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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    80% coastal hugger 10% classic benchmark blizzard 4% ots 1% inland inland is extremely rare, storms either cut west of the mountains or follow the coast
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Show me how many times a track like that has occurred… I’ll wait…. storms either hug the coast or go just west of the mountains. A coastal hugger ala 3/17 is the most likely outcome at this time
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely, I specifically remember the feb 94 storms going to the north shore for swim practice and being amazed at the difference in snow. That and the school closings
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. This is a ski area dream storm. At least as modeled currently. We need to thread the needle perfectly for the coast to score. Like Jm said 3/17
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Super amped inland runner is def possible without NAO help. This is a pretty 80s pattern. People forget that’s why the coast struggled with snow despite more cold air around.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I must have been in the heart of the squall in Jericho. Vis was less the 1/8 for a bit and got a half inch. Went into work for snow removal on the uws (just in case) and only a dusting
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    March 18 was the last time we had a true nor’easter. There is nothing like heavy snow and coastal flooding. March 93 while technically an inland runner was fascinating watching 12” slush around in the streets
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty similar on the uws. 6” looks like a lock, and with that a warning criteria storm
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Classic mid winter snow event ongoing. Near perfect flakes with minimal wind on uws. Snow globe stuff, now to keep it around for the Arctic blast next week. Maybe even start a pack!
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The south shore does suck for snow. But this one has a great wind direction out of the NNE so despite water temps being in the mid 40s near shore it wilL not matter. snowing nicely uws. Expecting 4” here and 6@ at home on the SS
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    For the time being, just interesting. The radar beam height and what’s evaporating close to the ground
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Strange precip hole right in the area expected to see the highest totals.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just thinking about yesterday’s event and deep snow cover in south Jersey. Had that not been there temps may not have cut it city southeast
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s a thing of beauty for peak climo. Allot would have to go wrong for us not to score in that pattern.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s generally the case in these types of setups. A couple hours of 1-2”/hr rates adds up fast. We have been so spoiled the last two decades with blockbusters that we forget this is a bread and butter event for our area, ask the 80s.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Even with temps now above freezing I’m having a ton of ice issues on campus. Luckily it’s winter break. Yesterday’s 19 really chilled paved and brick surfaces and it just takes time and a lot of salt to stop.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s a good call after getting burned Monday. 3” is just enough to plow and shovel, especially since it will be accumulating on all surfaces. Often in marginal event’s especially here in the city you may have 6” on the grass but on really an inch or two of slush on the pavement. There is still a decent upside depending on where banding sets up, someone in our area will see 8”.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You can include the city itself in that currently. On the uws currently sleet and freezing rain mix. Paved surfaces with a crunchy glaze. Not sure how long we can hold on to this.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I agree in regards to the nyc urban heat island. It hasn’t changed much in comparison to other city’s to our south which have experienced much more growth. In fact the NYC heat island was fully functional as early as the early 1900s. It’s impossible to say what any given airmass would have been like 25 years ago though. This wasn’t a true arctic cold shot with strong CAA to begin with.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Nothing better then a real cold snow storm. There were a bunch of good one in the 13/14-14/15 winters
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You can still put up big numbers if the lift is intense enough. Boston saw a 12” storm in December 03 which was supposed to be 2-4” but instead it snowed 2-4” an hour for a couple hours
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    One of our next big climate milestones will be a winter we’re it doesn’t drop below 20. That would bring us to zone 8 and introduce allot of semi tropical plants and trees (many more hardy palms) luckily we are already safe this winter with 19 at the park this morning.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Good trends for at least seeing accumulations for the city. The issue is, we will need 1/2” hr rates to overcome the warm ground for any pavement accumulation. That’s the snow removal side of me. I told my management I’m available if need be, but they are hesitant on making a call as yet on the uws. Colleges aren’t going to call in workers during winter break without a better guaranty. I like 1” colder surfaces CPk. 3” JFK. This one really splits the city
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Based on past similar events, there will likely be a northern band that produces some decent rates and that’s where you see 1-2”. While just north of that it’s all subsidence and a few flakes. It’s way too early to say where that band sets up.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best to go into this not expecting much. Rates will likely be light which means mostly a grass and car topper. Obviously this isn’t a true repeat of feb 5/6 10 but the net results are similar.
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