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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Look at where the low is positioned. It also stalled for days, so it was all easterly onshore flow. Similar to December 92. It’s only a matter of time before we see a similar scenario and the damage at the coast will be incredible. Ash Wednesday on the Jersey shore and Delmarva was more damaging then Sandy due to successive high tide cycles with 30 foot waves causing extreme beach erosion
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That event has always intrigued me. It’s far and above the highest all frozen Precipitation total for NYC. While it wasn’t a record snow event, from a snow removal perspective it’s even more challenging. That would produce some truly incredible and long lasting piles.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Sandy has by far the highest reoccurrence rate of any of the above at 1-600 years. The others are probably closer to 1-100 years. what I would love to see is a repeat of the March 1993 event triple phaser displaced 100 miles to the east. That would be our all time snow event
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Historically maybe, but I can guarantee the last few years that has begun to change as a function of lack of arctic sea ice. Also, for Long Island even historically. Bluewave could produce the numbers for ISP.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Here yeah, nothing new. We could still pull of a snow event later in March, but that has no staying power so deep winter is kicked
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Works better in places further for the ocean. Here in the north east, with NYC really being the Dividing line March is still a cold season month. Having lived in Maryland for 4 years for college, spring really does start to our Sw a few weeks earlier. wasted cold this week, I would happily take some spring like weather over cold and dry this time of year
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I purposely made a huge one on the uws after the last storm to see how long it will last. I’m up in Vermont currently but have to assume it’s going strong
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You forgot about hurricane season. Looks like another clear the alphabet season. I like our odds
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Do yourself a favor and cut the English Ivy at the base before it kills your trees. looks similar to what we had on the uws, maybe a little more sleet here as accumulation is greater.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty incredible ice Accretion on the trees on the uws. Just enough to be beautiful but not dangerous
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s actually not true, it’s 32.6 and hasn’t gone above 32.7 at the wantagh mesonet which is pretty much on the bay still getting a sleet pellet and freezing rain mix on the uws
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The uws is an icy mess, surprisingly decent coating on the trees too. Never made it above freezing. The only thing that That kept this from becoming a true ice storm is the precip intensity, when it was coming down heavy most of it ran off.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Actually ended up going over to heavy sleet long enough on the uws to cause a mess. It’s amazing how sleet can accumulate despite the piles of salt sanitation put down. Roads are a mess and there was just enough for me to plow the campus, about .5-1”
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Never saw a flake on the uws (other then flurries way earlier today) now it’s a sleet and rain mix. Very little accumulation or accretion. Def a warmer scenario then I thought
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The February 2010 storm didn’t have southerly winds. Snow on long island on a south wind is extremity rare. There was a ocean effect snow event on a SW wind return flow that NSWEATHER posted about. That was a once in a couple decade event.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If it were December this would be an easy forecast for anyone south and east of 80. Rain. With water temps in the upper 30s it makes it more challenging as marine influence is muted.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Time for an ons thread. Flakes are flying on the uws. I’m expecting 1” of snow followed by 1” of sleet and ice before a change over to rain here on the far uws. 2” of sleet/snow/ice is very hard to melt so I expect a slushy mess tomorrow morning here.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It will be a winter wonderland Friday right to the northern part of the city. Sleet is incredibly hard to melt so even if we go to a period of rain then dry slot your just not melting that. As I have said all along this is a northern part of the city, extreme north shore of Li north ping fest. South shore, and southern part of the city will quickly go to rain with an east wind.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s not actually true. South of sunrise highway east of the meadowbrook went to all rain on VDay 2007. I was living in Long Beach at the time and went to my parents in south wantagh and was shocked that there was no ice on the trees there. Meanwhile right down to the beach in Lb stayed frozen
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s a regular winter there. I’m sure their record seasonal is around 300” and snow depth 60”+. That’s probably the snowiest small city in the US outside of the western mountains
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. It’s always good to throw in a little historical precedent. I have been doing snow removal on the far uws while living on the south shore for about a decade. I have experienced many events with similar setups where we have significantly more frozen on the uws then the south shore. There have even been several events with plowable snow/ice on the uws where it’s mainly rain on the SS.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty unlikely it plays out that way this is one of those setups you do not want to be on the south shore, despite the colder water temps. This has been and always will be a city Nw storm. The northern parts of the city and the extreme north shore of the island are the big question, could be pretty high impact
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Again, I’m looking to pad totals and do some snow removal $$$$$$. That’s still a likely scenario. We have cold offshore water temps and some decent cold to start the event. I’m looking for 2-4” including sleet before a change to rain then dry slot. I bet there is snow on the ground Friday. I’m also in the far Nw part of the city, I can see the Gwb from campus.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Since when did you become so negative? Is this an all out snow storm for NYC? No. But can we tack a couple inches (including sleet) on to seasonal totals? Yes. I also look at things from a snow removal and overtime lens.
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