LongBeachSurfFreak

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I try to keep this stuff in banter.   it's a pseudo rage thread when things go to hell.    Hoping for a better turn events soon.

I think we get our revenge in February. Allot of sold guys going all in. I’ll run with that

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I assume it did not get that cold.

Agreed. The big arctic events In the city that set their record lows were big CAA events so it was likely similarly cold even at west Hampton 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

didn't say it was over.   Said that up until now, these things (or the lack of cooperation from them) has prevented a snowstorm (Even a light one) since met winter started. We could turn on a dime and have 60 inches in Feb-who knows-but you'll need to see some changes in the PAC and MJO for sure or its likely more of the same.   (and this is banter so it's ok to rage a bit here chief....)

Well it’s keeping good posters away. I like this Board allot so it irks me. No way NYC makes it to 2/1 without an inch. We do that tonight.

it wasn’t a personal attack persay. And I too was venting 

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

an unmitigated disaster.  No help from the PAC, AO/NAO and MJO has been mostly in 4-5....big bag of fail.   The cold we've gotten has been accompanied by dry weather....   Quite possible NYC gets to 2/1 with less than an inch of snow for met winter....hope we don't end up with a delayed spring-that's the worst a snowless winter followed by a -NAO in April...LOLz

Complete and utter Bs. This is exactly why I have been staying away from this board recently. 

Waaaaa waaaaaa winters over. Get real

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

I have 2" salt drifts either side of my street.

It’s disgusting in the city currently. Salt dust everywhere. 

With the type of precip rates and the flash freeze after all the salt in the world will not matter

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're a lot closer to CNE climate than NJ. I average only slightly less snow than CON and PWM.

He got blasted In the NYC forum for making completely contradictory statements in the course of one day yesterday. Trolltastic!

Are we in for 45 straight days of cold and snow? Of course not. Anyone thinking that was setting themselves up for failure.

Very interesting radiational cooling last night.

KFOK 10 with many hours in the low teens 

lGA  31

FRG 21 in between the two

Even EWR made it down to 24

Perfect example of why you do not talk specifics 120 hours out (earlier today). 

The low track earlier did not make sense. 

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Granted, that is true, but in the post I saw they mentioned their reasoning, no blocking and no cold air damming, things I see people around here say are pretty necessary. Are you saying that these factors can change? Can blocking develop by then? I am not a student of meteorology, so I am trusting those who know these things. I was under the impression, from reading here, that we are missing key elements.

For this one to go right for the coast we need the entire low to be several hundred miles further south. Unlikely but not impossible. Several ways to get there. 

Just now, Rjay said:

November of this year.

I'm not a NWS basher as I believe they do a great job overall but they miss things sometimes 

Yeah the November one was pretty bad as well. Granted this situation is off the charts. Very few if any analogs. 

Just now, Rjay said:

That would be silly.  

They have blown major forecasts within 24 hours multiple times over the past few years. Jan 15 and March 17 two great examples. This is 5, five, FIVE!!! Days away

56 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Yo have the best models being consistent each run combined with no blocking. Just not the right setup and climo for a coastal snowstorms. I'm not throwing the towel until I see the NAM though. It has surprised us a few times in the past.

Agreed this most likely will not be a coast all snow event for the exact reasons you stated. But we have seen things fall apart and or come together within 48 hours let alone 120. There is no way anyone can say they know exactly what’s going to happen at this point. Friday if the models show the 850 low or Montreal then it’s time to throw in the towel.

Just now, bluewave said:

This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above.

For sure a significant ice storm from the city north west is on the table. Power outages with the cold coming behind will not be fun for anyone. 

I’m waiting to see where we are after things get sampled on Thursday before making any conclusions. It’s going to come down the the strength of the low and the amount of phasing with the tpv. A weaker less phased and faster solution is what we want. Something in the middle is the danger zone for ice 

Just now, cyclone31 said:

So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday

Exactly, it’s sad. If your response is a direct conclusion with only one run of one model to back it up just do not bother posting. 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I don't think you have to worry much about snow or ice down in Toms River. Even the snowiest models give coastal NJ all rain.

I think everyone starts as snow, and coastal nj changes to rain an washes away most of what falls. This is def an inland setup even in the colder scenarios. What could be the big issue for the coast and city is a flash freeze on the back end. 

Obviously this is extremely speculative right now 

What I’m confused about is why are you guys acting like this weekends event already happened? 120 hours out? With a complex setup and a storm that is still over the open pacific?

If this weekends event ends up a Rainer in NYC I’ll be heading up to Vermont just to enjoy the storm as I’m obviously still on the disabaled list. Could be an excellent storm chase for me.

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even the front end snow dump would end up more than the 18Z GFS shows verbatim if you got that exact track.  We see this with any system where we go snow to rain that it’s not usually til 84-96 that we start seeing the magnitude of the snow portion.  The November storm was the same thing 

Exactly, an eternity still to go. 

Lets see if this winters south trend is a factor in this one as well.

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

How does it look for the coastal plain of Cape Cod?

The mountains of cape cod should do well in this one. The lower elevations will have mostly rain.

9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I made a bad mistake

It’s all good. It happens. Plenty of opportunities coming up.

The 2010s do not disappoint. Feast or famine to the max

All I have to say is locked and loaded right now. Do not pay attention to individual model runs at this lead time. The signal is there and exactly where we want it.

8 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

Maybe saw one flake here in Jericho on LI

Interesting, despite decent returns on the radar it seems like any accumulations are west of here

Have a slight dusting in wantagh, anyone else on the island or nyc area have anything?

15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Not sure I'd be comfortable assuming column saturation at 30/11F, but that's why they don't pay me the big bucks.

Haha, yeah it’s going to be tuff. Not to mention rates look super light. Flurries for hours will not amount to much