LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas. December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.
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There are way better places to live if your going to live somewhere for snow in the north east. Tug hill puts them to shame most years. With limited cold moving over the lakes this isn’t one of them. Who wouldn’t want to experience 76/77 there. 400+ inches.
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Nice inversion today above 3k 38 and snow dwindling fast at 850’ SVT
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Depends on where, rode Stratton tues/weds and with minimal trails open it got dicey quickly with ice and Moguls. Driving back currently from sugar bush where it was much much better. Still limited terrain but conditions were so much better overall with limited ice and much more snow.
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Decided to make the drive north today from SVT where its barely winter. My house this winter in west townshend is only at 800’ and it shows. A couple inches of slush. Things are only marginally better at Stratton. The winter line (real snow cover) starts about 30 miles north on 91. Hoping for some better conditions at the bush.
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The only thing good, is it’s not displacing and dumping into Eurasia. Other then that it’s more of the same.
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A few flurries on the uws currently. Finishing a project at work and heading to my house in SVT for the week, where winter is winter
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Nice find, they should be -40. That’s one hell of a departure and incredibly anomalous. I would like to see some more stats!
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It does, but it also means amped up super moisture charged Miller A’s. Time some cold just right and you have January 16s record NYC snows. Tweak a few variables and that’s how you go for 50”. Chances are warmth will win before we ever see that however.
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The super super duper El Niño is most likely on the way. There’s just too much heat around to sustain La Niña (even though it’s wind based). If NYC were to ever see a 50”+ storm that’s how you get it done, with an atmospheric river flowing in to a nor’easter with a nice source airmass
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Thank you. With zero to back it up. We need the few good posters left or this board is shot. Walt, keep up excellent informative posts. Real meteorology vs. agenda biased modelology. frozen may be a stretch for the coast, but this board includes areas inland and elevated enough to be in the game
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Merry Christmas everyone. Here’s to threading the needle and scoring a couple moderate events the next few weeks!
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They are very far north so all it takes in the proper flow and your closely linked to arctic air with little modification. As far as the summer heat, I would think some of those extreme temps include some downslope compression. Typical Christmas weather in our new climate. Meanwhile an ice storm is underway in southern Vermont at my house there.
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I’m starting to like 11/12 as an analog for this winter. We may be able to pull off a wintry week with a moderate even in the mid January, peak climo time frame. Then it’s just warm. The big takeaway about our new climate is, stuck patterns can suck just as much as they can be amazing. If your a snow lover in the PAC NW, this is a dream pattern.
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
I know your joking, but it’s only a matter of time before we have our first ever 0 winter -
Yeah, shades of 01/02-11/12-19/20 are definitely in the air. We really need a full scale pattern reversal. That might not happen until we have our next Nino. But your just not going to cut it with such a persistent -pna. I’m not the type to throw in the towel, but generally a rat winter shows itself early on.
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11” seems very high. I was at Stratton this weekend and we had about 5”. It just wasn’t enough to really rebound the mountain. There were some major ice challenges by the early afternoon
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Absolutely no shot K has 61 and Okemo 21 when they are only about 30 miles apart and in a very similar geographical area with similar weather. The reality is probably something like 40 and 30. I’ve noticed at Stratton the last 2 winters snow measuring has been conservative to almost under measuring.
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That looks totally workable with the coldest climo of the year.
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Very dry, if we do not start getting more precip soon brush fires will become an issue on dry windy days.
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Looks allot like spring. Luckily good times on the way. Spending the day after to Christmas through New Years up in Vt. Very exiting!
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Or we could go full 01/02,11/12 if the polar vortex stays strong. We will need a major disruption to drop the AO. This winter could easily be a full ratter for us.
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You know things are dismal on the winter weather front when the entire main thread is dominated by snowman.
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Which means nothing when there are no systems to take advantage. Cold and dry is the worst. Some of the most boring weather possible for this time of year. We can’t even get a strong cutter
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Actually had a few flakes mixed in with a rain shower on the uws About 2 hours ago. So first flakes in nyc
