LongBeachSurfFreak

38 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

This year is going to be the snowiest winter in at least 5 years in my opinion. I’m going to guess that Central Park gets 50 inches

Based on?

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year. 

Yeah, allot went wrong last winter. That’s why I think we at least make it to average this winter with one or two snowy periods. The big wild card is another blockbuster  

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 

2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it. 

I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. 
The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

How did the D10 work out last year? And according to you this year the FV3 is even worse than last?

A million things will change a million times. The pattern is conducive. That’s all we know now.

33 with heavy frost in wantagh this morning 

thinking inland and elevated for this weeks first snow. 

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is following our warm October to cold November pattern  that has been so persistent since 2013. Even with all the record warmth in the East during October, the CONUS had  its 6th coldest October since 1949. Several stations out West had their coldest October on record. The cold and -EPO blocking is finally shifting east for November like we have seen in recent years.

 

Stuck and extreme patterns are out future. Hopefully we have a stuck pattern this winter that’s conducive for snow 

First frost in wantagh this morning. Moving to Malvern  this weekend. So I’ll be in a new location for obs

Ripping pretty good in wantagh now. Low clouds are absolutely racing overhead 

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Getting some good gusts.  JFK gusting to 43mph last hour

39.4 at the wantagh meso. Decent but still pretty meh after the event earlier this month. Let’s see if my theory of the winds dropping under the heaviest rain verifies. If it does strongest winds will be right ahead of the line

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

gut feeling that the winds will deliver tonight with this system....todays gust have been impressive and we're nowhere near the front

Agreed, this thing looks nasty on radar. Even 50mph gusts out of the south will do damage. We haven’t had a south wind event with those kind of wind speeds in ages 

3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Big buildings and it’s elevation will do that just like mountains rip out hurricanes! Maybe

While I fully agree as it happens time and time again, I think that’s more of a summer thing has to do with the urban heat island.

suns out on the uws

Just now, bluewave said:

Winds beginning to pick up now with 35 mph gusts at JFK.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   66  66 100 S25G35  

I think we will see a 50+ at jfk later. Great setup for the south shore to see strong winds 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is wipeout city. But luckily the pattern looks pretty good for snow making coming up. They'll be blowing a ton of snow in the next two weeks. 

Yup! Perfect timing for this first cold shot. It’s not last November but it’s something 

Today cannot be good for early season snow making. Anything made already is getting rocked. About as good of a melt scenario as you can get!

16 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening!

The problem is, it has become a political football. 

Just buried in leaves here in wantagh. Several days without wind and an incoming wind storm will do that. Oaks aren’t there yet but maples are at peak here. If we get heavy rain later there’s going to be street flooding from clogged drains

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy. 

I was in the east end (Neptune ave) at the time and do not remember more then a coating on cars and grass. Interesting, with such extreme snow patterns in that one I wonder if being west of Long Beach road and with less bay between you and Lb island meant more snow 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Dewpoints may approach near record high levels in spots for so late in the season with the Halloween storm. The highest dewpoint that I could find at JFK for November is 65 degrees. The Euro gets close to this early on the 1st. A tropical air mass could also be more convective. So we have to monitor later runs for convection strong enough to mix down the extremely strong LLJ in the heaviest downpours. 
 

It seems that the strongest winds are always pre squall line in these events.

one notable exception being some time in the 90s I remember an extremely strong fall squall line that brought damaging wind gusts in wantagh. I vividly remember the whole sky being filled with blowing leaves. This wasn’t the November southerly wind storm that brought 70mph gusts. Well see 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

About the same here in Nassau County.  We needed the storm to be a bit further east.

 

Nothing at all in wantagh, car coverer in Long Beach. Interesting snow patterns with that one. Nothing on the north shore hills near the warm sound but a strip of 2” around the LIE

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

chop those by 20-25%  Euro is often over-done on winds

Yeah I would think 35-45mph. Which is plenty strong to knock down a ton of leaves. Mix that with heavy rain and it’s a street flooding situation

Pretty cool ride into the city seeing the tallest towers in Long Island city in the clouds. Ceiling is super low at somewhere around 700’. This is something you used to just see in Manhattan.

The pattern of extremes continues. Amazing how fast we flipped that mini drought. I have a feeling this corresponds to this winter with feast  or famine periods. Lots of winter is over calls or it’s never going to snow expected.-

19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think there is a decent chance we will be under Flood Watches and Wind Advisories for Thursday/Friday. Especially with the recent heavier rains we have had.

Winds will bring down allot of leaves around the coast as we are heading into peak color. So FFW are likely.

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Right @powderfreak you cant get much closer to the western slopes than where I am now.  DDH is a mile or two away I think. 

 

That’s an incredible micro climate spot. I drive past you almost ever weekend over the winter. I always look forward to the climb to see snow differences with elevation!

43 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

This is what happens when people who aren't educated in weather write about weather. Confusing coastal flood advisories with flash flood products. We aren't getting heavy rain tomorrow.

Sent from my Samsung Note 8
 

Unreal, it’s not the first time and it will not be the last.

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Delayed but not denied though as the -EPO pattern finally delivers cooler conditions post Halloween. 

First real widespread freeze threat possible this weekend. 

We shall see. A period of colder weather yes. But the -PNA and SE ridge pattern has been so damn consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cold scaled back. Plus cold/snow in November has really proven to be a bad thing for the winter.