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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    All snow and starting to stick to colder surfaces on the UWS. What ever is left at the end of this isn’t going anywhere
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Our warm patterns always over preform in our new climate. We could see some very warm days in early feb. The worst part is that’s our prime snow climo. The last thing we want is to toss feb and have blocking re-emerge for March. That seems to happen about every other year now.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s exactly the issue, we aren’t going to get there on evaporational cooling alone. We need colder air to move into the surface. its A race
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Clearly nothing has been learned. Meteorology over modelology. I’m not saying a MEC is on the way but completely throwing in the towel at the juncture is laughable
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best day of the season today hands down at Stratton. 10” of low ratio stuff yesterday and 4” of Champaign powder overnight. That top powder layer was incredible, not the kind of setup southern Vermont sees often. Glades are good too go!
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m currently at Stratton and it’s about 10” and dumping about 2” an hour currently. So should end up around a foot. Definitely underwhelming this morning
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Good old fashioned ripping. 7” and easily 2-3”/hr SVT
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    2”/hr rates currently and quickly to 4”. Temp steady at 19 SVT
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Heavy snow finally after several hours of moderate rapidly hit 3”. SVT 1000’
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Stratton is right in the bullseye in the middle of those mountains and has the highest elevation. They tend to under measure though. Regardless this storm is going to make the winter. 18” with decent ratios (not fluff) will build a nice base to open things up.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Moderate snow with about an inch so far SVT
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Light snow has started here west Townsend SVT 1000’ expecting 18” here.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    How many times have we seen storms lost in the mid range only to be found again? If anything the amount of run to run change shows just about anything is possible. I would wait a bit before throwing up the victory flag for no snow. It would be impressive bad luck to make it to the end of this month with cold around and no snow
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    DC is way west of NYC, while it’s rare there are instances in this type of setup where they thump and nyc and Boston go right to rain. We are just so much closer to the ocean then DC. East wind is not your friend
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Right along the coast it could be -10 right now and it wouldn’t matter. Water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The wind direction is all wrong for CAD. Even Boston goes right to rain
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. And first and foremost Walt is an incredible resource for the board after having lost many great posters over the years. KFOK 2 degrees and it will be raining in a few hours
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    All they care about is snow. Wind and coastal flooding events generally do not receive much coverage until after the fact.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Damaging winds and major coastal flooding is hardly a non event. Plus with the ground frozen rock solid any heavy rain will quickly run of leading to potential flooding. I’m heading to Vermont anyway
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think something similar to 3/17 is possible maybe displaced 50 miles west. That would at least give the city some front end snow. Long Island and the jersey shore are toast in that scenario.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say this but when we have seen major storms like this in the past modeling tends to lock on early. I still think this ends up hugging the coast more then being inland though. That inland track is super rare. Totally different setup, but I like a muted version of March 93
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. I mean basic understanding of climatology shows how rare a track like the gfs is. I mean we are talking Sandy rare. Storms like to hug the coast or go west of the mountains. If we start seeing some cutter tracks then it’s time to worry about rain in Vermont. Otherwise keep an open mind
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    KFOK West Hampton just had one of its incredible temp rise events. 8 to 28 in less then an hour.
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