LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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The most shocking thing is the low snow pack in the mountains out west. Ninos usually bring prolific snows to the California mountains especially.
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You’re not alone I love temp stats too. And interesting temp anomalies. Like the pine barrens.
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Riverdale, up along van Cortland park, is defined the coldest snowiest area of the city. It’s basically a different climate zone. Lots of open space (van cortland park is huge) and some hilly elevation, basically an extension of southern westchester.
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I’m about 2 miles NW of the Central Park observation spot. Cpk had an official low of 33 and the ground is frozen here at 120th and Broadway on campus. Pretty amazing how tight the urban heat island is. Just a little bit more open space up here on the far uws was enough to get to freezing. NYC has got to be one of the most unique weather environments on the planet.
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Pretty hard core snow showers to our north currently. They should at least survive into the northern suburbs.
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
See 97/98. I remember one of the nor’easters changing rain to extremely heavy dinner plate snow and dropping a quick inch. But it was rainstorm after rainstorm even with perfect benchmark tracks. Pacific jet on steroids will do that. Luckily, this isn’t as strong a nino. Hence my positivity for the jan24-feb24 period. We aren’t getting shut out this year. -
Jan 15 -Feb 15 winter. Nino climo. Be there, aloha.
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I was in college at Towson U from 00-04. Winter of 02/03 was absolutely epic. They were using bulldozers to move the snow on the beltway after the Presidents’ Day storm. We had a legit layered snow pack that lasted deep into March. Real winters once existed in the mid Atlantic.
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Congrats Mt Washington. Given that airmass you’re going to need to be above 4,000’ for snow.
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Read it, and other linked articles, thanks!!! Absolutely loved it. I think we are the two guys with the biggest passions for both meteo and geo on the board. I think it’s going to take a high end, high sulfur vie 7 for us to see a true winter in our lifetimes. Hopefully is comes from the least inhabited place, maybe Patagonia.
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Very true, on day 7 or 8 out of 12 after sandy I abandoned my house and went and stayed with my grandma in queens. The air temp in the house had dropped to like 50 degrees and it was only going down. That’s when the buzz from the storm wore off and it just sucked.
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Kicking the can as always. Honestly without a SSW or something or that magnitude, it’s best just to not look at the long range and enjoy the holidays. Strong/super nino climo is pretty much a lock for a warm December.
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Mega pacific jet streak will do that. Closing the shades until that changes. Strong nino December, par, for the course.
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Getting a couple house shakers now. Definitely over 40mph.
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Pretty meh in sw Nassau. next batch of rain looks legit. That’s where some real deal flooding could happen. Winds will be run of the mill low end advisory.
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Bingo. This is super important. If those years during a much cooler period were snowless, then what hope do we have now. I’m sticking to my guns if anything happens it’s in the Jan 15-Feb 15 period
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T-minus 5 minutes from attack from mjo812 This is to be expected with a strong nino. This winter is going to happen from Jan 15 to feb 15
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Par for the course. If I had to bet right now, this winter is Jan 15-feb 15. Nino is going to nino. I still like us for getting to at least normal, but it all happens in that span.
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That’s the thing, your going past Calc 3, and into the world of differential equations and discrete math. My roommate in college was a math wiz and couldn’t handle discrete math. It’s when the formulas fill the blackboard. That’s really what it takes for a meteo degree. Personally I think it’s super archaic. Understanding the bigger picture should be what it takes, not doing equations with a slide rule.
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Awesome, that was my dream as kid, but I do not have the math skills for a meteorology degree. It’s basically a math degree. I was able to pull off a bs In economics however. And that degree tells me, that, the salary sucks. Who can afford to live on Long Island with that salary range. (Not putting anyone down if you make less then that)
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I’d take March 1888 over that in a heartbeat. Hands down the greatest blizzard in our region in the last 200 years. Based on what I have read the snow in the park was way under measured. It was likely our largest total of all time using modern measuring. The pics of tunnels cut through drifts in Brooklyn are on a level we have never seen. Hurricane force gusts and 30”+ totals.
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That’s partially true. It’s rare we have a snowstorm where it’s snowing in the teens. Arctic air usually means clear skies and strong CAA. You really want to be right on the boundary where it’s just cold enough.
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I never like to see Alaska consistently cold. I’m willing to toss December, went into it with that thinking based on Nino climo. Jan/feb have potential. Wether they really produce or are just average may come down to if we see a SSW event.
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Not sure why you you’re not grasping what I’m saying. Pre 1980s there was significantly more sea ice in the fall then there is now. As the summer melt out now exposes more area to solar insulation. Thus warmer fall/early winter temps in the Arctic our obvious cold air source. The Arctic Ocean still freezes over each winter though, and the darkness allows to cold to reload later in the winter. Thus exposing us to better source airmass’s later in the winter.
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Had a nice burst of snow on the uws, more than just flurries for a couple minutes.
