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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Storm is completely meh rain wise, some good lighting though which I’m currently enjoying
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The south shore of Nassau really is the destroyer of storms. Convection fires everywhere but there. I’m starting to think that the urban heat island may have something to do with it. It’s clearly not the ocean as eastern Suffolk does very well.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You need a larger sample size than that. If we we had obs from the 1800s you would see water temps in the low 30s. Ny harbor often froze allowing people to walk to nj. And a fair was held on the east river. All impossible now.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I posted about the earlier, but it’s a launch pad issue. If your no cooling water temps in the winter, the second full inclination hits it’s off to the races.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah it’s been incredible. Normally we may get a few days like this in august, but not July. I think the fact that our winter water temps never get that cold anymore is a big factor. Because it’s not like we have had any real heat. At this rate we will make low 80s at some point in august.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah LI is the hot spot on a west wind. JFK will do crazy numbers with a west wind. We also have by far the lowest soil moisture given the localized drought. So until the sea breeze kicks in, it’s torch land
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Amazing how western Long Island consistently gets jumped. I had a feeling the east end would get crushed. Farmingdale with .26”.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I mentioned earlier today that someone would be jumped. .10” so far in wantagh. a secondary screw zone seems to be centered around mid town Manhattan. And this is a reoccurring situation. Brooklyn, queens and the Bronx do well while mid town seems to repel convection. I believe it has to do with the extreme urban environment
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s going to be our main show. Let’s see if the super warm water temps help hold that together better then what would have happened a couple weeks ago, when similar looking cells went poof. Currently drizzling at Jones beach, still a good amount of people here despite the weather.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I agree on that being the time for island. Currently partly sunny at Jones beach. I just hope we don’t have one of the instances like we had with the last event where the western half of the island gets jumped. As in, the precip shield re-fires over the twin forks and SE New England
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll take the under for the island. However I could see this being the real deal form the city west. Also, somewhere north of the lie could get one of those stationary dumpers. I hope this event breaks the trend however.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. There needs to be organized lift. I think we all get some rain tomorrow with the obvious flooding threat being inland.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It was a beautiful beach day at Jones beach. Water is incredibly warm and turquoise, I would have to think surface water nearing 80. It’s also super dry here, we really need something to survive to the coast tomorrow
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Haha, has been a while since we talked about anything other than storms dying before they hit the coast
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Only a matter of time until that happens. We need major upgrades to our power System asap. We need to learn from Florida, and even more so the west pack. A cat one in Taiwan is a windy rainy day, throw in Bermuda too. Any power infrastructure above ground is using concrete reinforced poles
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, we have seen repeatedly the heat domes move to our north the last few summers. If you had to pin down what our future summer climate entails I would think lots of 90s with high dews and increased coastal convection once ocean water is near 80. The biggest threat we are facing is the loss of our hurricane buffer. Water temps in the high 60s low 70s used to protect us from major Hurricanes. A great example is 38 which was able to maintain major status because it was moving at 60mph. We are losing that category reducing buffer. And a major with wind gusts over 120mph will destroy our power grid. Think PR after Maria. No power for months.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    100 is going to be hard with the high dews. Just like it rarely hits 100+ in Florida but 95/80/110 is common. New normal
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Some serious training storms to our west. Simone’s getting flash flooding
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Surprised to hear that. Being that I’m a horticulturalist in Manhattan, I’ll take a hard pass. Even though I love records, that’s going to a be brutal one. 110+ with who’s knows what heat index. Imagine the subways after that.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Amazing. That’s exactly where I want to be. I have been doing a winter rental with friends in the general Stratton area for years. I absolutely love it there, and would like to experience more than just winter. I have witnessed some blockbuster storms there over the years. My favorite stretch was March 18. 3 storms back to back 18”, 36” and 20”. That’s a snow pack
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Not surprising. It’s only a matter of time before we get one of those extreme heat domes and crush all kinds of records. If the pac nw and Europe can do it, so can we.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think we will see a large number of sheared out tropical storms. MDR production should be above normal corresponding to warm water temps. Anything that finds a hole in the shear could go nuclear however.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Oceans closed to swimming yet again at Jones beach due to distant lighting from that central Jersey storm. Second time today yet it hasn’t rained for more than a couple minutes of drizzle. Super annoying for someone like myself who understands local meteorology. It’s not going to rain let alone have lighting at the beach today. The powers that be who are going by forecasts are convinced theses thunderstorms are coming.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Officially 7 drops of rain at Jones beach. We had clear thousands of people off the beach for an incoming thunderstorm (the states call) I would barely call it partly cloudy with a few drops. Blue sky to the south and east the entire time
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Gorgeous day at Jones beach full sunshine. Big differences between north and south shore.
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