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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Exactly, I’m just south of the JWB at almost 200’ and have seen so many storms over the years surprise compared to the rest of the city. In marginal setups upper Manhattan and the Bronx can surprise.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Exactly, I work at Barnard/Columbia and run snow removal for Barnard. I can’t think of a better person to accurately account for the park. (Granted I’m 1 mile Nw and a tiny bit higher; but we have had several over 1 inch events during that stretch, they may have been at night or quickly melted but I need to start a better log of snow removal- 3,610 replies
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Just need to follow nino climo. That’s been my plan since the fall. Plus the fact that our winters are becoming increasingly backloaded as we need to build sea ice in the Arctic.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Another dream crusher for the coast. I’ll be on snow removal overtime regardless on the uws. I have experienced this type of setup many times the last few years were we snow a few inch’s here at 120th street and get a grassy coating on the south shore of the island. So I’ll go with that based on precedent. I think as far as actual impact that next storm could be the real deal for the coast. We had major beach erosion during the fall. And the last storm really dug deep. Lido beach is a 8 foot cliff currently, and another major hit could be serious. .- 3,610 replies
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True, if you really love snow on a level that it dictates your life I would pick Valdez Alaska above 5000’. You’re going to average close to 1000” a year. That’s the ultimate sweet spot.
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The park definitely had an inch during the early March storm last year. It just wasn’t measured properly. Not that it matters, it’s been a garbage streak.
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You can still score really well in the greens of Vermont above 2,000” were real estate and amenity’s exist. I mean they had a 40”+ storm last year and the snow banks were mind boggling due to the tremendous water content. And then of course there’s the good old tug hill, but that’s about as isolated as it gets. So if I were to choose a spot that’s only a few hours from Boston and 4ish from nyc it’s the southern greens.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
There’s absolutely nothing unusual about that. There’s a reason Boston averages nearly double NYC and NYC averages nearly double DCA. The airmass is just too marginal. I have been saying for months this winter is 1/15-2/15- 3,610 replies
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Yeah, I agree, I’ll take a beast of a nor’easters (potentially the strongest in a decade) over the 1” of slush this weekend..
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My thing had always been, Alaskas gain is our pain, and vice versa. When they are roasting -epo we score. We need that to change big time or we are already in life support. I don’t think we completely strike out like last year but it’s an uphill battle.
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Merry Christmas, to my weather extended family. Been on this board since 2011, that’s a long time. Hope everyone had a nice day irregardless of religion. Pretty typical Christmas weather these days. To think it was -01 for my first Christmas…
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That’s exactly it. It’s what November was pre 1990. I would even stretch to there were Octobers in the mid 1800s that were comparable to what December is now. The entire global system is so out of wack that, extremes can and still do happen, so it’s not like we aren’t going to see major snow storms anymore. We just need things to go our way. Which as of right now, they most certainly aren’t.
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That super long fetch originating all the way down in the Caribbean did its job with some of the highest wave high we have seen since sandy. Had tides lined up this would have been a major disaster. Even still, I witnessed some severe erosion. Especially at lido beach in long beach where a 8’ cliff snow exists for beach access. I have the vids but they will not posts- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah. If you saw my posts from a few days ago, it’s the fetch starting all the way down in the Caribbean. Largest fetch I have ever seen on the east coast, so despite winds not being incredible, the distance did its job.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Largest surf since sandy, is going to cause major beach erosion as we approach high tide. I’m heading down to take pics and videos.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Starting to roar. The offshore waves heights are mind boggling. Pushing 30 feet south of us which means with continued fetch we could be over 30 feet in the morning. Once a decade fetch event occurring. Major beach wash overs coming.- 489 replies
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Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Yup, I just posted in the NYC thread, everyone thought Isias was meh, until it went full ballistic. Just like now, you could see the obs down south. This one’s going to bite, hard. -
Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Obs from the Carolina’s, say this is real. Very impressive for a non tropical event down there. And the seas are just nuts, with a huge fetch. 27’ at 14 seconds off South Carolina doesn’t happen often. -
Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The same thing happened with Isias. It was meh, until it went ballistic. Looking at the obs down south, we should see something similar wind wise.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Seriously impressive observations coming out of that area. If that makes it up here this is going to be a very high impact event. Seas peaked at 33’ during sandy at 44065 Ny harbor buoy. Seeing high 20’s in the Carolina’s is very impressive.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The wave heights of the Carolina’s are nuts. 27 feet at 14 seconds! If that translates up here (it should) this could be a very high impact erosion event. Timing is off however with high tides and peak surge, and obviously the moon phase however.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Those are near record seas for a non tropical event that far south. This storm is the real deal.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Based on buoy observations from down south, this storm means business for the coast. Huge fetch area, will build seas over 20’ and periods high enough to cause wash overs and severe beach erosion.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This one has juice. There was a niño storm in December 94, that split one of the big silver maples in my parents house back yard. Similar track, and winds roared, probably 70+. Lots of trees down on the south shore. I was young but one of the underrated events I remember.- 489 replies
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That’s a pretty incredible fetch for the east coast. That would definitely build seas over 20’. Luckily we are in low astronomical tides at the time. Otherwise there would be a serious coastal flooding and erosion threat.- 489 replies
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