LongBeachSurfFreak

We shall see. A period of colder weather yes. But the -PNA and SE ridge pattern has been so damn consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cold scaled back. Plus cold/snow in November has really proven to be a bad thing for the winter.

I would take that and flip the trough to the west coast. I don’t think this winter is a complete dud however. There should be at least one period of blocking that yields a decent period of cold and KU potential. Other then that it’s +2-4 and cutter rain, transient cold and repeat. I’mp basing this off the incredible persistence of the screaming pac jet.

Exactly my thoughts. Overall I think it’s a pac dominated -PNA winter. The wild card is a prolonged period of blocking that could save the winter.

True, the November thing is starting to hold some water. I’d rather see a positive AO in November allow some cold air to build in the arctic. One thing is for sure, the arctic needs to cool down. Record warmth and record low sea ice up there effects everything down stream

Ready to do some exploring this winter with the full icon pass. We really need a full scale pattern change to avoid cutters and lots of ice.

This pattern scares me, for its incredible persistence. Absolutely nothing would be worse then cutter and rain to cold and dry to cutter and rain. We need a full scale pattern change.

A nice soaking rain, exactly what we needed!

Pretty spot on. There is no, new normal. The only thing that is sure is to expect the unexpected

Seems like we had a secondary wind maximum the last few hours. I would think from better mixing during the day. Lots of small branches down around campus.

Not many trees left in LB. I’m sure pre Sandy it would have been a different story. Incredible storm!

The huge trees in my backyard are really whipping around. Surprised I haven’t lost an big branches. Just a few smaller ones for now.

44065 (Ny harbor) 52 knot gust, Strongest west gust I have seen there in a long time. It’s on

West winds are over performing currently from PHL to NYC. You guys will have plenty of wind later too

Great shot!!!

Winds were really funneling between buildings, a fully leafed zelcova tree was bending. That’s going to be the big impact. In March 50mph west gusts aren’t too big a deal, in October they are damaging. (To trees)

Sheets of drizzle and increasing winds on the uws. Headed home to the island

Getting close to game time for the wind switch. I think it’s going to take allot of people by surprise. Of course it would have been an infinitely more impactful event had it occurred at 5pm instead of 10.

Rain rates were higher then radar returns showed in the last batch that came through Manhattan. I was out unclogging drains and it had that heavy drizzle type of effect with small droplet size. This last batch and the fact that it’s producing good rates may get us closer to the predicted 2” amounts. central Suffolk I would be prepared for damaging winds with that line coming up

Which direction are those heading? 39.2 mph gust at the wantagh meso so far which is fairly high for that station.

Shocker rain amounts were way overdone

Precip shield rapidly approaching the city. Let’s gooooooo

That takes this right from a nuisance event to something potentially damaging. Trees along the coast are still in full leaf. incredible clouds currently on the island

From what I get from some of the Mets, there’s a lag between deepening and winds. This thing is moving too fast for us to maximize winds. Also the majority of the area is on the weaker side of the storm. There will be plenty of wind tomorrow though region wide with a prolonged period of west winds with gusts in the 40s

I’m thinking one of those massive region wide flood advisory type deals with a 100 mile wide band of heavy rain. .5-1” an hour type rates in that band. But being that it’s narrow and fast moving it never gets to a full flood situation. In another couple of weeks this same scenario would be much higher impact with leaves clogging drains. looks like the best winds on the front side will miss us to the east, so maybe some 40mph gusts for the coast. On the back side everyone should see some gusts approaching 50.

Everyone will on the backside.