LongBeachSurfFreak

I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time

Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s

While it definitely initiated too strong there is a nice window for significant intensification while Henri is over high OHC and aligned with vertical shear. Pretty much anything is still on the table. The only certainty is in large swells and beach erosion regardless of track

.00” at the wantagh meso to add to the .00” for the last 7 days. Hopefully that will change in a big way soon

Very very true. This is why carol has always intrigued me. Because it didn’t follow the 38 playbook. It was home grown and not moving at 60mph but still managed to make landfall as a major. So if Henri happens to take advantage of the window of favorable conditions it will have when it’s crossing the Gulf Stream and overachieve there is a scenario where this is still a formidable hurricane at landfall. Ohhhh and waters are way above historical levels so our normal hurricane buffer isn’t as strong as it used to be

Heading over some of the highest OHC in the basin and pretty close to peak season. If I were on the Yucatán I would be prepared for a major just in case

I was just thinking about him. This is the best cape threat in a long time. Regardless of the final track it’s going to be a fun week at north east beach’s

I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season.

I’m not sure I gave enough importance to just how small the fetch area is with Henri. As of right now it’s hard pressed to create any swell of significance for the east coast. Assuming it both strengthens and enlarges at least some swell is on the way.

Ahhhhhh, I was just going to post about that in here. The current track forecast will lead to a period of captured fetch during the middle of the forecast. That and proximity will lead to bigger swells then one would think from a smallish tropical storm. Any increase in intensity will lead to a pretty sizable swell event. Similar to what we saw with 95’s Felix, the last true heart of the summer beach season prolific swell producer. Generally our hurricane produced dangerous swell events happen in September after the summer crowds and resultant tourists that cannot swim have gone for the summer.

Regardless of the direct US landfall threat this will be a prolific swell producer for the east coast. As it’s prime beach season the rip current threat will be real. Offshore hurricanes have killed dozens of people at east coast beaches over the years.

Considering earthquakes occur miles below the surface I would think it’s just a coincidence. fracking can cause earthquakes but they are much closer to the surface.

I just read the thread and do not see an explanation for the difference between Jay and Sutton. Care to elaborate? My guess would be Jays closer proximity to lake enhancement?

Has to be. I looked like I jumped in a pool earlier just dragging around hoses

I’m outside on the uws currently and feels much cooler then it did earlier in the day. Could be the enhanced breeze. I am rooting so hard for those storms to make it here in tacked. The more it rains the less if have to water these gardens

It’s fairly wet currently here on the uws, so the park may struggle to the low 90s. After the very wet July foliage is very dense. As we have discussed at length unless something is done about the foliage around d the sensor the issue will only get worse moving forward.

Showers are hitting a brick wall before getting to the island. Currently sunny at Jones beach

Pretty much every single screams hyperactive season. I could see canes stacked in the MDR like planes coming into a busy airport. Of course the local pattern will determine wether we have an impactful season. Regardless as an east coast surfer there will be plenty of waves on tap.

Exactly. That’s the mid level shear. regardless of the severe the whole area should see some solid rains

Uh oh. I would hate to have to say congrats south Jersey again. Rooting for getting the wettest July on record for NYC. Let’s go!

There was a slight chill to the air when I left the island for work at 430. Great stretch of weather for those of us that work outside. A nice weather break before what I expect to be non stop tropical tracking. Even if we do not get a direct hit a hyper active season with multiple long track MDR formed majors is on the way.

.04” so far on the uws. Congrats south Jersey as always

Decent down pour and some nice CG lightning with this first line on the uws. Zero wind

Yeah, that’s a bizarre front timing. I was just looking at the radar and figured those were pre frontal storms. If that’s the front then this threat is cooked