LongBeachSurfFreak

Obviously I was being simplistic and sarcastic. I think a great analogy for C02 is poking a bear. Bears are beautiful creatures that are extremely important to their habitats. Live and let live and it’s all good. I am really starting to think that at the higher intelligence end of the denier spectrum it’s turned into a game. It’s just become too incredibly obvious that the planet is warming at an accelerating rate. It’s fun too make up self serving skewed facts, knowing that others will believe regardless of the truth. This really is a can of worms. We could probably spend a week discussing this in person.

I lived literally on the beach for years during one of the snowiest periods ever on Long Island and never saw anything like that. My guess is it something for the soil that’s concentrating on the front of the snow blower.

I live in Lynbrook too as you know and it the difference between home and the beach was remarkable. Even if it was only a few degrees cooler at the beach, something about the higher dews and of course the wind just makes it feel so raw.

Even a 2c warming isn’t going to end cold shots. Well into April. One thing to consider this spring is the cold pool formed from upwhelling with all the offshore flow this winter. I was just at jones beach to go for a run and with the wind out of the south it was remarkably cold. The cold pool to our north east will also have the ability to bring down chilly maritime air anytime we are in a cutoff pattern. Those patterns are common this time of year as the jet slows and retracts.

Yeah if I had access to google earth as a kid I probably would have too! It gets a little boring staring at an actually globe. Even now I spend hours looking for obscure surf breaks in isolated places. Also glacial retreat facisnates me and can be seen on GE.

Boston is at a similar latitude as Albany so that will do it in a marginal setup. Had it been 2 or 3 degrees cooler all that white rain here would have been a foot plus of snow. They are also in a better spot for late maturing miller B’s into the gulf of Maine. And often get some ocean enchantment.

Of course, but based on the lack of true Arctic air available it’s safe to hedge with highest elevations. I’m not sure if you remember 97, that storm had everything going for it and we ended up with hour after hour of white rain. As soon as we would build up a coating it would turn to drizzle over and over.

I think you should set up the first colony on Venus! Plenty of lovely C02 there. Good thing C02 does not create a positive feed back cycle of planetary heating…

Above 2500’ in the Berks and southern greens sure!!! Anywhere else not so much…

Forrest Hills in a big prewar apartment building. I went there a few days after Sandy as well as they never lost power. I think there are surprises in store with the coming season just like last year. The new normal is expect the unexpected.

Yeah, I was only three for Gloria, but it is my first weather memory. We evacuated south wantagh to my grandmothers in queens. Gloria had allot of similarities to 38 and 44 both in regards to strength and pressure while it was south east of North Carolina. So I understand the hype at the time. The difference between that hurricane and the formers is that it didn’t phase with the trough as cleanly and thus suffered from slower movement and land interaction which caused dry air entrainment destroying the southern side of the storm. The satellite pic in my profile shows that very well. It also hit at low tide. As far as the future, it will always take the perfect setup to get a major up here regardless of rising water temps. Too many land interaction issues based on our geography. Warmer waters enhance the risk but aren’t the end all when you are a 90 degree angle coast.

Cat 2 105mph into South Hampton. Speaking of historic Long Island hurricanes, the nature center at west end 2 at jones beach has some great photos of the damage to jones beach during the hurricane of 38. Pretty similar damage to what we saw with sandy, which is truly remarkable considering jones beach was on the weaker western side of 38. Meaning at the time of peak surge the winds would have been out the north east and then north and offshore. The damage was likely caused by the tremendous waves associated with the storm. I would love to have been on the second floor of the west bathhouse and witnessed those waves coming in to opposing 100mph gusts. Likely spraying a hundred feet or more into the air!

Yeah I fully agree that storm is a worst case scenario for the NY/NJ coast, far worse then Sandy as you have much greater wind impacts with similar or even greater surge. As far as pressure, that may be why it has been historically thought to be a cat 3/4. Again, using the Sandy example hurricanes at our latitude often have pressures much lower then generally associated with its maximum sustained winds if it were fully tropical. Sadly the only way to know for sure would be to go back in time.

We tend to lag areas at the same latitude due to the marine influence. So I get it with Pittsburg but the maps definitely off for the island especially. Even Bradfords (hopefully they will all be dead soon, pitiful tree) are just starting to swell right on the south shore.

Yeah barely even bud swell on the earliest fruit trees here in the island. Only thing really up a crocus’s and the beginnings of daffodils.

It’s highly unlikely the 1300s event came from the Canary’s. That’s if it even was a tsunami. It’s possible it was surge related to 1,000 plus year hurricane or nor’easter. If it was a tsunami the possibility’s are endless, from a meteor hitting the Atlantic, a major earthquake in the Caribbean or off of Europe or some sort of marine landslide.

That one is highly suspect in my opinion. It’s next to impossible to maintain even a low end major with that much land interaction. As we saw with sandy NY harbor is extremely surge prone and therefore does not need major winds or pressure for a 15’ surge to form. I think that storm was likely a stronger version of Isias. Maybe hitting the Carolina’s as a major then riding the coast while interacting with a trough. Producing enhanced winds on the east side that probably did gust over 100mph. But likely with a very disrupted core and skewed wind field.

Yeah something like that. Maybe Carol 54 plus 5-10mph to account for increased water temps. That was the strongest purely tropical system in modern history in our area. 38 and the 44 great Atlantic hurricanes were undergoing extra tropical transition. That and increased forward speed had the effect of spreading the max sustained winds out from the center, especially on the eastern side. So equal distances from the eye east or west in 38 had huge impacts on winds. So 120 sustained with gusts to 145mph at the Hamptons beaches while more like 80 with gusts to 105mph at jones beach.

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s). The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time. 38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

I think we are more or less on the same page. As far as tropical activity, that’s an area where we need more data to make any firm conclusions. Obviously last season didn’t play out the way it was forecast. That’s the fascinating thing about climate change. One would think there would be a linear relationship between water temps and ACE. But there is so much more going on. personally I think the next decade sees an increase in weak, hybrid type sub tropic systems and a decrease in run of the mill cat 1/2 MDR systems. On the opposite side, I also think there will be an increase in the number of the highest end cat 5s.

Alright so let’s revisit this in the fall. For a guy who is definitely onboard with global warming you seem to be missing the point. Even if a -amo were to return, using a -2c basin wide threshold the +2c of warming from CC completely negates the -amo. We are in uncharted waters. Will there be dryer periods locally with potentially higher, high temps? Of course that’s why I mentioned flash droughts. But the overall curve is heading towards higher dews, higher mins and lower maxes.

I was thinking the same thing, multiple stations gusting over 45. Definitely had the feel of an advisory day too.

This reads as you’re wish list…. Water temps had absolutely nothing to do with the lack of tropical activity during the peak season. Moving forward a return to the -amo is nearly impossible as a result of CC as blue wave posted… Welcome to the world of higher dews, higher mins, lower maxes, flash floods and flash droughts…. I would be willing to bet the farm….

Depends on you’re location. If you live on atoll in the South Pacific it’s here… Radar looks like some bright banding so it’s definitely snowing above 5k. 32 at KMWN before the precip moves in.

Minus the Delmarva it makes sense using elevation and the late season. Obviously highly unlikely regardless below 2500’ south and 1500’ north.