LongBeachSurfFreak

22 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Sorry to hear--the last few summers haven't been too bad if I remember correctly--humidity hasn't been too harsh

Last summer was one of the most humid ever, if not the most humid. We had multiple days with high 70s dews 

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Definitely one of those storms where one needs to look at multiple graphics to get the full story.  For the 12Z NAM, the Pivotal map shows the snow through Tuesday early morning (more to the S of 195/276 due to the Monday system) and then the snow changes to sleet for most of CNJ/NNJ until early afternoon (where soundings from Trenton to NYC looks like sleet, changing to rain somewhere around 1-2 pm Tues), where one can estimate the amount of sleet by subtracting the Pivotal snow from the Tidbits "snow" (which is snow + sleet, all at a 10:1 ratio).   

Kind of tedious, but no single map can really work.  This can work for the NAM, GFS and FV3; pretty sure the CMC/Euro/UK maps are just snow, but not 100% sure on that and if that's right not sure if they show sleet some other way or if one has to count precip under sleet soundings manually - I'm sure there are better ways to do this - might be time to start paying for this kind of info, lol.  Might not be worth this effort yet, 3 days out, since much will likely change, but it helps me, at least.  

Isn't it about time for a storm thread?  In my head when the NAM covers just about the whole storm, that's time...

 

Couldn’t agree more. Allot of personal conversations and talk of a snowless winter and where’s summer?

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's going to be a no from me dawg. NYC probably sees ~4-5" per usual SWFE. Does it or does it not get washed away? That is the question. High placement is ideal, primarily low strength and placement is certainly not.

Great post and pretty much covers where we stand currently. In these types of events surface temps on the coast can be an issue if the primary is too strong and winds are onshore. It helps some that water temps are at there lowest of the year but if winds are strong enough from the E/SE temps go above freezing. That’s why it’s too early to predict amounts. 

Nw of the city is a whole other ball game and going with the seasonal trend should be good to go.

Way way way too early to start talking about totals and rain snow lines. Focus on the big features. High placement and track of the primary.

we do have colder ocean temps on our side and that’s one of the major reasons February is the snowiest month for the coast.

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you

Snowman vs. an entire model consensus. classic!

if it does turn out the way you are implying (strong primary into the lakes) which I said yesterday had a 50/50 chance and today is down to 25/75 you will be here with I told you so. If not, you will be mia for sure 

51 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’d rather get a colder solution with less snow than heavier wet snow to heavy rain come on guys. We’re a team

Have to agree with you here. I wouldn’t spike the football yet though. But at the this point I would take an advisory event and run

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full. 

There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. 

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

LBS help a brother out what is Upton saying ?

Read the AFD. They think snow is entirely possible even to the coast

57 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. 

Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer 

I love it!!! Canceling winter in early feb, with a extremely high amplitude MJO wave into 8/1!!!

you guys rock!

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you seriously buying what the gfs is showing?

We should be focusing on the signal at this lead time not specifics. The reality is this is the best shot the coast has had since November 

12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Many times? Back that up pilgrim. What constitutes many times? 

That’s Unc territory. 96, 78 to add to the three I already mentioned. I would say it’s at least a once a decade event on average 

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Tell ya what, we can't get most storms to last more than a few hours. 30 hours is more than a day. It's gonna snow for 30 hours straight? No, it isn't. But I did not say that you said it would, did I? You read a model output and reported it, and I commented. Let's not read too much into it.

Wow, it can snow for allot longer then 30 hours and has many many times. PD2 is a great example. Previous to that there was the 70 hour storm in the 60s. And most notoriously the blizzard of 88.

I’m not saying this particular event will, but making blanket statements like that doesn’t help this forum. 

This event is gaining traction, and may finally be the snow event we have been waiting for.

More conflicting signals today. While it appears that we do finally head into favorable MJO phases we also have potentially a positive AO on the way in the long term. That would be the ultimate kick to this winter. We finally get favorable tropical forcing only to have it ruined by a lack of cold air

Some garbage posts today. I’ll attempt to get things back on track.

1. Major wild card MJO. This has been discussed, if we do so a move into the cold phases that could radically alter long range modeling. So I wouldn’t focus on it so much now as it’s subject to change.

2. Gradient pattern, with the -PNA -EPO and it’s resultant cold across the west and northern tier and SE ridge lurking it will all come down to where the gradient sets up. Normally with -PNA we wouldn’t have a shot but the -EPO is sending a conflicting signal with cold ejecting from the western trough east. This is where your baroclynic zone sets up. As has been the case most of the winter it has been to our north where northern NE and southern Canada have seen record snow. Which in it of itself reinforces a local cold air source. This may have implications later in the season. (Potential for cold shots in early spring)

3. Lack of blocking. We have seen a pretty presistant +NAO. And that appears to continue somewhat. This gives me pause from looking for KU type events. 

So to summarize, we need to watch where the gradient sets up. If we can get it to setup a little further south then it has been we are in business. I would think that’s rather unlikely as a whole. But there will be plenty chances.

If I had to bet, gun to my head right now I would say we get at least one but possibly a few advisory level + events for the coast when we are on the right side of the gradient.

Overall based on the above factors at this time it’s a super low confidence forecast due to conflicting signals.

Anyone claiming winter is over or snowmagedon is on the way is.... talking out their ass 

16 hours ago, snowgeek said:

Bummer. Hope you recover quickly. Seems to be a lot of injuries this season!


.

I cannot describe to you how happy I was to be back out. I’m certainly not fully healed though! I took a chance against advice from pretty much everyone I know. But for those that love it as much as I do you do what you have to do. Conditions were primo and I made sure not to fall, which i did not do once all weekend. I also knew that next weekend will be an ice skating rink again. You have to get on it when it’s good and make sacrifices!  

We should definitely see overperforming temps away from the water this week. But closer to the water spring type seabreezes will kick in mid morning. The difference in “feel” from my house on the SS and the city is pretty incredible. 

Moving forward winter comes back this weekend. But the pattern isn’t condusive for big snows along the coast. At least not yet. We could see an advisory type event next week, but we need to work on the -PNA

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dense fog along the South Shore. Pretty scene here in  SW Suffolk with the sun through the fog.

 

Ton of frost here this morning may have been caused by some freezing fog overnight. I would have to imagine it was pretty epic out in the line barrens with KFOK In the 20s overnight 

First day back out today since the injury. Great conditions but the crowds were unbearable. I thought the cold would have scared people away but no such luck. As packed as it gets. Some super strong winds on the summit which I enjoyed but I’m sure the general public hated! 

3 minutes ago, dWave said:

So sick of this salt. Since the Nov snowstorm disaster the City has been on some kind of salt fetish.

It’s absolutely horrible. Unfortunately it’s going to kill allot of old stately trees that are already under stress. Like elms in Manhattan. 

When the going gets tuff the tuff get going. 3’ solid pack at my Vermont house right now. It’s been a great winter 150 miles north of NYC. I still think we score later in February. But every time it snows in DC it’s a real kick while down.

-7 here in pikes falls gorge SVT. About 3’ pack of which about 6” is glacier from November. I really should core this stuff. Gotta be 6” in this.

The NY harbor buoy (13 miles offshore) water temp is down to 38. This will help coastal locations with mixing issues when the cold air comes back. So this cold blast wasn’t a total waste.

Watching Dc get snow again today is pretty ruff. Luckily we at least had that squall. 

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The north shore fared well with this one relative to the typical disintegration of summer storms.  

Nice, there is basically nothing in wantagh. Nice little snow cover up here on the uws. It’s possible it had more to do with initial temps as the wind was screaming off the water before the squall