LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Super weighted question. It’s a yes and no that’s very location specific. Locally I would expect average wind speeds to decrease as there will be less arctic air to create cold air advection. CAA often drives our longest periods of sustained winds. Even more locally for the coast, summer sea breezes will decrease as the ocean continues to warm. On the high end I would suspect our highest wind gusts to increase, with stronger thunderstorms and hurricanes.
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Had enough sun finally to warm things up a bit to near 70. Onshore flow is pretty strong now and temps dropping. That will prevent severe storms from making it to the island, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some thunderstorms.
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Stuck in the junk. Sun is trying to break through, though on in Lynbrook.
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F Boston, 35 and misery mist… No thanks, I’d fly to Burlington for 30 and snow anytime….
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Like clockwork almost every year. I have a snowboarding trip planned to VT so I’m ok with this until after that.
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Amazing temp difference at the beach. Up by the board walk, comfortable 60s. Down right next to the water fridged 40s. The wind had just the slightest south component. Still no backdoor western Nassua, but the westerly wind has died to calm.
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Yeah I figured. Backdoors do not have that true deep cold you need. The craziest swings are out on the high plains. Like 80 to -10 in a few minutes…
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Would love to know if that was an Arctic front or back door
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Yeah that should save the valleys where most people live. However above 2000’ feet it’s plenty cold for accretion even with heavy rates. Someone in the southern greens is in for a ruff ride.
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Warmer outside then it is inside my apartment in Lynbrook currently… About to head down to Jones Beach. Hoping to catch the BDCF as it wives through.
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On the warm end it’s gotta be close. But for actual temp difference, an arctic front setup could easily beat that.
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Yeah I have been worried about this all week. I plan on going to the beach tomorrow. From a meteorological perspective it’s pretty awesome. The last time we saw something similar like 4 or 5 summers ago it was accompanied by a gust front that had 50mph gusts and created a sand storm. It felt like an enormous AC had just went on with the near instantaneous 20 degree temp drop. And everything was coming from the east, which is opposite of normal.
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If the flow is straight west JFK will actually be the warm spot for the area. More likely it’s the warm spot till like 1 or 2. It would take one hell of a westerly flow to completely negate low 40s water temps without the sea breeze eventually winning out.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Yeah. Hypercanes and adios ice caps. 7c in warming would leave large parts of the earth uninhabitable, that’s the places that aren’t underwater… But C02 is great!!!! -
Need some serious CAA this time of year to get the park below freezing. I’d say 35 for the low…
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Currently in West Hempstead and did not see any snow mix in.
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The north east Caribbean is really due for a major. Waters there accumulate heat over the course of years rather then seasons and rely on the upwelling caused by hurricanes for cooling. So essentially that’s an area of virgin OHC. As far as the rest of the Atlantic I think above average ACE is a safe bet. As far as exact landfall locations, I like the SE and gulf again. -
Don’t worry, the cold pool will send us the back door. Even if it doesn’t anywhere near the south shore will be significantly colder with water temps still around 40.
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Throw in the cold pool off New England and it’s a lock the back door is stronger then expected. I would much prefer the warmth but reality is reality.
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Yeah. This is definitely the snow hole of Long Island. Getting progressively worse as you head south, with Long Beach being the least snowy location.
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Almost an inch in Sw Nassua with a very presistent band of moderate rain. It’s actually brighter now then it was during mid afternoon.
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Looks to be a rather small VEI 4 eruption of a side vent with a recurrence time of 50 years or so. Cool to watch but a very small climate effect. The main cone has a recurrence time of something like 5,000 years and I would think would be much larger VEI 5 or 6.
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It was January of 2010 I believe
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I’ll never forget that day. I was living in Long Beach and working in new Hyde park. The strangest rain snow line I have ever seen. South of sunrise nothing but white rain, north of sunrise several inches of snow, and it stayed relatively constant up to new Hyde park. Usually the rain snow line sets up along the terminal moraine (northern state) Meanwhile steady moderate rain continues
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Great post. I have thought allot about what would happen in the absence of humans. A propensity towards longer harsher ice ages and shorter cooler inter glacial periods would eventually tip the scale in a runaway cooling towards snow ball earth. The question is what’s left when the suns expantion finally warms the planet enough to melt the ice. Likely single cell extemeaphile life. Which likely wouldn’t have enough time to evolve much further before it’s too warm for any life.
