LongBeachSurfFreak

Typical November pattern. Lots of screaming south easters followed by strong west winds. New Jersey surfers dream month.

If we do end up seeing a low with pressure around 970 there are going to be strong winds. It’s been a long time since even advisory level winds area wide. Some time early last spring. There are going to be allot of leaves blowing around from drought stressed trees

Upton doesn’t seem to be on board with strong winds yet. I guess it all comes down to the exact track of the low. I’m expecting a high impact event with at least advisory level winds

Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast.

Strongest winds of the whole event right now

One thing that wasn’t blown was the marine forecast. Some of the largest and most powerful waves I have have surfed in Long Beach. Just monster walls of water imploding with a sound like thunder. Waves should increase even further into tomorrow morning. The huge east fetch is really working it’s magic.

Not the bust we needed here on the island. Only .38” yesterday. The drought continues

Up to .54” of much needed rain on the uws. It isn’t much under normal circumstances but we desperately needed it.

Finally the long duration soaking rain we desperately needed! The prolonged nature of the rain will allow the ground to slowly moisten and begin absorbing the rain. You do not want Short duration heavy convective rain when the Ground is dried to a hard shell as it just runs off. Winds are pretty meh so far on the island. I was surfing earlier and the waves are increasing. There should be some good erosion at prone locations. Long Beach is going to loose a ton of the dredged sand.

Not going to be a good time for me, or anyone in the horticulture industry. When it does happen it’s going to have serious consequences for area Forrest’s too.

It’s a good thing it’s not winter. This one would be tuff to watch. CC gets 3’ and the city has blowing pixie dust

I was way too young but from the story’s I have been told it was the storm of all time. I know a guy that surfed rockaway and said it was 20’ clean and ridable. He got injured after washing over a jetty.

Winds will be onshore in NJ, resulting in sloppy unsurfable waves. Offshore on li

It’s all about your perception: I think this fall has been incredible so far. Hurricane swell after hurricane swell. Followed by a solid nor’easter. A surfers dream. This one will not work out for New Jersey but there are spots on Long Island that will have world class waves this week.

I think this storm over preforms wind wise. These October pressure gradient driven storms tend to do so. I think it has to do with the more convective nature of storm being able to mix down higher winds. October 1996 comes to mind, we had 70+.gusts and tree damage with that one. I could see some areas also over preforming precip wise as well. There will likely be bands of of heavy rain that sit and dump. Where they setup and how far west they make it, is the big unknown at this point

Going with a full Icon this year. Based at Stratton as that’s where my house share is. My friends in the house are all on the ski patrol so they aren’t leaving Stratton ever. The good thing for me this winter is I’ll be able to get out and explore. Planning on doing killington a bunch and a late season sugarloaf expedition. That mountain is big on my list of places to ride. I’m also doing my first out west trip to aspen for spring fling in April. Heres to hoping we have an ice free winter!!!

We haven’t had anything like that with trees in full leaf in a while. There aren’t nearly as many trees as pre Sandy/Irene on the island but I would still expect some tree damage and power outages. That’s if we get gusts to 60+. 60 seems to be the threshold.

Exactly. It’s the same thing every year. Model hugging. We need the rain desperately on the island. Another major precip fail last night and today. 0.0” in wantagh.

Finally some solid rain. If we get the coastal storm far enough Nw we end the flash drought as fast as it started. I think there are going to be some pretty serious coastal impacts with this storm. It’s been many years since we had a storm that produced large battering waves over many high tide cycles. Historically some similar events caused damage on par with hurricanes. The key with this setup is the fetch area. With the pressure gradient between the blocking high and coastal storm creating an anomalously long fetch aimed at the MA/NE.

The biggest impact from this storm will be erosion. We made it through last winter without even a moderate nor’easter. So area beaches will loose allot of sand that has built up. This will be in addition to some minor erosion that occurred with the last few hurricane swells.

I was driving on the southern state earlier today from out east and the drought is pretty severe in western Suffolk. Allot of trees that have turned brown which is generally a sign they are dead. The ones that have turned colors are just stressed. It wasn’t confined to just oaks which have their own problems but a number of species. Once to the Nassau border things greened up a bit.

Amazing, cannot buy a drop of rain on the uws. Everything misses in every way possible.

High temp records are a joke. The park is dry as a bone. Let’s do this.

This is exactly why I never call a storm a fish. I was out surfing the Lorenzo swell today and it was incredibly powerful. 16 second swell periods are extremely rare on the east coast. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-search-missing-teens-rockaway-20191001-4zqaogxpdzhullj3n72tqq4mky-story.html

That’s a thing of my happiest dreams. I’m fully completely sick of hoses and watering. 10 hours a day, day after day.