LongBeachSurfFreak

Exactly. Allot of very serious inland wind damage. Like complete collapse of the power grid type damage. Disney would never be the same if this verified.

That’s a sign of the storm maximizing the environment. I think we go 915mb 165mph before an EWRC. Watching history today…

Still has to pass over the loop current. While I do not think this will continue to strengthen right into landfall we likely haven’t seen peak intensity yet.

Not a drop on the uws. The only good news is, it’s getting to the end of the growing season.

This has to be you’re worst all time post. I’m not wishing for another major disaster, but this is a lock for another 50 billion plus storm. Why, Population.

Wind wise, that would be great. But surge wise Katrina wrote the book in regards to building a surge, that propagates like a tsunami even after winds diminish.

Where’s my stapler…. I feel so bad talking shit about this storm. This is really going to be a generational disaster. I have a very close friend in TPA visiting her daughter and first grand child and I keep trying to stress to her how serious this is. She keeps saying they didn’t flood during Helene and the house is new and well constructed. All of which are good but all bets are off if this plays out the way I think it’s going to. I lived 4 blocks from the beach during Irene in 2011 in a ground floor apartment, we had 6” of water and I moved after. Sandy a year later and that same apartment had close to 6 feet. I keep telling all my friends to evacuate and get their cars out of Long Beach and everyone said “Irene was a bust and this will be the same” well every single person lost their car and or their home. (Luckily all survived) I just can’t stress enough how serious this is for TPA. Better safe than sorry.

I agree, despite the hyperactive hurricane season not materializing, we are still in a historic monitory season. Which was well forecast. (Regardless of how we got there)

It’s a factor, but not a big one as it’s going to pass over the loop current which continually refreshes new warm water. It’s one of the biggest OHC (ocean heat content) in the world. Think Katrina and Rita. It could certainly weaken slightly after moving into the shelf waters, but surge wise to little to late.

Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event.

I’m more concerned with Alaska being cold.

Kirk is clearing out its eye again. Beautiful presentation. If it were near the east coast it would fill the map. Definitely one of the best eastern Atlantic storms on record, owing to record OHC. Pure ace producer, and surfers delight.

Not surprising seeing wantagh as the driest spot. Definitely a micro climate dry spot on the south shore of nassua during convection season. Jones beach takes it even further, it looks like a brown waste land their currently.

I’d say right in the cusp. Large storm and cdo isn’t a full doughnut which is what dvark estimate looks for, symmetry. Probably, my best guess 150mph right now. Cat 4 max. OHC out that far is that high so we are likely whitnessing a full potential storm x

Kirk really looking impressive now on IR. Eye is cleared out. Could make a run at cat 5 tomorrow.

It has the perfect combo of intensity, size, and duration (captured fetch directed at the east coast) to send a swell that will be remarkably powerful. Places like the OBX are already in a precarious situation do to erosion. Highly energetic long period swells (rare on the east coast) can cause lots of erosion and beach washoever. A deep water swell with a period greater then 17 seconds contains KE orders of magnitude higher then a similar size wind wave with a period of less then 7 seconds. im not saying this is going to be another disaster by any stretch, just that it maybe deceivingly more impactful then your normal run of the mill cat one moving NE in the open Atlantic.

Still pouring sheet drizzle on the uws. Very constistant band that had just not moved all day.

Im sure it’s a communication issue. I went through this on 9/11 my mom was an American Airlines flight attended flying that morning and my dad was director of security at trinity church and a retired port authority Lt. who was almost killed at the trade center in the 93 bombing. I was at Towson university in Maryland as a college student and couldn’t get in touch with anyone in my family for hours. Full on panic attack. My mom’s plane was grounded at dfw and my dad was at a training class in midtown. Biggest relief of my life they were both ok. But I fully understand the anxiety.

It’s been constant sheet drizzle on the uws. I’m happy we got the gradual soaking my we needed but I came into work to dOn an overtime pruning project and ended up soaked, apparently people get soaked too…

Legit surge damage in cedar key. Not even close to the center. Shows the size of Helene.

Impressive considering the distance from the center. Truly a massive cane.

Not surprising given forward speed and interaction with synoptic environment . This was clearly modeled as well. I think that’s why this never goes full on cat 5. Se quadrant is going to be a prolific surge producer.

Yup, if it reaches full potential I would expect that Katrina/rita look in the gulf.

Would love to be in Cancun right now. Outflow looks excellent now, I think this is about to go full tilt. RI today with some of the best OHC on the planet.

Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is.