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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s not an exact science, but they use observations of storm size and strength. Mostly ship reports. I’m sure some seasons are under reported as a mid ocean hurricane could have missed ships.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Tropical cyclone Tracy 1974 the smallest landfalling major in history had a peak surge of 13’. And tropical storm force winds only extened out 30 miles. So yes is is very important but so is intensity.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Some surprisingly strong winds gusts this afternoon on the uws, we often get enhancement being up in morningside heights right on the Hudson. Some small branches down, so around 40 I would think.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah it’s bad enough now, luckily most plants are just going to go straight into hibernation. Had it been summer they would have just died. In the 10 years I have been in charge of horticulture for Columbia/Barnard this is the driest stretch I have seen. Usually it’s a couple weeks this time it’s been months.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    In NE PA, rollling thunder and 43 degrees. At least they are getting some drought relief. All the creeks and streams were down to basically a trickle.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The good thing is, the Caribbean specifically in the basin between Jamaica and Central America has year round water temps above 26 historically. And it’s doesn’t always produce storms after November, due to other factors mainly shear. The WPAC does however…
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Can barely see a tinge in lynbrook. I’ll be in Pa near the ny state border tomorrow night. Will try again
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    My coworker is obsessed. He couldn’t believe he was alive. I tried to explain yesterday he would be ok where he was. Guys certainly interesting and now famous.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Another major factor is the size and depth of the continental shelf. Also the angle of the coast and direction of landfall.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m sure siesta key will be ground zero. Lots of high end real estate to drive up damage costs.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Too little too late. Just too much going against another period of intensification. More then likely the effects of baroclynic forcing. The wind field is definitely increasing and highest winds will probably stay steady state low end cat 3. This is, was and always will be about a record surge into a major population centers
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Incredible. The resilience is textbook. Time is running out for weakening. And while it will obviously weaken the fact that it’s still so strong now into the final climb towards landfall means the surge and wave setup is that of a cat 5. Very Katrina.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I mean I hate to bring up the S word since allot of people on the board freak, but we went through this is with Sandy. The whole (well Irene wasn’t bad) so I’m not leaving. I have lots of friends who left for Irene then insisted on staying for sandy and obviously majorly regretted it. And that was only about 8/9’ of surge and cat one winds. 10+ and major winds are infinitely more life threating
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I can’t argue against the data, but I will say the size of the eye is larger then last night. Those tiny pin hole eyes often produce the highest winds in respect to pressure. When the WPAC had recon in the past there were many more typhoons (sub 900 though pressures run slightly lower there) that could give you the real answers.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely watching history right now. Cannot be stressed enough how serious the surge threat is for Florida. This second sub 900 intensification is the absolute last thing Florida needed. Katrina is the only other storm that’s in this ballpark, and somewhat similar in that, the surge will not match the landfall intensity. Scary stuff
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Still passes over the current, just not in the loop itself. Regardless water temps the whole way can easily support a major and aren’t really the biggest factor here. That will be eventual shear/dry air. I like how the NHC mentions last minute baroclinic fourcing. That’s where you develope that potential sting jet that may bring wind damage further inland then normal as you aren’t relying on the thunderstorms in the eyewall to produce strong winds.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, I’m just saying the worst truly catastrophic damage will be in the Sarasota area. Milton will also have a swath of inland wind damage right through Orlanda basically paralleling the developed interior of Florida.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I just spent some time looking at the coast on google earth in the Sarasota area (ground zero for surge in my opinion) and there is an incredible amount of development in very precarious locations. Huge condo buildings right on the gulf. With 15’ of surge and huge battering waves on top catastrophic damage is likely. This isn’t a Michael and Mexico beach, you have thousands of Mexico beaches. That’s why I think this has the potential to be the costliest hurricane in US history. 200-300 billion
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s the problem I’m wearing my cheese hat today, fresh cheddar. What site are people using for current satellite images? NHC is prettt much frozen….
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Before I go full on sarcasm, care to explain why you feel this way? I’m pretty sure a sting jet with gusts over 100mph well inland is a pretty big deal.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s definitely a factor. It’s a question of how low can you go… As in how small of an eyewall can you get before it collapses and leads to a EwRC. We may see the high end of what pure physics can produce. Next recon is telling and potentially record setting.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Starting to have Hyian look, the strongest satellite recodrded storm in world history. Crazy thing Is, this is happening in a parT of the basin that shouldn’t support it. Absolutely top of the line storm.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Stronger storms tend to end up poleward. More to grasp on to the westerlies, I still think there are more surprises in the way: this is in no way shape or form a typical Atlantic storm.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed likely sub 900 now, pin hole contracting
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    West during the highest winds. Not a great spot for this as there will be a sting jet developing. You may see low precip major hurricane winds, something extremely rare (and destructive)
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