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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. I think I stomped over 1000 today alone on the uws. They are here we are stuck with them. Bring on the waves from Franklin.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Still sheared to the south, agreed, though once out of the shear it’s bombs away. Just need to get a solid core to form
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Congrats on the move. Your definitely still part of this forum and will always be appreciated!
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Makes allot of sense, lots of effective shear. meanwhile poring sheet drizzle on the uws put an end to my day working outside.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Roll the dice enough times. I think some of the pre 1850 storms my have been misclassified as hurricanes. Things like derechos and hybrid/nor’easters. Not all but some. The real reoccurrence rate of a landfalling hurricane in the north east may be a little bit lower than what’s currently suggested. Still, there were some that were obviously majors like the great colonial, 1815 and of course 38. That’s the one I think we are really do for. Not as much weakening inducing cooler water protecting Long Island and New England anymore. So it’s just a matter of when. meanwhile, Franklin is looking excellent for a medium to large swell for early next week. That period where it’s moving north will produce some captured fetch.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Incredible! Watching an eyeball form live on radar. Probably a decent but stronger than the estimated 50mph 998 official landfall. Probably more like 65mph 992.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s just the way we like them, close enough to limit swell decay but not so close that we get into the circulation and end up with winds too strong. I’ll never forget Gustav 9/11/02. 10-12’ swells on Long Island in the morning with light winds turned to 50-60mph offshore winds by mid morning and poof the swell was gone. Extreme example but shows what happens when you get too close.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If the shear does relax and the Atmosphere looses that SAL, then yeah, it’s game time. Right in time for peak climo, so with OHC at record highs basin wide…. Watch out
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty interesting that Gert is still named because it has a couple thunderstorms hanging on well east of a mess of a low level swirl. Yet Emily has a textbook low level swirl and lost its name. For all intents and purposes Emily is a better defined low and would have been a major hurricane if it weren’t for strong shear.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I wouldn’t write off Franklin for a major. Plenty of warm water in its later life, and that area loves to produce majors historically
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, I feel like there is too much focus on winds and the structure of the storm. None of that matters when you’re pushing precipitable water values near 3” over serious mountains. There really aren’t any historical precedents for this. Except maybe some typhoons in places like the Philippines. There are going to be incredible videos of arroyos turning into raging torrents
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .00” at the wantagh meso. Impressive how tight the gradient was right along the south shore. meanwhile it took me an extra hour to get to work on the uws, driving through a flooded out cross island
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Similar. Except the area of cold water (buffer) is much larger and significantly colder. Speaking of which we are losing our buffer and will eventually (by the end of the century likely) be prime major hurricane coastline. Without the need for fast speed out of the Gulf Stream to limit weakening.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Not happening. Later in the season maybe. Needs to rocketing NE to survive the water tr is around 20c..
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah they aren’t the plague they were originally billed to be. We actually had more last summer on the uws than this summer. Finally a droughtless summer on the island I’m more interested in that.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best light show in a decade. It’s so rare to get that continuous lighting on the island. Memorable
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s no joke like watching a fire work show finally right now. Nom stop with numerous very intense nearby cloud to ground strikes. Watching from my outdoor covered porch spellbound. guess those supercells over Ohio held together
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely epic storm in lynbrook. Best in many many years. Currently continuous lighting. 50ish mph gusts to to start. Soooooo happy I woke up
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I think that area is our best best for anything significant. Has been producing tons of supercells. So obviously allot instability/shear with that zone heading east
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty epic super cells in eastern Ohio right now headed into PA. As per usual I doubt much survives for us later
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say it but I agree. I think too many people, pros included are warm water drunk so to speak. The Atlantic could be 40c and if there’s a ton of shear and dry air it doesn’t matter. That said, any storm that finds a moist low shear area has the potential to go nuclear. This is basically what long term climate models are forecasting. More cat 5s and less 1/2s relative to climatology.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Right…. Slow but not forgotten. Though I think some of the major forecast have a high bust potential.
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