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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If you told me 3 hours ago the heaviest stuff was yet to come I would say your nuts. But here we are. I just witnessed multiple close CTG strikes. Back to 2”+ hour rates too. Going to be major basement flooding again.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Extremely loud thunder in lynbrook. Just woke me up. Here we go again.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s what I’m worried about. The basement apartment below me flooded with 5’ of water last year with the 8” rain event. It wasn’t a good scene. This is an extremely efficient rain event like we have seen the last decade with increasing reoccurrence times. Radar often doesn’t do justice to the rates in the center of these plumes.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Had a 5 minute burst of rain in lynbrook that was the heaviest i have ever experienced without lightning. Extremely loud, sounded like hail and was near white out. Must have been brief rates near 5-6” an hour. Luckily short lived.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Ernesto looks the best it has its whole life on visible currently. Perfectly symmetrical with a nice eye. Gulf Stream OHC!
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Continues to pour in western Nassau, round after round after round. Hopefully this is the last batch as the radar is clearer to the south now.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is actually a very interesting setup for swell generation aimed at the east coast. Normally in a more symmetrical hurricane swell aimed at the east coast which is generated in the SE quadrant has to pass through equally strong opposing winds as it passes through the NW quadrant knocking down wave heights significantly. In this case there is much less opposing wind so swell will be free to exit. This weekend should be very interesting as beaches are still in full summer swing. Usually these types of events occur in September when the crowds are gone.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This year has been more quality versus quantity so far. We're on the 'E' storm. Some of the more recent high number of named storm seasons also saw a lot of weaker TCs and ST systems that formed in the early months. This year we've only had two weak systems develop that did not become hurricanes. Even Chris probably would have become a BOC 'cane given more time over water. I suppose we may still see a plethora of central Atlantic systems form at higher latitudes during September and October besides the more potent southerly systems. But overall, I don't think this year would be remembered by busting on total number of named storms if indeed we do witness a significant number of intense hurricanes. Again, quality over quantity. 2017 was a horrible record season that did not hit 20 named storms. Only 17 formed that year, in fact. 2017 is a great example. If everything aligns properly durning peak we could easily see several majors back to back. Very high impact high end majors given the OHC being in uncharted territory. I always think back to 92, a lack luster season, that produced a storm that if 20 miles further north would have changed this country forever.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Highly unlikely especially Sunday. Despite distance Ernesto is going to be a very large storm, with a huge fetch area. So it’s going to produce a huge long period swell. Add strong sw winds Sunday ahead of the cold front and it’s a perfect storm dangerous rips. I expect all guarded Beachs to be red flagged and closed. This is the type of swell we usually see in September after peak season. Also expect wash overs and more erosion. Long period swells are especially energetic and tend to wash right over beaches. So a lake where this beach usually is.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, it’s right on pace. Too much focus on looking for cat 5 symmetry. The Largest impacts for the for the US are going to be high surf and rip currents, moderate beach erosion and wash overs. Regardless of final peak intensity this storm is forecast to become very large increasing fetch and thus wave heights. Because it’s mid August and prime beach season this is a dangerous situation for swimmers.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    There are beasts on the horizon. Even if we do not make the forecast number of storms (who cares about naked swirls in the mid Atlantic anyway) all it takes is a couple landfalling majors to make for a high impact memorable season.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Ugh. A small, rapidly moving hurricane in the Caribbean…. It maybe used .0001 of the potential energy stored. It’s very difficult to explain in words so I’m not going to go there. If you understand, you understand.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yep, it’s been traveling over more heat content than most classic storms from the past. Throw that in with rapid movement and relatively small size and there is almost no up welling cooler water temps. It’s hard to up well when your 28c therm is 1000 meters deep.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That oceanic heat content hasn’t been disturbed in a few years: add that to the fast movement and it’s just heat heat heat. Being able to overcome normal factors…..
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    For the Atlantic absolutely. What I think we need to start considering is the NPAC where waters have always been warmer. Hence the many intense super typhoons over the years.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah definitely dark with rolling thunder but nothing like the other night, we’ll see. At least I’ll take the rain.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Actually pouring finally in lynbrook, after the first storm fell apart. Not severe by any means but decent.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s pretty much inevitable this time of year on western long Long Island. Somehow eastern suffers ok does better despite being further into the ocean.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Had to have had over an inch here as the hail core moved through. I have a great video that’s on my social:
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Winds were like 40ish, but what Impressed me was the hail.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best storm in several years in south nassua. Lots of pea sized hail
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If this misses the city I’m going to lose it!
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Very impressive upwelling event off of New Jersey the last 2 days. Water temps went from 72 to 61! That’s huge, and probably historic. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s really strange. Because even the east end had storms yesterday and today. And currently there is a nice line of storms over Nantucket. One of yhese days I’ll figure it out. But we have gone to flash drought for sure.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Going to be a 00.00” and another 00 for today on the south shore. I guess this was the climo before we started changing the environment 200 years ago. The extreme south shore was an extension from of the pine barrens. For lack of water not lack the of the soil nutrients.
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