LongBeachSurfFreak

22 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's melting. Patches of snow and ice on the sunlit south-facing stretch of the driveway are becoming liquid water. Thanks for telling me I can't tell when ice is melting, though.

Yesh, didn’t mean to go there at all. And I didn’t mean to say it isn’t melting at all. Snow can melt in the sun even if it’s -50, happens everyday in places like the Himalayas 

I’m heading west on the LiRR right now having started in wantagh snow amounts increase around the queens line. 

Similar to a summer thunderstorm event the ocean acted to weaken the connective line!

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

like last year winter will say hello when it's time to say goodbye...this year when the ao went negative we got extreme cold...Last year when the ao went negative we got big snows...lets hope that changes this month...I'm still waiting for the big one and I think it will come this year...TWT...

Nice to see some positivity. I agree, while it may not be a blockbuster KU I think we get at least one solid warning event sometime between 2/15-3/15

28 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's 8F and snow on my untreated driveway is melting. Sun angle season is upon us. 

I wouldn’t say melting as much as sublimating. It’s extrenly high ratio stuff and it doesn’t take much to make it go away

5 hours ago, shadowsintherain said:

Petering out now. Was a bit fun. I just thought the use of the word whiteout may have been a bit dramatic. Wind swept moderate snow for about 10 minutes. Now flurries here in Copiague. ‘‘Twas fun, and all we are going to get for a while. But whiteout? Definitely not.



.

I can tell by how much less snow you have then I had on the uws that it was a different event there. We did have true whiteout conditions for a few min. I actually had to plow drifts between buildings. 

I could see the smoke and a red glow from the UWS. The fire must be absolutely massive. There should be some great ice from the hoses. 

I was wondering what that weird radar return was over northern NJ, it’s a huge fire at a paper plant in elm wood 

33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Curious to see what we bottom out at.

I think the city has a shot at low single digits. Even that little bit of of snow helps. And 50 miles NW of the city it’s full on glacier. 

Do you guys realize it’s January and your talking about this winter in the past tense? I get it, I’m more frustrated as anyone as you guys who are regulars know. But we still have more then half of our snow climo left. 

I will agree on one thing, if we do not see a turn around and we end up below average snow it will be damaging to long range forecasters. 

I just do not see how it’s even possible we make it through the rest of the winter without at least one advisory level event. Even 97/98 managed to pull it off and that was light years more hostile for snow then this winter 

White rain on the uws 

44 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I would say so.

About 2" down with some nice snow growth.

Looks like you may be the jackpot area for this one. I’m heading up Friday finally. Excited to see some fresh snow and get out of the land of brown

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A weak nina would be ok....moderate or strong and we'll be in trouble unless we get something freaky like '10-11

We have seen this winter act like a Niña thus far. So unless it’s a strong Niña I tend to agree anything is possible. 

6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It was a good run for the coast.  2 months of 10"+ @ KMGJ is a nice winter.

2011, 2014, and 2015 were good snow cover winters here.  I'll run those stats when I get a chance.

This winter, we wait for the MJO to find it's MoJO

At least there is some positive news on that front today. Still plenty of prime snow season left. The island especially does well late season when near shore water temps are cold. Which they will be after this next cold blast.

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I know you know this stuff way better than I do, but I'm thinking the same way.  When I look at the 12Z Euro on weather.us, the 850 mbar temps are below -1C for the entire event for all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (NJ coast just touches 0C in the late afternoon) and are below -2C from 6 pm onward when 90% of the precip falls for these locations - however, surface temps are mid/upper 30s at 6 pm, so I could see rain for a few hours, but they drop to 33-34F for most by 8 pm when about half of the total of 0.3-0.4" QPF has fallen, leaving 0.15-0.20" of QPF to likely fall as snow (don't think it'll melt before hitting the ground and might not be rain except even earlier - although accumulating on 34-36F surfaces early on will be tough, except it will be at night), while the Euro only shows about 1/2" of snow for most of that area.  I'm thinking more like 1-2" and maybe even 2-3" under these conditions.  

It’s been plenty cold so surfaces that tend to retain cold shouldn’t have a problem accumulating. 

21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I still think we reach average snowfall (I'll admit though I have crow cooking in the oven now). I always thought this winter would feature normal to just above normal temperatures (looks like that is still the case). I'm just playing devil's advocate and pointing out that JB always claims wall to wall cold and snow in a season forecast. But sorry to say, that forecast for winter is already 2/3rds wrong. December was warm and not snowy, and January was average and not snowy. That is one thing that drives me nuts is when someone predicts above average snowfall for meteorological winter with below average temperatures, then when we end up having much above normal temperatures but one massive storm got us above average,  that person goes "see" I was right". To me that is just dumb luck, which in the 2010s has turned out right more times than not since we have been getting blockbuster storms. I think the MTA in NYC has had more suspended days in the 2010s than any other decade for snow. 

 

Edit: Wrong quote.

I agree on the average snowfall. All it takes is one good storm from mid feb to mid March. The call for sustained snow cover on the coast will fail as it’s very hard to maintain snow cover from mid feb on. Funny thing is we may end up with at least some snow cover during this upcoming cold period from two chances. One being the storm tomorrow night and another from convective snow showers Wednesday 

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma

How about you wait until it actually happens??? Right now neither of you are right or wrong. Claiming victory a week before something happens, especially in weather and more so in a volatile winter is ridiculous... 

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Solid F for the grade here so far. 2.5 days of cover doesn’t cut it. The rain and annoying cold/wind in between just gives me a dull headache. End this season now. 

I would agree, it’s an F for the corridor from NYC to BOS. Wasted cold and DCA having a decent winter adding to the misery. I have a feeling we do see a good 2 week blitz around mid month but that maybe gets us to a C

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Speaking of March 1888, because there's really nothing snow wise to talk about this winter, in addition to the blizzard, the average temperature in NYC for March 1888 was 29.9°, I still find that as amazing as the blizzard.  That was about 0.3° above the January average at the time. Now it would be almost 3 degrees above the current January 30 year average. It still remains, and probably always will, as the only March to have an average temperature in NYC below 30°.

Don't get me started on the 21 inch measurement in Manhattan. I've studied the pictures and the surrounding areas measurements and there is little doubt in my mind that Manhattan received somewhere between 30-36 inches from that storm. Brooklyn and Queens measured 36 inches and New Haven 45, Albany 48 and Saratoga 58.

I'd be curious what Uncles take is on the Manhattan measurement, as I don't know of any better weather historian out there.

I agree that it was way under measured. The storm had hurricane fource wind gusts. That would cause the snow crystals to break apart and settle big time. If it had been measured on a snow board it was a 30+ storm for the entire metro

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll bump my post in 6 weeks. It's not trolling, I'm very confident the snow is pretty much done. 

Take a look at the 12z Gfs op, it has a full scale Pacific jet roaring through mid February. If that verifies then Feb will be warmer than both Dec & Jan.

1. We see accumulating snow Tuesday night. 

2. After the cold and dry period we see a transient warmup associated with MJO 6/7

3. As the MJO goes into 8 we are approaching the absolute peak of snow climatology and more specifically for KU storms. 

4. A -NAO developes in the long term.

We go through this snowless how?

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

I nominate this for the worst post of all time on this forum. And it has absolutely nothing to do with lack of snow. It has everything to do with making a blanket statement intended to stir the pot. This is straight trolling.  

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You were alive in the 80s and early 90s outside of the super el nino of 1983 this is usually what happened.  Maybe the same mechanism is happening this year, I'd like to see a nice analysis of it post-season, something other than a streak of "bad luck" lol.  It would help us understand what happened back then too.

 

Even the 80s which everyone constantly brings up as an example of bad winters had snow events. Not blockbusters but snow events. If we throw out the November storm what we have seen this winter is unprecedentedly bad.

I still think the warmup is is much more muted then modeled and we do see a few snow events at the coast before we throw in the towel for good 

I think there has been way way too much focus on the MJO this winter. While it is a factor there are many reasons for our lack of snow. I think the biggest has been the wrong placement of the PNA ridge out west. This leads to the trough access in the east being in an unfavorable position. And we end up with rain event, cold, rain event and repeat. Had these two factors been different we would be looking out our windows at feet of snow.

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This is the same old pattern we have been stuck in and will probably be stuck in the rest of the winter we get close to record breaking cold next week then we end up with this on FEB 4 and rain

Yeah those 240 hour forecasts have been spot on this season. Glad another rainstorm is definitely coming 

45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

You could make the case for general climatology. But obviously there are a million factors that lead to the rain snow line setup. 

18 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

LBSF when are we looking at ? Before or after the Super Bowl Feb 3rd ?

Other then a brief relaxation around week 2 it’s just wall to wall for all 6 weeks. There is a reason the pros (the real deal guys not the clicks for dollars crew) have been so optimistic about February