LongBeachSurfFreak

For a week yes. But after a week it would get old real fast. The weather is too extreme to enjoy. On many days it’s just not humanly possible to be outside for more then a few minutes at a time. I have been out in -20 with 40mph winds in the Vermont mountains and it’s not at all appealing. The major thing I’m liking about this winter so far (cold season) are the differences from the last two. The last two winters were as bad as it can get for the immediate coast so to see a different storm track and pattern is at least somewhat encouraging. We almost had a real shutout last winter with 3” near the bay.

I’ll answer you here from the other post. Yes there were mangled flaked mixed in when I was leaving my apt. I’m just south of the southern state on Franklin ave. Not the worst snow spot on the island. Probably right on the rain snow line in some marginal events. I actually witnessed that last winter with one event were I had an inch at the apt and there was only a dusting at the train station. It can be that tight at times.

It’s over anywhere west of central Suffolk. The highest terrain out there must have snow mixed in with that deform band. That would be 2-4” an hour if it were colder

Exactly, you can see the snow going by overhead. I had a few mangled flakes driving to my parents in wantagh from lynbrook. I thought for sure you would have seen at least some snow there being higher, but the winds trip across the sound is probably ruining that. I bet the top of the Nordstrom tower in Manhattan (it has a flat roof and would be an epic observation spot at 1550’) had a few inches

First flakes of the season earlier on the UWS. It’s a start.

Back in the 90s this would have been a 100k outage event with lots of trees down. Events of this level seem to yearly now. the ocean was impressive with the straight onshore flow. Waves were breaking as far out as the eye could see well past any sand bars

Depends on the type of tree. The city planted tons of pears as replacements over the years and they hold their leaves extremely late, sometimes till Christmas. Almost all native species have lost their leaves with the exception of some oaks. If anything this years leaf drop was earlier then the past few as we had the cool shot in late October.

Fits a Niña look under normal circumstances. But what’s normal now? I’ll keep expectations low for now and hope for the best!

That’s nuts, stronger then anything during Isias. Anyone have the live power outage numbers?

Those are big power outage numbers coming out of Ohio and Michigan for leafless trees. Pretty high end event and on par with something you would usually see from a very strong storm, tropical or a derecho.

Beautiful low topped squall line out in Pa. They rarely verify for high winds but maybe this one produces. Pretty windy on the SS currently with gusts around 40mph consistently. We often see the strongest winds just before and after frontal passages in this these setups

Throw out the analogs. There are enough differences from the last two winters to offer some hope that we at least break the streak of no 6” or greater storms for the coast. The last two winters were epic fails south of the southern state.

We actually had some cool weather in October this year, which we didn’t have in last years. That really pushed everything forward. Even in the city trees are dropping quick.

I bet we see allot of gradient storms like the last few winter with low centers heading along 95 and snow north of 84. I think we could pull off a wintery stretch with some transient blocking. If I had to guess it’s when we don’t want it, sometime in March.

In this case it could very well mean wall to wall warmth ala 11/12. I think the best bet going in to this winter for snow lovers (and the snow obsessed like myself) Is to aim low and keep expectations in check.

Exactly. My elephant ear plants at home in Lynbrook took a hit and almost completely defoliated. On campus on the UWS the same plants look great with no damage. So the city hasn’t had a real freeze yet. I actually like the warm November. Having another November with record cold would mean we are still stuck in that awful multi year pattern. I would take any winter over last winter. It was that bad at the coast.

I’m thinking more like 145 knots 920. Unless we see even more tightening before arrival. Water temps support super high end.

One month later and the city would be getting crushed right now. The rain has that recently melted flakes look to it.

Seems reasonable. The right side of the storm will have enhanced winds do to fast forward movement. This is going to be a big power outage event well inland. This portion of the gulf has been a down right hurricane factory this season. If these waters had been undisturbed Zeta would likely be a major.

Riiiiiiiggghhhhhtttttt The storm signal is there

Came in to some damage on campus, one pear tree down and multiple temporary tents thrown and destroyed. Winds had to have been at least 50mph locally

I noticed that driving last night. Basically heavy drizzle. I’ll take it. Anything that adds moisture to the upper soil level is a good thing until we get some real rain this week.

I was lucky to surf the largest East coast waves I have ever ridden yesterday thanks to Teddy. Solid 15-18’ faces at a rock reef in Montauk NY. Teddy has been a prolific swell producer and illustrator of why fetch matters more then maximum wind speed. As teddy’s max wind speeds decreased its enlarging wind field was more able to impart energy into the ocean.

It’s going to be a hell of allot more impactful then you think. Major beach erosion producer which will likely throw many multimillion dollar beach homes in the ocean.

Given the right conditions you could easily see a Patricia type storm there. I wonder what the upper bounds are for intensity and pressure, sub 850 220mph?