LongBeachSurfFreak

42 minutes ago, Jason215 said:

A agree with your sentiment of wasting the cold with nothing to show for it, but if you are going to discount November, are you also going to discount any March snows we may potentially get?  

Last year we got I believe more than half our snowfall in March, even though March is not part of “meteorological” winter. We had a surprise snowstorm this Pastor November, why would we not count it?  That being said, we still have about a month to make up for lost time, hoping we can make some lemonade out of this lemon! 

A mid November storm is akin to a mid April storm if you look at the historical significance. (That’s why that October storm in 2011 was a 1/100 year event just like the May 77 storm) 

i would consider all of March like all of December snow season. First half and second half especially. It doesn’t really matter anyway even with that event this season has still been awful. The one thing I do not want is some 98 repeat where 5” fell and melted a few hours later and ruined the futility record in the process. 

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That's probably because your income wasn't adversely affected by 2011-2012.  Honestly, to experience a worse winter than 1997-98 you'd have to move to Key West.

I should clarify that the reason for those winters being better would be the lack of wasted cold. 01-02 had little cold but it snowed when the little cold showed. 97-98 was a super nino furnace and was fully expected. The only winter I can think of (and remember we aren’t counting the November event) is 72-73. That’s the only other winter that has this ones cold and lack of snow. As much as we kept hitting home runs every time we were at bat the last few years we equally struck out this year. The ultimate thread the needle bad. Watch DC score another another one this week and we miss out (entirely possible).

I’m still optimistic that we score at least one advisory+ snow event before the end of the season. In order to do that we need to completely reshuffle the pattern. 40/70 baby

This is quickly becoming my least favorite winter of all time (minus the nov event as it was not winter). BOS has a snow storm now leaving NYC as the sole area from North Carolina north to not have a snow event over 2”. Wednesday could easily be another non event. We have one last shot the last few days of feb into the beginning of March where the PNA could finally go positive and we could see a bench mark type track regime take over. If that does not pan out this will be hands down my least favorite winter of all time  

Some micro sleet pellets mixed with the light rain on the uws  

Actually have a few flakes mixed in now uws 

Just plain rain in NYC, had a few pellets when precip was heavier. Hopefully not a bad sign for southern NE. Heading up to Vermont Wednesday night. 

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous.  This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for.  You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by.  

Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow

and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws

16 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said:

The radar looks horrible. Can the mods pin this thread on top

And it shouldn’t look great yet. This isn’t a coastal (bench mark) type storm. We have to take what we can get before the main low track changes the begging of March.

16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm definitely more than 5 miles from the ocean and if I got 2 inches out of this I'd be estatic 

I think it thumps pretty good for a few hours. Temps will drop nicely once precips starts

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say this one surprises on the high side for the city anywhere 5 miles Nw of the ocean. 2” in the park

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

32 in wantagh right on the bay 

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

its going to snow everywhere but maybe the jersey shore 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Winds start backing though over the next several hours to more E.  Even with a S-SE wind now everyone has underachieved on highs.  The problem with this event is best QPF is north and a warm nose in the mid levels will work in. 

I still think there are issues right at the coast, but turning the winds more east could help. Dews are great for this event. We should all wet bulb nicely. 

45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Don’t be so sanctimonious.   Posting pics of snow?  That’s not banter?  Please

Explain to me how posting pics of snow is not part of a weather forum but constant reminders of how you hate snow is? It’s turned into an every day thing and it’s getting really old.

Nice onshore flow currently on the south shore, which is my reasoning for low expectation right at the coast. This is a 20 miles inland event.

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's rain NYC and Long Island it's not "odd" the boundary layer warms right up with East winds.

I’ll make sure to post lots of pics of NYC snow tonight. Dews rule again.

And do I need to remind everyone this is a weather forum? There is a ridiculous amount of banter in here today. We get it, you do not like snow. So post about it in banter.

30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's only Wednesday and the gefs and 18z Euro came north.

While this is true the pattern this winter is for suppression with these types of systems. No one wants snow more then me, but I would be willing to bet good money this is another DC special. It wouldn’t surprise me if even they fringe.

21 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

For all the hype--we received about .5 inch of snow in Melville LI

Broadway is covered the entire day. Regardless of how exactly it got there this is a high impact event. I have seen it down to blacktop during multiple 6” events.

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

my snow amounts were bang on, low level cold was a tad more impressive than i thought but the end result is the same.  NYC will be raining by 7pm.  My thoughts on mid level warmth severely reducing the snow to a 1-2 hr period was bang on.  

NYC with absolutely not be raining by 7 not here on the Nw side not even close. Moderate sleet/snow continues

Seems to be trying to flip back to snow on the uws 

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sleet and snow mix here with 2” OTG. Only 21 degrees. Fearful of this becoming a major icing event.

Up there for sure, I would be worried about a fully scale ice storm. 

Sleet uws about 2” total 

33 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

maybe one of you guys who KNOWS better and possibly you can post the radar loop or comment but again it APPEARS that a LOW might be  "trying" to form by the Outer Banks https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/USNC0479:1:US

I took a close look at things and it does not appear to be the case. The primary is so powerful it will not matter much anyway. The high is really running the show right now 

Temps have been dropping rather then rising at buoy 44065 (NY Harbor entrance) with an ENE rather then E wind this should help coastal areas early on. Generally in these setups temps are torching out there 

1 minute ago, WallexWall said:

I think the snow comes in around 5 in the city. You can see the radar is ahead of schedule 

Dry air to overcome, 7 is the call right now.

Something to take into account in the city itself we do not have super cold ground temps. So we are really going to need it to come down heavy in order to accumulate on main roads. Sleet will accumulate just about anywhere though.

43 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Actually the EPS shows a stout -NAO in the long range. Glad you don’t buy that though, we didn’t expect anything different from you.   Maybe you should look at the guidance first. 

Exactly, he just makes things up to suit his narrative. After a relaxation things get very interesting. Obviously it’s far enough to not be set in stone but the pattern overall becomes much more conducive.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.   The SSW was a joke, no Atl blocking to speak of and a Pac Jet from hell. 2 impressive arctic outbreaks but nothing to lock in the cold airmass... Now the upcoming -PNA will just seal the deal.    Bring on spring.  (agree with the 01-02 and 11-12 comment-just give me wall to wall warmth instead of this garbage)

Well if this winter wasn’t proof that the largest body of water on the planet runs show I do not know what is. And you know we are getting snow in April and a cold wet early spring when ATL side blocking finally does materialize