up 100 miles in either direction and will probably bounce all over the place between now and thursday

Exactly. It’s the same thing every year. Model hugging. We need the rain desperately on the island. 

Another major precip fail last night and today. 0.0” in wantagh. 

Finally some solid rain. If we get the coastal storm far enough Nw we end the flash drought as fast as it started. 

I think there are going to be some pretty serious coastal impacts with this storm. It’s been many years since we had a storm that produced large battering waves over many high tide cycles. Historically some similar events caused damage on par with hurricanes. The key with this setup is the fetch area. With the pressure gradient between the blocking high and coastal storm creating an anomalously long fetch aimed at the MA/NE. 

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a little bit like the big halloween storm back in the 90's.   (smaller version but similar set up where the storm stalled for days and brought high surf, wind etc but not much rain)

The biggest impact from this storm will be erosion. We made it through last winter without even a moderate nor’easter. So area beaches will loose allot of sand that has built up. This will be in addition to some minor erosion that occurred with the last few hurricane swells. 

I was driving on the southern state earlier today from out east and the drought is pretty severe in western Suffolk. Allot of trees that have turned brown which is generally a sign they are dead. The ones that have turned colors are just stressed. It wasn’t confined to just oaks which have their own problems but a number of species. Once to the Nassau border things greened up a bit. 

Amazing, cannot buy a drop of rain on the uws. Everything misses in every way possible.

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

88 here. Can’t wait to hear from those who said we would never hit 90 in October lmao

High temp records are a joke. The park is dry as a bone. Let’s do this.

This is exactly why I never call a storm a fish. I was out surfing the Lorenzo swell today and it was incredibly powerful. 16 second swell periods are extremely rare on the east coast. 

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-search-missing-teens-rockaway-20191001-4zqaogxpdzhullj3n72tqq4mky-story.html

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again.

That’s a thing of my happiest dreams. I’m fully completely sick of hoses and watering. 10 hours a day, day after day.

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm sure we'll end this flash drought with some massive deluge.

That would be amazing. We just do not need it all in a few hours as the ground will just run must of off. We need a long protracted synoptic rain event 

The drought continues to intensify with another precip fail yesterday. We need a full scale pattern change or things could start to get serious. 

If your starting to see color change on trees it’s likely due to drought stress 

Absolutely epic in every regard. Another storm that shows how far we have to go with intensity forecasts.

Due to the fact that Lorenzo was moving north at the time of peak intensity it will send anomalously long period swell to the east coast. These long period swells (greater then 16 seconds) contain tremendous energy and are capable of producing beach wash overs. (And fun waves for those in the know)

another day another precip fail

14 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Now the interesting thing to watch is how strong it stays and where it exactly it ends up.  The 12z Euro shows it slamming into England...

Could be like the great gale of 1988 for them. That caused prolific damage.