LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved. Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair .
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Exactly, I have a bachelor party in MTK. If it’s going to be ruined let’s get a good soaking. It’s certainly on the table. But I could see a feb 5-6 10 situation as well .
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I’m sure it will somehow find a way on the south shore. This isn’t a lock yet. .
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I think this has a shot at eclipsing Katrina for the most outlying Us hurricane. Naples Alone is a very wealthy area. All the homes with salt water flooding need to be gutted. .
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Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era. Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise .
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Completion is unlikely with land interaction and shear. A larger wind field will increase surge issues as IKE increases though. So it’s a double edged sword. .
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Exactly. This is similar to what we saw with Katrina and more recently Fiona. When a storm is moving the same direction for an extended period of time, you have captured fetch. Where the storm caries with it, it’s enhanced sea state. And it’s moving over the warmest waters in the basin currently. We may have a true beast on our hands this time tomorrow .
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Ended with .01”. And yes it is incredible. The most localized intense drought you could dream up. I wonder if it has anything to do with increased water temps. Which would make sense, in that a place like Florida will constantly see convention from and sit just a few miles from the beach. We’ll see what strataform season brings. I doubt this can continue .
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.00” at the wantagh meso. Really just a bad joke at the point. .05” maybe with the tail End .
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Try 60mph. And it was a stronger storm during its tropical origins. It almost certainly had a fully intact inner core during its first land fall on eastern Long Island. I don’t think the lowest pressure was sampled either and was probably similar to Fiona. So both peak wind and surge were higher but in a small area just east of the track. What fiona had that 38 didn’t, was a much larger wind field and a lot more captured fetch. Hence the Terrible damage east of you along the coast. Regardless when winds are over 100mph your going to cause failure of almost all hardwood trees. .
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.40” at the wantagh meso. For once the south shore wasn’t shut out. Big waves tomorrow from fiona! .
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Should be one of the largest swells in years. Lots of wash overs and beach erosion. Long period swells are very energetic. .
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I’m just trying to wrap my head around what’s going to happen to sable island. If there is a worst place in the world to be during a storm of this magnitude it’s there. I hope they evacuate the 3 people (park workers) that live there. This is a game changer there .
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Sable island is in big trouble. I’m not saying it is completely washed away but seriously altered. The captured fetch in that scenario will produce waves up to 100’ and a ridiculous surge. .
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That sure was. I have a feeling we will See the rubber band snap back at some point. The south shore desert will run off like a champ and lead to epic basement flooding. .
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Agreed. You would want to see a cat 5 moving up to really get a 4 there. Luckily for them it’s a wealthy island with some of the best infrastructure in the world. Even wave and surge wise they are protected by offshore reefs. Great place to case a cane. Either way this is a prolific wave producer for the east coast so if anyone is coastal check out the waves later in the week. You will thank me. .
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A take home that’s always missed is this will Set the whole western Atlantic in motion. Large swells will effect the entire east coast causing deadly rip currents and beach erosion. Once clear of Hispaniola this has a good shot at getting to cat 4 and then later an expanding wind field will further the swell production. .
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And a massive swell producer. That a great track for a truly large swell. Assuming it’s a large cat 3 barreling up the coast .
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That one single connective area near the center is interesting. Lots of surprises in store due to warm water and peak climo .
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Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track .
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I think this has a 50/50 shot at dissipation. It does have peak climo and very warm water though. .
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It’s really really bad. More dead trees on the wantagh and southern state everyday. Amazing what a few miles can do. .
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Good for wantagh at least they got something. Here in Lynbrook, not even a drop. Heading into another extend dry period. I guess we will be adding to the dead tree count around here. Good thing i watered my plants last night, as I had a feeling this repeating pattern would continue .
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At least your area made a turnaround. Grass is pretty resilient and can bounce back after periods of being dormant. What I’m noticing out here on the island for areas that haven’t had any rain is the tree damage seems most severe in man made locations. For example parkway ramps. Ground water is gone in those locations. However when you look at undisturbed forest there is still enough ground water left for the trees to be hanging on. .
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Exactly. I’ll grab some pictures of Hempstead lake, they will be worth more then me trying to describe it. As we are heading into more Strataform rain season things will even out more, but the deficits will remain on the SS. .
