LongBeachSurfFreak

Started as plain rain on the Uws! I wasn’t. Expecting that at all

My buddy’s said Stratton was ruff in the afternoon. Ice everywhere, glad I wasn’t there!

Yeah I figure about the same seasonal snowfall as wantagh. I wouldn’t use December 2005, this is so completely different. temps and dews are lower then originally forecast up here. My campus is elevated on morningside heights right next to the Hudson. Expecting double here then home. Looks like we will get at least some accumulation this morning with the ground now cold

Exactly, the south shore is going to struggle like usual. I’m looking forward to doing well at work on 120th and Broadway. I can usually expect to see a couple extra inches compared to the rest of the city in marginal events owing to fact that I’m about as far Nw as you can get. That’s were I am for 99% of NYC snow events. And by the way I moved from wantagh to Lynbrook on franklin Ave very close to Malvenre so we are neighbors now!

29 at the wantagh meso. Hanging on to a prayer for Monday evening.

It’s still entirely possible and why I’m sticking to 2-8” for the city for now. I really think someone in the metro area sees a surprise Monday evening. The where exactly is impossible to predict .

Clouds moving in and temp 35 at the wantagh meso. Glad I’ll be on the far uws side for this instead of home on the snow starved south shore

I think this is one of the wacky storms where right up against the sound rains while 2 miles inland scores. The front end is going to be a whole lot of nothing on the island regardless. It comes down to banding on the backside. I wouldn’t throw in the towel for you. Your in a good spot for a backside surprise

They do not have the elevation to get the lift on the easterly flow that the southern greens have. You can really ring out the moisture on the east side of the greens in these events. Regardless it should be close with more synoptic precip further south. If I had to pick a precise jackpot it would be mt. Graylock at 3491’ in the Berkshires. It’s going to puke snow out there for 36 hours. Down in the city round two is a tuff call. I’m hesitant to go big based on past events underperforming on the back side. But with the right band pivoting through you could surprise all the way to 8” hence my 2-8” call

I think 2-8” is a good call for the park right now. I think the southern greens jackpot with 2’+ great, great storm up there!

One of the things we have going for us in that scenario is the tendency to follow the Gulf Stream. High resolution models will have a better handle on that as we get closer. It’s the difference between a warning event for the coast or just some slushy accumulations

Because they do not ride the American weather model and emotional rollercoaster. we saw how important high position is this time of year (slightly earlier) with last November’s event. The trends with the high placement have been great today. But at the this lead time all they are, are trends. I’m feeling confident everyone see at least some snow now

I would be willing to bet a large sum of money that December ends several degrees above normal. Repeating patterns have been incredibly persistent the last few years. Cold November’s followed by mild December’s. It’s going to be a -PNA month all the way. And happy Thanks Giving everyone!

It could have worked out differently last winter had the storm track been more favorable. I think we toss December this year but after that cash in. We have seen a much more coastal storm track this year. With the locking nature of patterns what was miss after miss last winter easily could have been hit after hit. Is it going to be a legendary winter like 95/96, most likely not, but not a rater either.

Agreed, you want to be above 80 for this type of setup regardless of the time of year.

With a primary doing what it’s doing at the this time of year it’s a solid bet the coast is rain. In Jan/feb it would be still be a stretch. There is a chance if the secondary really bombs and is in the perfect spot you could see a flip to snow with the CCB but that’s about it

For December that’s pretty likely. Later in the winter we should get the goods. The storm track off the coast so far has been encouraging.

My uncle has a house at 1900’ just south of Binghamton and said there was a freezing rain overnight Saturday. He ended up getting 4” of snow later in the day

NYC 27” Ewr 31” Isp 34” Jfk 21” Mmu 64” Bdr 32” MJg 72” Home (lynbrook) 22” almost all of coastal snow falls in a 3 week period from late January to early February. Inland does well in marginal gradient patterns that screw the coast

Drizzle on the uws. Haven’t had any sleet and I have been outside working all morning. With the stronger winds later today it’s going to be a leaf blizzard here with oaks finally in full drop mode

I wrote we could get lucky with an early season event. It’s still a little early for the coast just look at past storm numbers, so it’s going to be thread the needle. Cold has to be timed right and readily available or it’s 33 and rain at the coast will inland cashes in.

Yeah, that’s why I agree with BW, we have seen this show a million times. Models look great in the long run only to default back to pattern recognition. We could get lucky and score an early season event but my money’s on the big show coming sometime in late January

You can still force storms to cut if the SE ridge is too strong regardless of the -NOA -EPO combo.

About as boring a weather day as you can get. Great for finishing fall cleanups. Looks like the weak storm this weekend will produce some snow for the ski resorts

Exactly, I’ll pass on a -NAO in April. The one thing that’s concerning is the near repeat of the past 2 cold seasons thus far with record breaking November cold. Do we follow the same narrative? Also, does an early season -NAO without arctic air access cut it for the coast.